MESOPOTAMIA NEWS : TRUMP’S WITHDRAWAL FROM SYRIA / CONSEQUENCES BY INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR – RESSOURCES VOICES – 13 Oct 2019
What happened: President Trump has ordered a withdrawal of remaining US forces in northern Syria as Turkish-backed forces have continued to push south after seizing key border downs.
There are four major immediate consequences:
- Russia and the regime will expand east amidst the chaos. No actor has the ability to stabilize eastern Syria as U.S. forces withdraw. The U.S. partner force, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), will likely now pursue a deal with Russia and the Assad regime in a desperate attempt to halt Turkey’s advance. This could lead to either greater escalation or a new round of negotiations between Turkey and Russia over eastern Syria. The SDF will almost certainly want to continue to fight back against Turkish proxy forces. Russia and Assad seek access to valuable oil fields and other infrastructure in eastern Syria.
- Iran will expand and consolidate its cross-border military presence. In addition to Russia and the Assad regime, Iran will likely now expand into eastern Syria to take up new positions, recruit, and gain access to valuable oil resources. Expanded presence in eastern Syria will enable Iran to further consolidate in Iraq and threaten U.S. forces there.
- ISIS could double its size in coming days. The SDF is holding 10,000 ISIS fighters in 20 makeshift detention facilities across northeastern Syria, roughly the size of the ISIS force already waging an insurgency in Syria. ISIS has already launched its campaign to break out prisoners and committed family members from prisons and IDP camps. ISIS detonated a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) outside a prison in Hasaka City on October 12. Over 800 ISIS family members escaped an IDP camp in Ayn Issa, north of Raqqa City, on October 13.
- Iraq next? Iraq is on the verge of a civil war. Mass protests throughout the Shi’a-majority south against the Iraqi government have turned violent. Iranian proxies have stepped in to suppress the protest movement through targeted violence against activists, journalists, and protest leaders. Iran may be preparing to send in military forces that it previously used to suppress protests in Syria and Iran. The burden to stabilize Iraq has increased. President Trump’s maximum pressure strategy requires denying Iraq to Iran.
Quotes from Our Experts:
Kimberly Kagan
President and Founder, Institute for the Study of War and member of the Congressional Syria Study Group
“President Trump’s decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Syria is a terrible mistake. The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria will mark a watershed moment in American history “
“ISIS will reconstitute in some form. It will pose a danger not only to Iraq and Syria, but to Europe, the United States, and the rest of the world. It will plan and inspire attacks, rally followers, and rekindle the hopes of terrorist groups around the world”
“The U.S. has undermined its credibility with its allies and partners and its reputation will suffer for a generation. America will find itself more alone than ever at moments of global need”
“President Trump has undermined his own maximum pressure strategy against Iran by ceding Eastern Syria and its important oil and natural gas resources to Iran, the Assad Regime, and Russia”
Colonel Ketti Davison, US Army (retired)
Director of Innovation and Tradecraft, Institute for the Study of War
“Turkey told President Trump that this would be a counter-ISIS operation. Now is the time for Turkey to prove it will counter ISIS through meaningful actions”
“Jihadists emboldened by the US withdrawal from Syria will almost certainly attempt to repeat this success by compelling a US withdrawal from Iraq”
Jennifer Cafarella
Research Director, Institute for the Study of War
“The U.S. will look back on how fifty American special operations forces along the border was enough to make the difference between chaos and the chance for a political compromise”
“This is President Trump’s defining mistake in the Middle East”
ISW will continue to provide breaking analysis on this crisis.
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