Main events[1]
- The unilateral ceasefire in the Idlib region declared by the Syrian army continues. However, exchanges of artillery fire between the Syrian army and the rebel organizations continue, with each side accusing the other of violating the ceasefire. The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham announced the completion of a new snipers course. In the ITIC’s assessment, the announcement was made in order to convey a message that the organization was preparing for the next round of fighting.
- Intensive guerilla activity by ISIS continues in the Euphrates Valley, in the area of Al-Raqqah and in the area between Deir ez-Zor and Albukamal. This activity consisted mainly of detonating IEDs against vehicles, firing, and throwing hand grenades at checkpoints and other targets of the SDF forces.
- In the Kurdish-controlled Al-Hol displaced persons camp, riots were initiated by wives of ISIS operatives (who arrived at the camp with a civilian population who fled the Euphrates Valley). There was an exchange of fire during the riots. One woman was killed and several were wounded. It is possible that ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s call to act to release ISIS detainees “permeated” through the camp and raised the level of motivation and daring of the wives of ISIS operatives.
- In the northern Sinai Peninsula, ISIS continues its high-intensity terrorist and guerrilla activities against the Egyptian security forces and local residents who collaborate with them. One of the most noteworthy attacks was against an Egyptian army checkpoint on the coastal road west of Al-Arish (8-15 killed). The attack was carried out at a sensitive time for the Egyptian regime (demonstrations against President El-Sisi). In the ITIC’s assessment, this is an expression of the increased operational capability of ISIS’s Sinai Province.
- Apart from Egypt, noteworthy activity took place in two provinces:
- In the states of Borno and Yobe, in northwestern Nigeria, ISIS operatives carried out a series of attacks against the Nigerian army, which were characterized by setting up ambushes on roads and attacking army camps. According to ISIS, the Nigerian army suffered many losses and large quantities of weapons and equipment were seized.
- In the Nangarhar Province in eastern Afghanistan, ISIS carried out intensive activity aimed at disrupting the presidential elections. The activity consisted mainly of activating IEDs near polling stations in order to target voters, security officials, and election committee officials.
Idlib region
The ceasefire: overview
- The unilateral ceasefire declared by the Syrian army more than a month ago (on August 31, 2019) is generally maintained. Since the declaration of the ceasefire, the Syrian army has refrained from initiating ground attacks to take over additional territories in the Idlib region. However, at the same time, exchanges of artillery fire continue between the Syrian army and the rebel organizations. In addition, Syrian helicopters were reportedly carrying out airstrikes in the Kabanah area, in the northwestern part of the Idlib region (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, September 29, 2019).
Exchanges of artillery fire
- The Syrian army continued to fire artillery at rebel organizations’ targets. Following are several prominent activities:
- On September 29, 2019, artillery was fired at targets in the rural areas south of Idlib and south of Aleppo.
- The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham reported that on September 27, 2019, the Syrian army had fired over 50 rockets at Kafr Oweid, about 35 km southwest of Idlib (Ibaa, September 28, 2019).
Buildings at Kafr Oweid southwest of Idlib, hit by Syrian army artillery
(Ibaa, September 28, 2019)
- On October 5, 2019, the Syrian army fired about 100 rockets at villages in the rural area south of Idlib (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, October 5, 2019).
- The rebel organizations also continued to fire artillery at the Syrian army. Following are several prominent activities:
- On October 1, 2019, the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham fired mortar shells at Syrian army positions in the southern Idlib region. The Syrian army responded by firing at the rebel organizations’ positions (Al-Watan, October 2, 2019).
- The operations room controlled by the (Al-Qaeda-affiliated) Guardians of the Religion Organization reported mortar and sniper fire against the Syrian army east of Idlib and in the northern Al-Ghab Plain (Telegram, October 4-5, 2019).
Completion of a snipers course of the Headquarters for the iberation of Al-Sham
- The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham announced the completion of the training of new snipers as part of the organization’s sniper battalions (Ibaa, September 30, 2019). In the ITIC’s assessment, the announcement was intended to convey a deterrent message to the Syrian army that the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham was preparing for the continuation of the fighting.
Right: Abu Ashdaa, one of the instructors at the snipers course (Ibaa, September 30, 2019). Left: One of the trainees (Ibaa, September 30, 2019)
Preventing civilians from leaving through the Abu Duhur crossing
- A newspaper affiliated with the Syrian regime reported that on October 1, 2019, the rebel organizations had planted mines in the western part of the Abu Duhur crossing, as part of the measures taken to prevent civilians from leaving the rebels’ control zone (Al-Watan, October 2, 2019). Aleppo Governor Hossein Diab reported that a “humanitarian corridor” had been opened in Abu Duhur, under Syrian and Russian sponsorship. However, he said, the rebel organizations (“unlawful armed groups”) continued to prevent the evacuation of civilians, using them as human shields (TASS, September 28, 2019).
Summary of the losses since the beginning of the Syrian army’s round attack
- Since the beginning of the Syrian army’s ground attack in early May 2019, a total of 4,180 people have been killed in the Idlib region. Fatalities included 1,688 rebel organization operatives, including 1,098 operatives of the jihadi organizations [bearing the brunt of the fighting]. Fatalities also included 1,426 soldiers and operatives of the Syrian army and the forces supporting it, and 1,066 civilians (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, October 5, 2019).
Eastern Syria
The area of Palmyra and Al-Sukhnah
- On September 26, 2019, an IED was activated against a Syrian army vehicle near Al-Sukhnah, northeast of Palmyra. The three passengers were killed. ISIS released photos showing the damaged vehicle and bodies of two fighters (Telegram, September 27, 2019).
- ISIS operatives attacked Syrian army positions in the desert about 30 km southwest of Deir ez-Zor and in the Al-Sukhnah area. The exchanges of fire with the Syrian army lasted for several hours. Airstrikes against ISIS were also carried out during that time. A total of 11 ISIS operatives and seven Syrian soldiers were killed (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, October 4, 2019).
The Euphrates Valley
Al-Raqqah area
- Following are ISIS’s main activities in the Al-Raqqah area:
- On September 26, 2019, two hand grenades were thrown at SDF fighters east of Al-Raqqah. Three fighters were killed and wounded (Telegram, September 27, 2019).
- On September 27, 2019, four hand grenades were thrown at the center of the Kurdish Internal Security forces in Jadidat Khabour, 36 km east of Al-Raqqah. One security guard was killed and another was wounded (Telegram, September 27, 2019).
- On September 29, 2019, an SDF vehicle was set on fire about 10 km west of Al-Raqqah (Telegram, September 30, 2019).
- On September 30, 2019, a vehicle of one of the officials of the SDF local council in Mazraat al-Rashid, about 20 km northwest of Al-Raqqah, was set on fire (Telegram, October 1, 2019).
- On September 30, 2019, a vehicle of one of the officials of the SDF local council in Al-Hous, about 20 km east of Al-Raqqah, was set on fire (Telegram, October 1, 2019).
- On October 1, 2019, an IED was detonated against an SDF vehicle about 20 km east of Al-Raqqah. Five fighters were killed or wounded (Telegram, October 1, 2019).
- On October 1, 2019, an SDF fighter was shot at his home in Al-Raqqah. He was severely wounded (Telegram, October 2, 2019).
- On October 2, 2019, an SDF fighter was shot and killed in Al-Tina, about 50 km north of Al-Raqqah (Telegram, October 2, 2019).
The area of Deir ez-Zor, Al-Mayadeen, and Albukamal
- Following are highlights of ISIS’s activity in the area between Deir ez-Zor and Albukamal:
- On September 26, 2019, SDF forces at a checkpoint near Suweidan, about 15 km southeast of Al-Mayadeen, were targeted by machine gun fire. An SDF fighter was killed and others were wounded (Telegram, September 26, 2019).
- On September 26, 2019, an IED was detonated against a vehicle of a militia supporting the Syrian army in the Al-Mayadeen rural area. The five passengers were killed (Telegram, September 27, 2019).
- On September 26, 2019, an SDF fighter was targeted by machine gun fire in the village of Diban, 5 km east of Al-Mayadeen. He was killed (Telegram, September 27, 2019).
- On September 27, 2019, an SDF checkpoint in the village of Diban was targeted by machine gun fire. An SDF fighter was killed and another was wounded (Telegram, September 27, 2019).
- On September 28, 2019, an IED was detonated against an SDF vehicle 14 km north of Al-Mayadeen. The three passengers were killed (Telegram, September 28, 2019).
- On September 30, 2019, an IED was detonated against a Syrian army convoy in the Al-Mayadeen area. Several soldiers were killed (Furat Post, September 30, 2019). So far, no organization claimed responsibility. In the ITIC’s assessment, ISIS is responsible for the attack.
- On October 1, 2019, an IED was detonated against a truck carrying SDF fighters in the area of Diban, 5 km east of Al-Mayadeen. About 20 fighters were killed and wounded (Telegram, October 1, 2019).
- On October 1, 2019, an IED was detonated against an SDF vehicle on the road leading to the Omar oilfield, about 50 km southeast of Deir ez-Zor. Three SDF commanders were killed (Telegram, October 1, 2019).
- On October 1, 2019, an SDF vehicle was targeted by machine gun fire in the Al-Basira area, 14 km north of Al-Mayadeen. The passengers were killed and wounded (Telegram, October 1, 2019).
- On October 4, 2019, an IED was detonated against a Syrian army vehicle in the Al-Mayadeen Desert. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, October 5, 2019).
SDF counterterrorist activity
- An SDF sapper unit exposed an ISIS workshop operating at one of the schools in Hajin, 25 km north of Albukamal. The unit deactivated the IEDs and mines found there (SDF Press, October 1, 2019).
ISIS’s IEDs and mines found in the workshop
(SDF Press, October 1, 2019)
Main developments in Iraq
- ISIS’s terrorist and guerrilla activities in the various provinces in Iraq continued. Most of the activities took the form of detonating IEDs and firing light weapons. The main activities for which ISIS claimed responsibility were as follows:
- Kirkuk Province: An IED was detonated against an Iraqi federal police vehicle about 50 km southwest of Kirkuk. The passengers were wounded (Telegram, September 28, 2019).
- Irbil Province: An IED was detonated against an intelligence operative of the Kurdish forces about 70 km southeast of Mosul. He was wounded (Telegram, September 27, 2019).
- Diyala Province: Civilians of the Kakaiya sect[2] were targeted by machine gun fire 4 km north of Khanaqin. Three people were killed (Telegram, September 28, 2019).
- Diyala Province: An IED was detonated against Tribal Mobilization operatives in the village of Al-Islah, about 90 km northeast of Baqubah. Two operatives were wounded (Telegram, September 28, 2019).
- Salah al-Din Province: A vehicle and a bulldozer belonging to the Popular Mobilization were targeted by machine gun fire about 10 km northwest of Samarra. Several operatives were killed and wounded (Telegram, September 30, 2019).
- Diyala Province: A Border Police headquarters was targeted by sniper fire 4 km north of Khanaqin. Two border policemen were killed (Telegram, September 30, 2019).
- Baghdad Province: An IED was detonated against the vehicle of a Tribal Mobilization local commander about 25 km southeast of Fallujah. He was wounded (Telegram, September 30, 2019).
- Nineveh Province: An IED was detonated against a Tribal Mobilization vehicle about 60 km south of Mosul. The driver was wounded (Telegram, September 30, 2019).
- Diyala Province: Quarters of the oil facilities security guards were targeted by sniper fire about 40 km east of Baqubah. One security guard was killed and another was wounded (Telegram, October 2, 2019).
- Diyala Province: An Iraqi Border Police base north of Khanaqin was targeted by sniper fire. A border policeman was killed (Telegram, October 4, 2019).
- Diyala Province: An oil police base in the Mandali area, about 40 km east of Baqubah, was targeted by sniper fire. Two policemen were killed and another was wounded (Telegram, October 4, 2019).
Riots at the Al-Hol displaced persons camp
On September 30, 2019, riots took place at the Kurdish-controlled Al-Hol displaced persons camp east of Al-Hasakah. About 70,000 people are living there, most of whom fled during the takeover of the ISIS outpost in the Euphrates Valley in March (CNN report). The riots took place at the camp area where wives of ISIS operatives were living. Those who initiated the riots were reportedly wives of ISIS operatives, who opened fire at the camp guards. The guards returned fire.
Al-Hol displaced persons camp (Rohani TV, September 30, 2019)
- One of the women was killed in the exchange of fire, and seven others were wounded. Over 50 women were detained. The detainees were accused of organizing the riots and holding kangaroo courts which led to the execution of women opposed to ISIS (Furat Post, October 5, 2019; Rohani TV, September 30, 2019).