Kyle OrtonVerified account @KyleWOrton – 10 July 2018
On the Asad Alliance side, yes, if Asad/Iran decide to attack #Idlib, Russia can do nothing and will join in. Even so, assuming Turkey does not fold, it’s not clear the regime coalition has the capacity for this offensive. Perhaps it does, but that shouldn’t be an assumption.
I am not sure that #Turkey will stand aside in Idlib. Dempsey is right that the Turks’ presence is “limited” but as a military-political matter (calling it a “red line”, coping with an influx of 2m refugees plus terrorists, space it gives to PKK) Ankara needs to hold its ground.
Michael Dempsey argues that after the pro-Asad forces roll over Deraa, Idlib is next, and then comes the east, against the U.S. partner, the #SDF/#PKK, unless the U.S. does some creative thinking and stays invested.
What Does Assad’s Southwestern Offensive Mean for the Future of Syria?
Michael P. Dempsey – July 9, 2018
More via www.mesop.de