Putin plays cop with Israel and Iran over Syria
“Israel considers the joint Iran-Hezbollah precision project (precision-guided missiles) to be a strategic threat that will make Israel more vulnerable in the next conflict than it is today,” writes Ben Caspit. “Precision missiles will allow Hezbollah to interfere with Israeli air force activities, target major infrastructures and population centers, and cause Israel considerable damage. … The Security Cabinet has deemed the precision project a “red line” for Israel and grounds for war. Thwarting the project at almost any cost has been made a top priority. While Israel has launched numerous attacks on this project over the past two years, it limited these attacks to Syrian territory only. According to foreign reports, the Israeli air force attacked a Syrian research center, supply convoys and aerial transports landing at Damascus International Airport, where the cargo was loaded on trucks headed to Beirut.”
“It took the Iranians quite a while to realize that Israel was serious,” Caspit continues. “Right now, it seems like they are changing their tactics. They are no longer flying supplies into Damascus and transporting them over land to Beirut. From now on, their Boeings will land in Beirut on direct flights from Tehran. While this will expose the Lebanese government to international pressure and even sanctions, it will put a sudden stop to Israeli attacks on the transports. Iran does not believe that Israel would dare to down a Boeing jet. Doing so would open the gates of Hell.”
“Israel believes that this change to Iran’s modus operandi, with its transition to direct flights from Teheran, is not simply the result of many hundreds of attacks on convoys by the Israeli air force,” explains Caspit. “It can also be attributed to Russian pressure. Having turned a cold shoulder to Netanyahu recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin made it clear to the Iranians as well that he will not tolerate any activity that threatens stability in Syria. He regards both Israel and Iran as two neighborhood punks who are trying to disturb the public order, and he sees himself as the neighborhood cop who will not allow that to happen. That is why Iran made the decision to skip Syria entirely and use direct flights to Lebanon instead. That is why the number of Israeli attacks on Syrian territory has declined significantly recently.”
Akiva Eldar links developments on Israel’s northern border with its Hamas initiative. “On Nov. 20, Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot said during a tour of the Syrian border that Iran had been far less successful than it had hoped in transferring precision weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon,” Eldar writes. “Since the most recent cease-fire was reached with Hamas on Nov. 13, calm appears to have been restored to the Gaza Strip. Hamas is reining in the violent demonstrations along the border with Israel and Eizenkot is reining in the security cabinet ministers. Military affairs commentator for Haaretz Amos Harel reported Nov. 16 that Israeli officials believe the restored calm will also enable progress in contacts on a long-term cease-fire deal with Hamas.”
Erdogan takes zero-sum approach to YPG
“Officials in Ankara are convinced that Washington is stonewalling their efforts to curb and defeat the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and its political wing, the Democratic Union Party (PYD),” writes Semih Idiz. “The prevailing belief is that Washington wants to establish some kind of autonomous Kurdish region in northern Syria, similar to one in Iraq, where it hopes to maintain a military foothold for the foreseeable future with a view toward pursuing its agenda in the Middle East.”
Idiz adds, “At a time when Turkey is combating separatist terrorism by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) at home, the thought that the area along its long border with Syria could be administered by YPG/PYD elements is a nightmare scenario for Ankara.”
He continues, “Ankara appears determined to take a zero-sum approach to the YPG issue and is giving no indication that it is amenable to a negotiated settlement, especially one that legitimizes the YPG in any way. This, however, has prompted Washington to take a series of measures that has only fueled Ankara’s suspicions. …Turkish and US forces in northern Syria recently began joint patrols outside of the city of Manbij, which Ankara also wants to be free of YPG fighters. This was promptly followed by an announcement from Washington that joint US-YPG patrols had started along Syria’s border with Turkey, causing untold irritation on the Turkish side. Ankara rejects any attempt by Washington to establish equivalence between Turkey and the YPG.”
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