MESOPOTAMIA NEWS INTEL BY MEIR AMIT INTELLIGENCE & TERRORISM INFORMATION CENTER – Spotlight on Global Jihad (August 23-29, 2018)

• In the Idlib region, the warring sides continue their preparations for the campaign. The Syrian army continues to reinforce its troops while the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham reinforces its positions in the areas where it expects the Syrian attack to take place. The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham has established an elite force whose operatives undergo rigorous training so they can be utilized to break through the enemy’s lines of defense and operate behind the enemy lines.
• Concurrently with the military preparations on the ground, intensive diplomatic talks are underway between Russia and Turkey, examining ways to prevent friction between Russia and Syria, on the one hand, and Turkey on the other, during the takeover of the Idlib region. In the ITIC’s assessment, the discussions center on the idea of driving a wedge between the “moderate” organizations (sponsored by Turkey), with which reconciliation arrangements can be reached, and the jihadi terrorist organizations, primarily the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham, which must be fought with and eradicated.
• The Syrian army is also holding talks with the non-jihadi rebel organizations in order to try to reach reconciliation (i.e., surrender) arrangements with them in the same format as those that were reached in southern Syria. The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham, which is aware of this, is carrying out intensive activity against its opponents. This activity includes large-scale arrests, attacks against operatives of organizations affiliated with Turkey, and the publication of public warnings not to surrender to the enemy and not to agree to reconciliation arrangements with it.

Russian and American involvement in Syria

Talks between Russia and Turkey in preparation for the campaign for the takeover of Idlib

   
Right: Russian delegation (right) and Turkish delegation (left) at the Kremlin (Kremlin website, August 24, 2018). Left: Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu (left) and his Turkish counterpart in Russia (Russian Defense Ministry website, August 24, 2018)

• The key issue discussed in the talks is how to drive a wedge between the rebel organizations supported by Turkey (the “moderate” rebel organizations) and the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and the jihadi organizations affiliated with it (terrorist organizations), which control most of the Idlib area. This is in light of the understanding that it will be possible to reach regulation agreements (in the format of those reached in southern Syria) with the “moderate” organizations, whereas the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham must be eradicated.
• Russian media reports in this context:
  • During the meeting between the defense ministers of Russia and Turkey, Russian military officials made it clear that Moscow expects Turkey to take steps to separate the forces of the “armed Syrian opposition” from the forces of the Al-Nusra Front (i.e., the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham), which control about 60% of the Idlib Province (Kommersant, August 25, 2018).
  • Bahjat Hajjar, activist and opponent to the Assad regime, said in an interview with the Russian news agency RBK that Turkey was trying to convince the rebel organizations affiliated with it that Idlib would continue to be a less tense area, but that to this end they should start an armed struggle against the terrorist operatives (i.e., the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham). Another Syrian activist, Fawzi Abu al-Abd, said in the interview that the reason for the meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia and Turkey was the Russian fear of Ankara’s failure to separate the militants that are members of the “moderate” opposition and operatives of the Al-Nusra Front (i.e., the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham) (News website of the RBK news agency, August 25, 2018).
  • The Sputnik News Agency reported that Turkey had approached the Syrian regime through Russia and asked it to postpone the start of the campaign until September 4, 2018. During this period, Turkey will work to persuade the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham to disarm and reach a political solution (Sputnik, August 26, 2018).

The exchange of accusations about the use of chemical weapons

• The US, Russian and international media published an exchange of accusations about intentions to carry out a chemical attack during the Idlib campaign. Senior US officials claimed that they had information that the Syrian president was planning another chemical attack in the northwestern part of Idlib. In consequence, the US threatened to respond with greater intensity than in the past (Radio Free Liberty; Bloomberg, August 25, 2018). On the other hand, Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Igor Konashenkov claimed that the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham had sent chlorine gas tankers to the area south of Jisr al-Shughur, in order to stage the Syrian regime’s use of chemical weapons against civilians (Sputnik, August 25, 2018). A similar claim was made by media outlets affiliated with Hezbollah and Iran (Al-Mayadeen; Al-Alam, August 23, 2018).

Syria

Syrian army’s attack against the ISIS enclave in As-Suwayda

Idlib area

Syrian army preparations on the ground, along with negotiations with the rebel organizations

• The Syrian army continued to reinforce its troops in the area northeast of Latakia. This week, an armed force arrived in Jab Al-Ahmar, in the northern part of the Al-Ghab plain (about 17 km south of Jisr al-Shughur, the rebel stronghold). At the same time, the Syrian army holds negotiations with the commanders of the rebel forces which were included in the reconciliation arrangements in the Daraa Province, to have their operatives join the army’s ranks during the campaign in Idlib (Facebook page of the Syrian Army’s Military Information Network, August 23, 2018; Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, August 25, 2018). In addition, the Syrian General Headquarters was reportedly conducting negotiations with the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham, the Turkestan Islamic Party, and other jihadi organizations. During the negotiations, these organizations are required to disband if they wish not to be attacked by the Syrian army (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, August 27, 2018).

   
Right: Syrian army reinforcement arriving in Jab al-Ahmar, south of Jisr al-Shughur (Facebook page of the Syrian Army’s Central Information Network, August 23, 2018). Left: Syrian army vehicle carrying a double-barrel anti-aircraft gun arriving in the Latakia rural area (Muraselon, August 23, 2018)

Preparation of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham for the imminent campaign

• The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham continues to fortify its positions in the areas where it expects the Syrian army to attack. This week, fortification work continued in the rural area north of Hama (Ibaa, August 26, 2018).

   
Fortification work by the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham (Ibaa, August 26, 2018)

Training of an elite force of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham

• The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham released a video documenting the training of the “Red Bands,” an elite force established in the Idlib area. According to the video, the Red Bands operatives are equipped with explosive vests to carry out suicide bombing attacks. One of the force commanders said that the most important mission of his operatives is activity behind enemy lines and breaking through the enemy’s lines of defense. The video warns the residents of the Idlib area (“the liberated areas”) not to hand over their land and weapons because the Alawi regime will expel them, as happened in the areas where reconciliation agreements were reached (Ibaa, August 27, 2018).

The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham continues to operate against its opponents in the Idlib area

• Concurrently with the efforts to drive the rebel organizations in the Idlib area to switch sides to the Syrian regime, the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham continued its preemptive actions against its opponents among the ISIS operatives and rebel organizations. Following are the highlights of its activity during the past week:
• Operatives of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham took over headquarters and weapons of Ansar Al-Sham in the Latakia Mountains. This was carried out based on information on their intention to join a rebel force supported by one of the countries in the region (implied reference to Turkey^[1]) (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, August 23, 2018).
• The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham arrested twenty ISIS operatives in the rural area west of Idlib, near the Syrian-Turkish border (Ibaa, August 26, 2018).

• The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham arrested 37 people on charges of “Treason and reconciliation with the Syrian regime.” The arrests were made northwest of Idlib, near the Turkish border.

Main developments in Iraq –  ISIS attacks

• Following are the main operations carried out by ISIS:
  • Detonation of an IED against a vehicle in the Hawija district, about 55 km southwest of Kirkuk. Three members of the Iraqi Federal Police, including an officer with the rank of aqid (colonel), were wounded (Al-Sumaria News, August 25, 2018).
  • Detonation of an IED in the Al-Dura area, in southern Baghdad. ISIS’s Amaq News Agency reported that five Popular Mobilization fighters had been wounded and their vehicle had been destroyed (Twitter, August 27, 2018). On the other hand, the Iraqi media reported that an IED had exploded in the evening inside a minibus, and three of its passengers had been wounded (Al-Sumaria News, August 26, 2018).

Counter-terrorism activity by the Iraqi security forces

• This week, the Iraqi security forces carried out a large-scale operation to capture ISIS operatives in the Al-Anbar Province, near the border between Syria and Iraq. As part of the operation, all the roads leading to the area were blocked. Sapper teams deactivated many IEDs planted in the area (Al-Sumaria News, August 24, 2018).

• Following are additional activities carried out by the Iraqi security forces during the past week:
  • The Nineveh Police Rapid Deployment Force, with Coalition aircraft support, surrounded and mopped up a cave where ISIS operatives were hiding, about 36 km south of Mosul. Ten ISIS operatives were killed (Iraqi News Agency, August 25, 2018).
  • Five ISIS operatives were killed by the Iraqi security forces while attempting to plant an IED in the Rutba district, west of the Al-Anbar Province (Iraqi News Agency, August 23, 2018).
  • Based on intelligence, the Iraqi security forces arrested a commander of an ISIS force in the Hawija area, about 55 km west of Kirkuk. In his interrogation, he admitted that he had planned to detonate IEDs against the Iraqi security forces and blow up high-voltage pylons. He also disclosed the whereabouts of an ISIS hideout where 12 IEDs were found (Al-Sumaria News, August 25, 2018).
• www.mesop.de