• The synchronized wave of attacks known as the Raids of Attrition, which began on May 14, ended on May 24, 2020. Over a period of 10 days, more than 100 attacks were carried out, the vast majority in Iraq (about 40) and Syria (about 30). After them, by a wide margin, are Nigeria (8 attacks) and other provinces in Africa and Asia (a few attacks in each province).
• A comparison of the current wave of attacks and the four waves of attacks carried out in 2019, leads to the following conclusions:
  • Duration: The current wave of attacks lasted longer than its predecessors, although not significantly (8 days in December 2019; 8 days in August; 4 days in May-June and 4 days in April).
  • Location of the attacks: In all of the waves of attacks, most of the attacks were carried out in Iraq and Syria. A small number of attacks were carried out in ISIS’s provinces in Africa and Asia, mainly in West Africa.
  • Nature of the attacks: Most of the attacks were unsophisticated; no unusually complex or deadly showcase attacks were carried out. No attacks were carried out in the West.
• Hence, an analysis of the current wave of attacks indicates an improvement in ISIS’s operational capability, mainly in the Iraqi arena and to some extent in the Syrian arena as well, in contrast with ISIS’s other provinces around the world. In the current wave of attacks, ISIS has again demonstrated the ability to focus its efforts on a defined and scheduled mission and to time its attacks and media activity in its various provinces. The image of power that ISIS is attempting to convey is only partially borne out on the ground and, in the ITIC’s assessment, has failed to rehabilitate its image after the severe blows that it suffered with the fall of its territorial strongholds in Iraq and Syria, and the killing of its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
• A noteworthy attack carried out by ISIS during the past week was an attack against an Egyptian border patrol force east of Sheikh Zuweid. Four members of the force were killed. Photos published by ISIS show some of the operatives who participated in the attack wearing Egyptian army uniforms. In the ITIC’s assessment, this was in order to mislead the Egyptian forces at the scene. In another operation carried out in the area of Sheikh Zuweid, eight ISIS operatives killed four so-called Egyptian spies. According to ISIS, the eight operatives also wore Egyptian army uniforms.

The Idlib region

Overview

The ceasefire in the Idlib region was maintained this week. It was violated by local clashes between the Syrian army and the rebel forces around the town of Kafrnubl (about 30 km south of Idlib). The joint patrols of the Syrian and Turkish armies continued uninterrupted. A protest prayer was held by local residents on the M-4 highway near Idlib, without any unusual events. In the ITIC’s assessment, it took place on the initiative of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham.

Joint patrols of the Russian and Turkish armies continue

• The joint patrols of the Russian and Turkish armies continued this week. On May 20, 2020, Turkey and Russia carried out their 12th joint patrol on the M-4 highway (Aleppo-Latakia). For the first time, the patrol went beyond the town of Ariha (about 10 km south of Idlib) and reached a village about 17 km southwest of Idlib (Enab Baladi; Anatolia, May 20, 2020).

• On May 22, 2020, civilian activists called on residents of the Idlib region to take part in the Eid al-Fitr prayer and listen to a sermon on the M-4 highway, near the bridge of the town of Ariha. The prayer and sermon were intended to express the residents’ objection to the joint patrols. In the ITIC’s assessment, the call to attend the prayer and sermon came from the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham, which is trying to instigate the local population to disrupt the joint patrols. In practice, on May 24, 2020, a holiday prayer was led by Abd al-Razzaq al-Mahdi, an operative affiliated with the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham (Enab Baladi, May 24, 2020). The protest prayer and sermon took place without any unusual events.

Turkish army reinforcements arriving at the Idlib region

• On May 23, 2020, a Turkish army convoy comprising 30 military vehicles entered Syrian territory. The convoy was escorted by operatives of the Faylaq al-Sham rebel organization^[1]. It reached the rural area southeast of Idlib (Khotwa, May 23, 2020).

    
Turkish army armored vehicles en route to the Idlib region
(Khotwa, May 23, 2020)

Prisoner exchange between an organization affiliated with Al-Qaeda and the Syrian army

• On May 22, 2020, a prisoner exchange deal was carried out between the Syrian army and the “Awaken the Believers” operations room (an Al-Qaeda-affiliated umbrella network of jihadi organizations led by the Guardians of Religion Organization). The Syrian army released two women and three boys. One of the women is the wife of a commander in the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham. In return, the jihadi operatives released three members of a militia supporting the Syrian army, who were captured during the clashes in the Turkmen Mountain (southwest of Idlib) (Twitter account affiliated with the “Awaken the Believers” operations room; Khotwa, May 22, 2020).

    
Right: Operatives of the “Awaken the Believers” operations room and a member of the Syrian Red Crescent welcoming two women and one of the three boys who were released. Left: Three members of a militia supporting the Syrian army, a short while before being released (Twitter account affiliated with the “Awaken the Believers” operations room, May 23, 2020)

• This is the third prisoner exchange deal carried out recently between the rebel organizations and the Syrian army. The first deal was carried out with the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham^[2], the second with the National Liberation Front (a Turkish-backed umbrella network), and the third with the Guardians of the Religion Organization (an Al-Qaeda-affiliated organization operating as part of the “Awaken the Believers” operations room) (Enab Baladi, May 24, 2020).

Northeastern Syria

ISIS’s intensive activity in the Euphrates Valley continued this week, mainly in the form of IEDs against SDF vehicles and targeted killings.

The area of Al-Mayadeen and Albukamal

• On May 23, 2020, ISIS operatives took an SDF fighter prisoner about 70 km north of Deir ez-Zor. He was shot to death (Telegram, May 24, 2020).
• On May 22, 2020, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle about 20 km north of Al-Mayadeen. Two fighters were wounded (Telegram, May 23, 2020).
• On May 22, 2020, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle on the road leading to the Al-Omar oil field, about 10 km north of Al-Mayadeen. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, May 22, 2020).
• On May 21, 2020, ISIS operatives took an SDF “agent” prisoner about 5 km northeast of Al-Mayadeen. He was interrogated and then executed (Telegram, May 21, 2020).
• On May 21, 2020, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle about 10 km north of Al-Mayadeen. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, May 21, 2020).
• On May 21, 2020, an SDF vehicle was targeted by machine gun fire about 10 km northeast of Deir ez-Zor. Two fighters were killed (Telegram, May 21, 2020).
• On May 20, 2020, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle about 25 km north of Albukamal. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, May 21, 2020).
• On May 20, 2020, an SDF intelligence operative was targeted by machine gun fire about 10 km north of Al-Mayadeen. He was wounded (Telegram, May 20, 2020).
• On May 20, 2020, ISIS operatives took an SDF intelligence operative prisoner about 10 km north of Al-Mayadeen. He was interrogated and then executed (Telegram, May 20, 2020).
• On May 20, 2020, an SDF fighter was targeted by machine gun fire about 10 km north of Al-Mayadeen. He was killed (Telegram, May 20, 2020).
• On May 20, 2020, ISIS operatives took an SDF fighter prisoner about 5 km northeast of Al-Mayadeen. He was interrogated and then executed (Telegram, May 20, 2020).

The Al-Raqqah area

• On May 21, 2020, an SDF vehicle was targeted by machine gun fire about 20 km southwest of Al-Raqqah. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, May 21, 2020).
• On May 20, 2020, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle about 70 km northwest of Al-Raqqah. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, May 20, 2020).

The Al-Hasakah area

• On May 20, 2020, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, May 21, 2020).

Eastern Syria (Al-Sukhnah-Palmyra region)

• On May 21, 2020, a Syrian soldier riding a motorcycle was targeted by machine gun fire northwest of Al-Sukhnah. He was wounded (Telegram, May 21, 2020).

The Iraqi arena

ISIS’s Iraq Province taking the lead in ISIS’s activity

• On May 21, 2020, ISIS released an infographic entitled “The Harvest of the Fighters,” summing up its activity in the various provinces between May 14 and May 20, 2020. A total of 158 attacks were carried out around the world: 84 of them (about 53%) in Iraq, 39 in Syria, 13 in the West Africa Province, 9 in the Sinai Province, 4 in the Central Africa Province, and the rest in other provinces (Telegram, May 21, 2020).

In addition, ISIS released an infographic summing up the military activity in it various provinces in Iraq between April 24, 2020 and May 20, 2020. During this time, ISIS operatives carried out 226 attacks throughout Iraq, killing or wounding 426 people. A total of 97 attacks were carried out in the Diyala Province. Following them are the provinces of Kirkuk (41), North Baghdad (19), Al-Anbar (16), Salah al-Din (15), and Al-Janub (Babel Province) (15). Sporadic attacks were also carried out in other provinces. Most of the attacks were carried out in the form of detonating IEDs and sniper fire (Telegram, May 21, 2020).

Highlights of ISIS’s activity during the past week

Diyala Province

• On May 21, 2020, an Iraqi police patrol was targeted by machine gun fire about 20 km northeast of Baqubah. Two policemen were wounded (Telegram, May 22, 2020).
• On May 21, 2020, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army vehicle about 20 km northeast of Baqubah. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, May 22, 2020).
• On May 21, 2020, an Iraqi soldier was targeted by sniper fire about 20 km southwest of Khanaqin. He was wounded (Telegram, May 22, 2020).
• On May 20, 2020, an IED was activated against two members of the oil facility security police about 10 km northwest of Baqubah. One policeman was killed and the other was wounded (Telegram, May 20, 2020).

Salah al-Din Province

• On May 23, 2020, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army vehicle about 30 km north of Baghdad. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, May 24, 2020).
• On May 22, 2020, two Iraqi policemen were targeted by sniper fire in the Samarra area. About five policemen were killed or wounded (Telegram, May 24, 2020).
• On May 22, 2020, an Iraqi soldier was targeted by machine gun fire about 30 km north of Baghdad. He was wounded (Telegram, May 22, 2020).

Kirkuk Province

• On May 23, 2020, an IED was activated against an Iraqi police vehicle about 40 km southwest of Kirkuk. The passengers were wounded (Telegram, May 25, 2020).
• On May 21, 2020, a compound of the oil facility security police was targeted by machine gun fire about 40 km northwest of Kirkuk. Three policemen were killed and another was wounded (Telegram, May 23, 2020).
• On May 21, 2020, an IED was activated against a Tribal Mobilization vehicle about 45 km west of Kirkuk. Two fighters were killed. When another force arrived at the scene to provide assistance, an IED was activated against it. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, May 23, 2020).
• On May 21, 2020, a sticky bomb was activated against a Kurdish Peshmerga vehicle in central Kirkuk. An officer and three fighters were wounded (Telegram, May 22, 2020).
• On May 20, 2020, a vehicle of the oil field security police was targeted by machine gun fire on the Baiji-Kirkuk highway. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, May 21, 2020).

Al-Anbar Province

• On May 24, 2020, ISIS operatives fired at an Iraqi army helicopter near Al-Rutba. The helicopter was hit. The crew and passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, May 25, 2020). However, Iraqi “security sources” reported that an Iraqi Air Force aircraft providing support to anti-ISIS ground activity was targeted by gunfire. The aircraft was slightly damaged but returned safely to its base (Al-Sumaria, May 25, 2020).
• On May 22, 2020, ISIS operatives attacked an Iraqi army headquarters about 25 km west of Al-Rutba. Four soldiers were killed or wounded. In addition, a vehicle was destroyed and the headquarters sustained damage (Telegram, May 23, 2020).
• On May 21, 2020, ISIS operatives attacked a Popular Mobilization headquarters northeast of Fallujah. One commander and two fighters were killed (Telegram, May 22, 2020).
• On May 21, 2020, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army vehicle northeast of Fallujah. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, May 22, 2020).
• On May 20, 2020, ISIS operatives attacked an Iraqi army headquarters near the Arar border crossing between Iraq and Saudi Arabia. An officer and about eight soldiers were killed or wounded. The headquarters was damaged. An Iraqi army force sent to the scene was tricked by the ISIS operatives into entering a minefield. Six additional soldiers were killed or wounded (Telegram, May 21, 2020).

Babel Province

• On May 22, 2020, a Popular Mobilization vehicle was targeted by machine gun fire about 40 km south of Baghdad. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, May 22, 2020).

Counterterrorist activities by the Iraqi security forces

Senior ISIS official captured

• On May 20, 2020, the Iraqi National Intelligence service announced that it had captured Abd al-Nasser Qardash, a senior ISIS official who was one of the candidates to succeed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.^[3] According to the statement, Abd al-Nasser Qardash was caught based on accurate intelligence (Al-Sumaria, May 20, 2020). Qardash, who was born in Mosul, held a series of military positions in ISIS. He was in charge of a number of operations in Syria and Iraq and was known for his close relationship with ISIS’s Arab command. He started his activity in Al-Qaeda in Iraq, which later became ISIS. He was very close to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. In an interview after he was apprehended, Qardash noted that the current ISIS leader, Abdallah Qardash, is not as resolute in his decisions as Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi. According to Iraqi “intelligence sources,” in his interrogation, Qardash revealed that there were severe differences of opinion between ISIS’s Arab and foreign operatives (Al-Hadath Channel, May 20, 2020).

Additional activity by the Iraqi security forces

• On May 23, 2020, an Iraqi Interior Ministry Intelligence force captured five ISIS operatives in various parts of the Salah al-Din Province (Al-Sumaria, May 23, 2020).
• On May 23, 2020, Iraqi police captured two ISIS operatives in the Kirkuk Province (Al-Sumaria, May 23, 2020).
• On May 22, 2020, force of the Intelligence and Counterterrorism Directorate of the Al-Anbar Province captured six terrorist operatives (i.e., ISIS operatives) in various parts of the Al-Anbar Province. In addition, a stockpile of explosives used by ISIS was found in the area of Fallujah (Al-Sumaria, May 22, 2020).

• On May 23, 2020, an Iraqi military intelligence force captured two “terrorist operatives” (i.e., ISIS operatives) in the area of Al-Qaim, near the border between Iraq and Syria. The two underwent training at one of ISIS’s camps in Albukamal and took part in the fighting in Deir ez-Zor (Al-Sumaria, May 23, 2020).