Seth J. Frantzman
22 Min ·
As the US withdraws from part of Syria a lot of questions remain:
1. Will the US only leave the border area, staying in Deir Ezzor and demanding SDF continue to patrol that area.
2. Will SDF continue to patrol all its areas after Turkey invades.
3. Will US and international community demand SDF continue to run all the detainee facilities for ISIS, while also rubber-stamping Turkish operation.
4. The overall perception is that Turkey has a “right” to take over part of Syria, that security concerns give it a “right” to do so, as if it’s inevitable.
5. When Turkey invades how will the SDF respond, will it claim that the YPG is fighting Turkey and that it isn’t?
6. When Turkey invades how will PKK react in Turkey, if they carry out attacks it will fuel Turkey’s narrative that “YPG/PYD is PKK”…if they don’t then Turkey gets to do Afrin again.
7. What happens in Qamishli, does the regime assert more control.
8. Does the US remaining in parts of southeast Syria remain to block Russia, Iran, Syria regime, even if SDF cuts a “deal” US says “no, you can’t cut a deal.”
9. Will the SDF be disbanded?
10. When Turkey invades will SDF do another Afrin where it decides to sacrifice pieces of eastern Syria with the hope it will keep other pieces.
11. What happens to the air power, does the US give Turkey airspace to bomb, but only Turkey, not Russia or regime? Who controls the air.
12. What happens to the rest of the Coalition, UK, France, etc?
13. Will Turkey try to take over border area with Sinjar?
14. Will Turkey use its Syria rebel fighters as “cannon fodder” or proxies?
15. What becomes of Manbij?
16. What happens with the Rojava Peshmerga?
17. What is Russia’s deal with Turkey, did it agree that in exchange for S-400, Turkey gets most of its “safe zone”.
18. Will the SDF/SDC sign a deal with the Syrian regime?
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