MESOPOTAMIA NEWS TODAYS ANALYSIS : Syria is an increasingly dangerous chessboard for Iran in the Middle East
Iran has so many forces in Syria that in 2018 the US included in its official policy the “removal of all Iranian-led forces and proxies from the country.”
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN NOVEMBER 20, 2019
Iran has spent many years exploiting the weakness of the Syrian regime to entrench its forces in the country, hoping to come out of the Syrian civil war in a much stronger position in the Middle East. It is part of Iran’s grand strategy through which it has also sought to take over parts of Iraq’s government and lever unprecedented influence over Lebanon’s political system. There isn’t much standing in Iran’s way, as the US has indicated its long-term objective is to leave Syria and its role in Iraq is tailored only to fighting ISIS. Iran’s role in Syria increasingly threatens Israel, as revealed through recent tensions and numerous air strikes on Iranian targets that Israel has said it carried out over the years.
Iran’s role in Iraq has a new spotlight on it after 700 pages of documents were leaked from Iran’s intelligence services to The Intercept and The New York Times. In Syria Iran’s role is more murky but it is also well known. Iran has so many forces in Syria that in 2018 the US included in its official policy the “removal of all Iranian-led forces and proxies from the country.” US recent studies, such as the Defense Intelligence Agency, include classified information on Iran’s presence, but a recent Inspector General report about the US-led operations against ISIS noted that “the bulk of Iranian-commander forces were concentrated in the western half of Syria prior to the USS withdrawal.” Iranian-backed militias are in close proximity to US forces “as part of the Iranian goal of forging ground lines of communications from the Iraqi border.”
We also know that satellite images from ImageSat International show Iran continues construction of its Imam Ali base near Albukamal on the Iraqi border. Other reports indicated that Iran had up to 19 bases in Syria in 2018.
From Iran’s perspective, Syria has been a key ally and a conduit for arms shipments to Hezbollah. This has gone back decades. But Iran knew in the early 200s that the Assad regime was flirting with the West and that if it could balance Iran’s role it would like to. The uprising in 2011 led the regime deeper into the hands of Iran, making it more dependent on Iran and Russia. Increasingly the regime was hollowed out, losing tens of thousands of casualties that it couldn’t replace and inviting in more of the IRGC and IRGC allies such as Hezbollah and Shi’ites recruited from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq. Syria became a modern version of what Germany looked like during the Thirty Years War, a kind of massive black hole of suffering upon which was built a chess board for foreign powers.
The Syrian civil war began as one between Syrians. It looked like Syria had fallen into brief chaos, like Libya in 2011, but in fact the regime’s crackdown and the arming of the rebellion led to years of strife and destruction. Little by little, foreign actors moved in. Hezbollah in 2012-2013, ISIS and 50,000 of its foreign fighters in 2014, Russia in 2015, Turkey in 2016, and of course the US and Iran. The US, backing the Syrian Democratic Forces, came to control a third of Syria. Turkey took over another twenty percent. The regime eventually defeated the rebels in the south in the summer of 2018. But the regime then watched as Russia gave the approval for Turkish operation against Kurdish fighters in Afrin in January 2018 and also signed an Idlib ceasefire in September 2018. Russia was now the guarantor of Turkey’s role, because Russia was selling Turkey the S-400 air defense system. Russia, the ally of the Syrian regime, was also a kind of enabler of Turkey’s role. Russia could turn over more areas or not. It signed another deal on October 22 enabling Turkey to grab areas it had taken from the SDF and the Americans in October.
Now Syria appears partitioned, between Turkey in the north, a fading US influence in the east and south, and a growing Iranian influence in the south. Russia plays the big grandmaster watching all of this take place. But Russia is not interested in confronting the US or Iran or Turkey. Russia’s goal is to use Sochi and Astana, and even Geneva, to bring Iran and Turkey to the table again and again. The US is cut-out from this process and the US anyway sought to exclude its own SDF partners from Geneva. So long term, the US role in Syria is likely going to be deeply reduced or end.
But Iran’s role will grow. The problem for Iran is it has too many missions in Syria. It wants to cement its bases. It wants to build its “land bridge” to the sea and Hezbollah with an off-ramp toward the Golan. It wants to sign deals with Assad. And it wants to project influence along the Euphrates river valley towards Deir Ezzor.