MESOPOTAMIA NEWS INTEL BY MEIR AMIT INTELLIGENCE & TERRORISM INFORMATION CENTER ISRAEL / Spotlight on Global Jihad (April 2-6, 2020)

Overview^[1]

• In the Idlib region, the ceasefire continued, with occasional exchanges of artillery fire. In the background is the rival sides’ fear of an outbreak of COVID-19 in the Idlib region. So far, there are no known cases in the Idlib region, but it is quite possible that this is due to a lack of testing and information.
• In the Euphrates Valley in Syria, ISIS’s intensive activity continued, despite the threat of COVID-19. The main forms of attacks were activating IEDs against vehicles, taking prisoners and executing them, and firing light weapons at SDF fighters.
• In the Iraqi arena as well, ISIS’s intensive activity continues. The main forms of attacks were attacking camps of the Iraqi security forces, activating IEDs on traffic arteries, sniper fire, mortar shell fire, and targeted killings.
• In Afghanistan, ISIS suffered a severe blow with the capture of the Emir (leader) of the Khorasan Province along with senior commanders of the organization (according to a report issued by the Afghan National Intelligence Directorate). It appears that in order to raise the morale of ISIS operatives in Afghanistan, the organization released a video showing an Afghan senior officer with the rank of colonel who served as the Afghan national security chief. He was captured by ISIS several months ago. The officer is wearing the orange clothes worn by prisoners before being executed.

The Idlib region

The situation on the ground

The ceasefire in the Idlib region has generally been maintained, with the exception of incidents of artillery fire sporadically taking place between the rival sides. It appears that the Syrian army and the rebel organizations are now in a waiting position, first and foremost due to the fear of a widespread outbreak of COVID-19 in the Idlib region.

• On April 4, 2020, exchanges of artillery fire took place south of Idlib between the Syrian army and the rebel organizations. On the night of April 4-5, 2020, the Syrian army fired artillery at areas controlled by the rebel organizations south and southwest of Idlib. No casualties were reported (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, April 5, 2020).
• The head of the Russian Reconciliation Center in Syria reported that on April 1, 2020, “militants” fired at two Syrian villages in Saraqeb and the Latakia Province. In addition, he reported the continuation of the joint patrols of the Russian and Turkish armies (TASS, April 2, 2020). On the ground, Turkish army patrols on the M-4 highway continue without Russian participation (Khotwa, April 2, 2020).
• In early April, there was a report that the Turkish army had sent further reinforcements to the Idlib region (Khotwa, April 2, 2020). On April 5, 2020, Turkey announced that it would minimize its troop movements in Syria due to the threat of an outbreak of COVID-19 (Reuters, April 5, 2020).

The spread of COVID-19 in the Idlib region

• So far, there are no known COVID-19 cases in the Idlib region. However, such cases may well exist, although they are not reported. According to Syrian Health Ministry reports (whose reliability is doubtful), 16 COVID-19 cases were detected in Syria, two died as a result of the virus and the rest recovered (SANA, April 4, 2020).
• Syrian doctors in Idlib fight against time to prepare for the first COVID-19 patients in northern Syria for fear that the virus will cause an unprecedented disaster among the many refugees. According to an officer in the health department in Idlib, about 100,000 people may die in Syria if the World Health Organization (WHO) does not take control of the situation. According to him, there is only one laboratory to analyze the tests (Wirefax, April 5, 2020).

The Euphrates Valley

The area of Al-Mayadeen and Albukamal

• On April 5, 2020, there were exchanges of fire between ISIS and the SDF about 14 km southeast of Al-Mayadeen. Three fighters were killed (Telegram, April 5, 2020).
• On April 2, 2020, a motorcycle bomb was activated against an SDF vehicle in the village of Al-Basira, 14 km north of Al-Mayadeen. An SDF fighter was killed and two others were wounded (Telegram, April 2, 2020).
• On April 2, 2020, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle in the village of Al-Sabha, about 20 km north of Al-Mayadeen. The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, April 3, 2020).
• On April 2, 2020, ISIS operatives took an SDF intelligence operative prisoner about 50 km northeast of Deir ez-Zor. He was interrogated and then executed (Telegram, April 4, 2020).
• On April 1, 2020, ISIS operatives took a member of the Syrian regime prisoner in the village of Al-Shahil, about 9 km north of Al-Mayadeen. He was interrogated and then executed (Telegram, April 1, 2020).
• On April 1, 2020, ISIS operatives activated an IED in the home of the head of the local council of the village of Al-Susah, 7 km northeast of Albukamal. The house was damaged (Telegram, April 1, 2020).

Al-Hasakah area

• On April 4, 2020, an IED was activated against several SDF fighters while they were trying to deactivate it about 80 km south of Al-Hasakah. Three fighters were killed (Telegram, April 4, 2020).
• On April 2, 2020, ISIS operatives took an SDF fighter prisoner about 65 km south of Al-Hasakah. The prisoner was interrogated and then executed (Telegram, April 4, 2020).

The Iraqi arena

ISIS continues its high-intensity activity in Iraq. The main forms of activity were attacks against camps of the Iraqi security forces, activation of IEDs on traffic routes, sniper fire, mortar fire, and targeted killings.

Kirkuk Province

• On March 31, 2020, ISIS operatives attacked two Iraqi army camps on the Tikrit-Tuz Khormato road (about 70 km south of Kirkuk). Several soldiers were wounded (Telegram, April 1, 2020).
• On March 31, 2020, ISIS operatives attacked a Tribal Mobilization camp 40 km southwest of Kirkuk. Several soldiers were wounded (Telegram, April 1, 2020).

Diyala Province

• On April 5, 2020, an IED was activated against a Tribal Mobilization foot patrol about 40 km northeast of Baqubah. Two fighters were wounded (Telegram, April 5, 2020).
• On April 3, 2020, an IED was activated against a Popular Mobilization vehicle south of Khanaqin, about 100 km northeast of Baqubah. A commander and one of his escorts were wounded (Telegram, April 3, 2020).
• On April 3, 2020, an Iraqi commando camp was targeted by sniper fire about 60 km north of Baqubah. One of the fighters was severely wounded (Telegram, April 3, 2020).
• On April 3, 2020, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army vehicle about 80 km northeast of Baqubah. One officer and one of his escorts were killed, and three others were wounded (Telegram, April 4, 2020).
• On March 31, 2020, mortar shells were fired at Tribal Mobilization troops about 80 km northeast of Baqubah (Telegram, April 1, 2020).

Salah al-Din Province

• On April 2, 2020, an IED was activated against a Tribal Mobilization commander about 75 km south of Mosul. The commander was killed (Telegram, April 2, 2020).
• On March 31, 2020, ISIS operatives broke into the house of a Popular Mobilization operative about 20 km north of Baghdad. He was interrogated and then executed (Telegram, April 1, 2020).

Al-Anbar Province

• On April 5, 2020, ISIS operatives attacked an Iraqi army camp near the city of Al-Rutba, in western Al-Anbar Province. Eight soldiers were killed or wounded. In addition, large quantities of weapons and ammunition were seized (Telegram, April 5, 2020).

• On April 3, 2020, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army vehicle about 70 km west of Ramadi. An officer and three soldiers were killed (Telegram, April 3, 2020).
• On March 31, 2020, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army vehicle west of Baghdad. An officer and five soldiers were killed or wounded (Telegram, April 1, 2020).

Erbil Province

• On April 4, 2020, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army vehicle south of Makhmur (about 60 km southwest of Erbil). The passengers were killed or wounded (Telegram, April 5, 2020).
• On April 3, 2020, an IED was activated against an Iraqi army vehicle in the Makhmur area (about 60 km southwest of Erbil). Two soldiers were killed and three others were wounded (Telegram, April 5, 2020).
• On April 3, 2020, an Iraqi army camp in the Makhmur area was targeted by machine gun fire. One soldier was killed (Telegram, April 5, 2020).
• On April 1, 2020, ISIS operatives attacked an Iraqi army camp west of Makhmur. Several soldiers were wounded (Telegram, April 2, 2020).

Nineveh Province

• On April 4, 2020, ISIS operatives ambushed a vehicle carrying Popular Mobilization fighters on the Baghdad-Mosul highway, south of Mosul. Several fighters were wounded (Telegram, April 5, 2020).

Counterterrorism activities by the Iraqi security forces

Diyala Province

• On April 3, 2020, during the night, a Popular Mobilization force thwarted an ISIS attempt to attack the oil fields about 80 km northeast of Baqubah. The force fired artillery at ISIS operatives who tried to infiltrate into the area. As a result, the ISIS operatives withdrew (al-hashed.net, April 4, 2020).
• On April 3, 2020, a Popular Mobilization force located an ISIS guesthouse built inside a cave about 15 km south of Khanaqin. Logistic equipment was found at the site (al-hashed.net, April 3, 2020).
• On April 2, 2020, the Iraqi security forces located a hideout of “terrorist operatives” (implicitly, ISIS operatives) northeast of Baqubah. Ten IEDs were found at the site. In addition, another ISIS hideout was located in the area, containing explosives and equipment (Al-Sumaria, April 2, 2020).

Nineveh Province

• On April 3, 2020, the Iraqi security forces apprehended two “terrorist operatives” (implicitly, ISIS operatives) about 120 km west of Mosul (Al-Sumaria, April 3, 2020).

ISIS’s patterns of activity in Syria and Iraq in the first three months of 2020

• Terrorist organizations researcher Aaron Y. Zelin collected data on ISIS attacks in Syria and Iraq during the period between early 2020 until late March. The data indicates that ISIS’s activity in Syria and Iraq focused on guerrilla warfare along traffic routes. The center of activity in Syria was along the Deir ez-Zor-Albukamal road and the southern road of Al-Hasakah towards Deir ez-Zor. ISIS’s activity in Iraq focused on the provinces of Diyala, Kirkuk, Salah al-Din and Al-Anbar (@azelin, Aaron Zelin’s Twitter account, April 1, 2020).