MESOPOTAMIA NEWS THE NEXT WAR : Military Expert Pavel Felgenhauer: Russia Will Defend Armenia From The Turks; If Necessary, Russia Will Save Armenia With A Nuclear Strike

Russia | Special Dispatch No. 8875  – 3 August 2020  MEMRI

On July 29, Turkey announced the launch of joint large-scale tactical and tactical flight exercises involving Turkish and Azerbaijani ground forces and air forces.[1] The exercises, taking place July 29-August 10, include live firing and involve some 5,000 personnel, 150 units of military armored vehicles, up to 150 units of artillery and air defense systems, and up to 30 jets, helicopters and drones. [2] They are being held in Azerbaijan, in the areas of Baku, Nakhchivan, Ganja, Kurdamir and Yevlakh. Ground exercises are being held in Baku and Nakhchivan August 1-5, with artillery, armored vehicles, and mortars striking simulated targets.[3]

It should be noted that earlier that month, on July 12, tensions rose once again on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border, when Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry accused Armenia of attempting to attack Azerbaijan’s positions at the Tovuz section of the border with artillery systems. “Starting from the afternoon on July 12, units of the Armenian armed forces, grossly violating the ceasefire on the direction of the Tovuz region of the Azerbaijani-Armenian state border, were subjected to fire on our positions using artillery mounts. There are losses on both sides. Currently, there are fights in this direction. Our units control the operational situation,” the Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry reported.[4]

However, Armenian Defense Ministry spokesperson Shushan Stepanyan reported on Facebook that on July 12 Azerbaijan had attempted to violate the Armenian state border near the Tavush region, but that all these attempts had been thwarted. “At about 12:30 today, servicemen of the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan, for reasons unknown to us, attempted to violate the state border of the Republic of Armenia in an UAZ vehicle in the direction of Tavush,” Stepayan said, adding that after a warning from the Armenian side, the Azerbaijani servicemen returned to their positions. Nevertheless, the Azerbaijani servicemen made a second attempt on the Armenian border, using artillery fire, but retreated, incurring loss in manpower.[5]

The Azerbaijan-Armenia clashes continued for three days. Azerbaijan reported that 12 personnel, including a general, had been killed,[6] and Armenia reported four servicemen killed.[7]  Commenting on the escalation at the border, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said: “As you are aware, on July 12, Azerbaijan attacked our border positions in the Tavush region. The Armed Forces of Armenia did not only repel the attacks but also inflicted significant damage on the adversary. The Azerbaijani side suffered numerous casualties, including military equipment and weapons with highly advanced technology. This is an explicit victory of military strength, tactics, and the military-industrial complex of Armenia.

“The damage to the morale of the adversary was even stronger. The domestic political situation in Azerbaijan is not stable due also to these military activities. This is leading the Azerbaijani leadership to resort to new provocations in order to redirect the social dissatisfaction towards Armenia and Artsakh [aka the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic].

“Amidst all these developments, I would like to outline several important points. First, Azerbaijan initiated an attack against the sovereign territory of Armenia. I must stress once again that the military positions that were under Azerbaijani attack during the last two weeks are within the sovereign territory of Armenia. Thereby, the accusations by Azerbaijan presenting the Armenian side as an aggressor are merely nonsense.

“Azerbaijan launched an attack when Armenia was engaged in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, even though Azerbaijan was refusing to negotiate with Artsakh, the main party to the conflict. All the attacks by Azerbaijan have been decisively repelled, and the Armenian side further strengthened its positions along the border. The Azerbaijani myth that its army can defeat the Armenian Army, and thus Armenia and Artsakh should make concessions has vanished.

“For a long time we have been urging Azerbaijan not to talk with us from the positions of force, warmongering and threat of use of force. And now we can confidently say that Armenia has both rejected the threat of use of force on the diplomatic table and showed in the battlefield that those claims are unfounded and do not reflect the real balance of power. When saying the real balance of power, I do not only speak about the number of troops or armaments, but rather the overall quality of their military actions and the level of command.

“Now we can confidently state that the Armenian Armed Forces and the Armenian Army not only demonstrated high combat efficiency, but also reiterated their reputation of the most efficient and intelligent army in the region. And this is not merely a statement, but a conclusion based on a detailed analysis of the events that have been taking place since July 12. Our army has been and remains the source of national pride and once again reiterated its status in the Tavush region…”[8]

Since July 17, both Armenia and Azerbaijan have noted that the border situation has been relatively calm.[9] However, tensions remain high as the Turkey-Azerbaijan military exercises begin.

Russian military expert Pavel Felgenhauer said in an interview published July 29 that the Turkish army’s entry into Azerbaijan “under the pretext” of joint Turkish-Azerbaijani military exercises is a serious escalation of the situation in the region. He argues that there are already concerns that an escalation would lead to a large-scale confrontation between the pro-Armenia Russia and the pro-Azerbaijan Turkey, and says that if there is a military clash, Turkey will demolish both the Armenian and Russian forces located in Armenia. This, however would mean a declaration of war on Russia, which under such circumstances may resort to the force of nuclear deterrence.

Below is the interview, as published by Rosbalt.ru:[10]

The Kremlin May Carry Out A Demonstration Strike An “Unpopulous” Area; This May Mean A War With NATO

“Turkish army’s entry into Azerbaijan territory under the pretext of military exercises is a serious escalation of the situation in Transcaucasia, says military expert Pavel Felgenhauer.

“Turkey’s troops practically invaded into the territory of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic – an exclave of Azerbaijan, which is separated from the rest of the country’s territory by Armenia and by the unrecognized [Republic of] Nagorno-Karabakh. Officially, this was done under the pretext of joint Turkish-Azerbaijani military exercises, which began on July 29.

“However, considering that these maneuvers will take place at a time of aggravation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, in which Turkey is traditionally taking the side of Azerbaijan, and that Yerevan is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the main member of which is Russia, there are already concerns that all these factors may lead to another Russian-Turkish confrontation, but this time on a much larger scale.

“Military expert Pavel Felgenhauer, with whom the Rosbalt interviewer discussed this topic, does not rule out the possibility that NATO might be drawn into such war, which will aggravate the situation even further.

“Q: In your opinion, in the current tense atmosphere, is the joint military exercises of the Turkish and Azerbaijani armies on the territory of Nakhichevan a demonstration of moral support for Baku in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, or is Turkish President Recep Erdoğan seriously ready to take [actions] on the Baku’s side?

“Felgenhauer: That’s a lot of moral support. Both Erdogan and his defense minister say that they will fight on the side of Azerbaijan, if it comes to that. Thus, they state their position, which, anyway, has always been like that. There are a number of problems here, including those related to the status of Nakhchivan, which was established by the Moscow Treaty of 1921 between the Turkish Republic and Soviet Russia. Now the Turks say that if Azerbaijan is going to have problems, they can intervene and this interference can be very serious

“Q: What will Russia do, if Turkey interferes in the conflict?

“Felgenhauer: Of course, such a development can lead to a war with Moscow. Russia will defend Armenia from the Turks. We keep military base in Gyumri precisely for this.

“Q: Well yes, because if Moscow in this case will not defend Armenia, then the question arises, why does the CSTO (of which Yerevan is also a member) exist at all?

“Felgenhauer: No, the main point is not CSTO. It is a fiction, because neither Kyrgyzstan, nor Kazakhstan, nor Tajikistan or Belarus, which are part of this organization, will fight in Transcaucasia under any circumstances. CSTO is not NATO, after all, when even Montenegro sent several soldiers to the last Trident Juncture (‘One Trident’) exercises. The Belarusian constitution, for example, prohibits the country’s troops to operate outside Belarus territory. The Central Asian republics, members of the CSTO, are also not going to fight in Transcaucasia. In other words, this issue concerns only Armenia and Russia, and other members of the CSTO, if something happens, will provide them mainly moral support.

“It must be noted that the Russian troops in Armenia are not entirely Russian by nationality: about 90 of their personnel are Armenians. It is an old imperial tradition – hiring locals for [military] service. It is simply cheaper than transporting contractors from Russia by plane.

“In any case, there is only one motorized rifle brigade, comprising about 4,000 personnel. In addition, there is also our aviation detachment, equipped with MiG-29 and anti-aircraft missile systems. Altogether, this is rather a symbolic combat force compared to the Turkey’s 3rd field army located on the other side of the border.

“The possibilities to strengthen our troops there are rather limited, because if something happens we will have to fight our way through Georgia. And the Georgians may not allow [the passage of our troops], in that case we will have to fight through their territory… One can, of course, bring up reinforcements by air. But it is difficult to transfer tank and motorized rifle brigades by air. In addition, the Turks also have very powerful modern aviation.

“In general, if there is a military clash, the Turks will demolish both the Armenian and Russian forces located in Armenia. But this will mean a war with Russia, which under such circumstances may resort to the forces of nuclear deterrence (in accordance with our defense doctrine).

“Q: Will Moscow make such a risky move?

“ Felgenhauer: Maybe it will. For example, the Kremlin will carry out a demonstration strike on an unpopulous mountainous area, or on some ground in Anatolia, to show that we are ready for this. But, on the other hand, this may mean a war with all NATO [members].

“The situation is quite serious, and it can aggravate instantly. The crossing of the Turkish-Azerbaijani border by Turkish troops to take part in these maneuvers is a very serious escalation, which in the worst case scenario could potentially lead to a nuclear war in a fairly short time. However, if a full-scale war between Azerbaijan and Armenia does not happen, then Turkey will not interfere in it either. One can always back out.”

[1] Ria.ru, July 29, 2020.

[2] Tass.com, July 30, 2020.

[3] Aa.com.tr, July 29, 2020. See also: Mod.gov.az/en/video-archive-047/?vid=31696.

[4] Mod.gov.az, July 12, 2020.

[5] Armradio.am, July 12, 2020.

[6] Tass.com, July 30, 2020; Mod.gov.az, July 12, 2020.

[7] Armenianweekly.com, July 15, 2020.

[8] Primeminister.am, July 23, 2020.

[9] Tass.com, July 30, 2020.

[10] Rosbalt.ru, July 29, 2020. The interviewer was conducted by Aleksandr Jelenin. See also MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 8864, Kommersant Columnist Yusin: Erdogan Is Pouring Kerosene On The Territorial Dispute Between Armenia And Azerbaijan, July 27, 2020.