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Hezbollah holds Israel file in Lebanon – 26 Feb 2018
US Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Satterfield has undertaken an unusual weekslong shuttle diplomacy mission between Israel and Lebanon following an agreement between Lebanon and a consortium of France’s Total, Italy’s Eni and Russia’s Novatek to begin offshore exploration of a disputed offshore gas field known as Block 9.
The decision by the Lebanese government to proceed with Block 9 exploration was labeled as “very, very challenging and provocative” by Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman. On Feb. 9, Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz said that diplomacy “is preferable to threats” but added later, addressing Beirut, “Don’t provoke us, and don’t explore in or even get close to the disputed line-of-contact.”
As Joseph Macaron reports, “When Lebanese Armed Forces commander Gen. Joseph Aoun asked what his troops should do if Israel violated Lebanese waters, Prime Minister Saad Hariri promptly responded, ‘You shoot at them.’”
Hariri’s unequivocal retort reflects what is known to any casual observer of Lebanese politics: the Israel file is held solely by Hezbollah. Whether Satterfield speaks to Hariri, President Michel Aoun, Foreign Minister Gebran Basil or others in the Lebanese government, when the subject is Israel, the messages are conveyed to Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, who orchestrates what is conveyed back.
And given that the first exploration well for Block 9 is not scheduled to be drilled until next year, the US-brokered Israel-Lebanon talks may ultimately have even greater value as a precedent for a back channel to Hezbollah, and by extension Iran, about developments in Syria rather than in defusing a possible confrontation in 2019. Next year is a seeming eternity given the heightened risk of war among the major regional and international powers in Syria, as we explained here two weeks ago.
Washington may realize that it needs a diplomatic complement to its position in Syria beyond the deliberations at the Security Council. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Feb. 13, that, in addition to the 2,000 US troops that will remain in Syria, the United States and its coalition allies “control 30% of the Syrian territory, and control a large amount of population, and control a large amount of Syria’s oil fields.”
The question is how durable that leverage will be, and how reassuring it is to Israel, after Syrian anti-aircraft fire caused an Israeli F-16 to crash this month. The diplomatic agenda and military tempo in Syria are set by Russia, Iran and Turkey. Israel knows it can’t count solely on Russia to keep the peace on its northern border. Just six months ago, Iran settled the issue of the Iraqi Kurdish referendum on Tehran’s terms by working with and through the Iraqi government and the Popular Mobilization Units, and by dividing the Iraqi Kurdish groups.
The US position in Syria does not approach its position in Iraq. Tillerson and the US leadership may be wary of being exposed, and outplayed again, by Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani.
Satterfield’s shuttle diplomacy cannot ultimately be separated from either Syria or the broader issues in the region. There can be no talk about Block 9 without discussing the Blue Line, the disputed border demarcation between Israel and Lebanon, which cannot be disentangled from the Syria question, which in turn is connected to the relationships between the United States, Israel and Iran.
The Satterfield mission and the prospects of a back channel to Hezbollah and Iran, via the Lebanese government, may provide an opening to de-escalating a potential conflict on Israel’s borders, while beginning the needed spadework for an eventual settlement of Israel-Lebanon border issues. www.mesop.de |