Mesopotamia news insight : NEW POLLS FROM LEBANON & EGYPT HIGHLIGHT VIEWS ON ISLAMISTS, PEACE TALKS, GOVERNANCE, AND MORE – by David Pollock

Fikra Forum – December 10, 2018 – From Shia skepticism about Hezbollah to lingering support for the Muslim Brotherhood, respondents in the two countries had a number of surprising things to say about hot-button regional issues.

The following analysis originally appeared as separate Fikra Forum articles on striking new survey results from Lebanon and Egypt. Accompanying analysis of data from Saudi Arabia will be published soon. For methodological information on the surveys in both countries, see the closing section.

Doubts About Hezbollah Emerge in Lebanon, Even Among Shia

The acute border tension this week between Israel and Hezbollah adds urgency to a closer look at the militia’s popular standing in Lebanon—especially in case of war. Fortunately, a reliable new Lebanese public opinion poll shows that some Shia are now voicing reservations about Hezbollah policies—even as Sunnis continue to be solidly negative and Christians divided about the organization. Evidence of these misgivings about Hezbollah among Shia is especially noteworthy given the social taboos and real personal risks they face in criticizing “their own” political/military movement.

Remarkably, according to the data only a third of Shia want Hezbollah forces “to start actively confronting Israel.” Even fewer Shia, just one-quarter, say that solving the Palestinian problem should be the top regional priority. On a different but related question, one-third do not fully agree that “Hezbollah works only to protect Lebanon and resist Israel, rather than serving any outside agenda.” And the proportion of Lebanese Shia who voice a “very positive” view of Hezbollah today, while still high at 77%, is down somewhat from 83% in the previous poll exactly one year ago.

Even more surprisingly, taken altogether (Shia, Sunnis, Christians, plus the small Druze minority) a narrow majority—53 versus 47%—of the Lebanese public now actually has an unfavorable view of Hezbollah. The almost uniformly negative Sunni views continue to show no sign of softening. Lebanese Christians are in the middle as per usual for the past decade; their attitudes toward Hezbollah are divided between positive and negative.

Significant sectarian polarization is also evident in attitudes toward President Trump and U.S. policy in the region, with Sunnis the most favorably inclined. Among Sunnis, 36% give Trump a favorable rating; among Shia, the corresponding figure is merely 3%. Christians are again in the middle, with 23% voicing positive views of the U.S. president. Half of Sunnis, but a mere 11% of Shia, think that it is important for Lebanon to maintain good relations with the United States. Among Christians, that proportion is once more an intermediate (and unexpectedly low) one, at 38%.

Similarly, when asked to pick their top priority for U.S. Middle East policy, opinions cluster to some extent along sectarian lines. Around 30% of each community pick fighting jihadi terrorism as their favorite U.S. policy option. But on the choice of containing Iran, views are starkly divergent: among Sunnis, 45% select Iran as the best American priority; but among Shia, the corresponding figure is precisely zero and is just 12% among Christians. Conversely, only 9% of Sunnis put solving the Palestinian problem at the top of this list, compared with about one-fourth of both Shia and Christians. The same proportion of both Shia and Christians want the United States to simply “reduce its interference in the region”—but only 10% of Sunnis say the same.

Asked about other world leaders, the data shows sharp sectarian polarization as well, but of a rather different sort. President Putin of Russia earns an 85% approval rating among Lebanon’s Shia, but merely 13% among the Sunnis—presumably because of Russia’s crucial support for Syria’s sectarian Assad regime next door. Christians are again divided: 41% view Putin positively; the remainder do not. This is a similar breakdown regarding Russia overall: nearly all Shia (92%) say it is important for Lebanon to have good relations with that country, compared with just 28% of Sunnis and 53% of Christians.

In a mirror image of this sectarian split, Turkey’s Sunni president Erdogan is viewed favorably by two-thirds of Lebanon’s Sunnis, but just 7% of Shia. Less easy to explain, however, is the wide sectarian differential regarding China’s President Xi. He garners 71% approval among Lebanon’s Shia, but just 13% among the Sunnis—possibly because they view China as an ally of the Shia regime in Iran. Christians are almost evenly divided about these two leaders as well.

On a few salient internal issues, by contrast, the Lebanese public exhibits a strong consensus across sectarian lines—although not in a way that should give Beirut government much comfort. Fully 95% of the total population, and the overwhelming majority of every sect, say their government is doing “too little” in “reducing the level of corruption in our economic and political life.” In addition, a statistically equivalent total, 92%, say their government is also doing too little to ensure “sharing the burden of taxes and other obligations… in a fair manner.” While these are criticisms nearly all Lebanese can agree on, the political paralysis and entrenched special interests spawned by their sectarian differences on so many other issues seem likely to prevent much progress in addressing them.

In Egypt, One-Third Still Like the Muslim Brotherhood; Half Call U.S. Ties “Important”

New findings from a reliable Egyptian public opinion poll reveal very divided popular attitudes, both on the country’s domestic direction and about its outside partners. Yet Egyptians mostly agree with their government on several key foreign policy issues. A mere 12% want good relations with Iran; even fewer, just 5%, have a positive view of Hezbollah. In sharp contrast, a solid majority (71%) want Arab states to play a constructive role in promoting an Israeli-Palestinian agreement.

The most striking data point from this poll is that 33% of Egyptian Muslims still voice at least a “somewhat positive” opinion of the Muslim Brotherhood (including 6% with a “very positive” view). This remains the case even though the Brotherhood has been officially outlawed as a “terrorist” organization and subjected to continual media vilification over the past five years. The proportion is virtually unchanged since the previous two polls, conducted in 2015 and 2017.

Moreover, exactly the same percentage of Egypt’s Muslims, one-third, also have a positive attitude toward Hamas—widely viewed as the Brotherhood’s Palestinian branch. These findings, so much at variance with official policies, help explain the Egyptian government’s preoccupation with internal stability and control above all. At the same time, they suggest that overt Islamist opposition to President Sisi’s regime would not enjoy majority popular backing.

But an even larger percentage of Egyptians, around half, express dissatisfaction with official policies on a series of other internal issues. For example, 49% say their government is doing too little in “reducing the level of corruption in our economic and political life.” The same holds for “sharing the burden of taxes and other obligations to the government in a fair manner,” where 48% see inadequate official effort. And almost as many, 43%, say Cairo is also doing too little in “protecting the freedoms and privacy of individual citizens.”

More broadly, the overwhelming majority, 84%, agree that “right now internal political and economic reform is more important for our country than any foreign policy issue.” That high proportion is virtually unchanged from previous polling a year ago. The policy implication is that Egypt’s political stability depends more on internal than on external developments, even if the latter tend to receive more outside media and perhaps also official attention.

The only such question asked where a plurality (47%) say government policies are “about right” concerns “promoting opportunity and equality for women.” On that issue, a bit over one-third of Egyptians, Muslim and Christian alike, believe their government is actually doing “too much.” Overall, these findings indicate considerable popular discontent with official economic, social, and internal political management. Yet once again, vocal dissatisfaction or outright opposition remains below the majority level.

On selected foreign policy issues, in contrast, Egypt’s government fares better in terms of public opinion. Half of Egyptians consider good ties with the United States to be “important” for their country, even though a mere 7% have a good opinion of President Trump. Only a small minority, 18%, say they would prefer the United States to “reduce its interference in the region.”

By comparison, somewhat fewer (38%) say it is important for Egypt to have good relations with Russia—and just 8% voice a positive view of President Putin, despite recent high-profile deals and meetings. Furthermore, regarding Iran, the public agrees with its government’s adversarial posture: only 12% of Egyptians consider it even “somewhat important” for the two countries to maintain good ties. Even fewer, just 5%, have a favorable view of Iran’s ally Hezbollah.

On the Arab-Israeli issue, a solid majority of Egyptians continue to express views in line with Cairo’s reserved support for peacemaking—72%, unchanged from last year, agree that “Arab states should play a new role in Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, offering both sides incentive to take more moderate positions.” Nevertheless, until more progress is achieved, only a minority want the Arabs to “work with Israel on other issues like technology, counterterrorism, and containing Iran”—25%, about the same as last year.

Egyptian popular concern with the Palestinian issue, while not the highest priority overall, continues to be higher than among other Arab publics further away, such as in the Gulf. Asked about their top priority for U.S. policy in the region, a plurality (33%) of Egyptians pick “push harder to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.” In second place, at 22%, is more American help against jihadi terrorism, followed distantly by greater effort to settle the Yemen civil war or to resist Iranian influence in the region.

Notes on Methodology

The findings from Lebanon are based on a face-to-face survey conducted by a regional commercial firm among a representative national sample of 1,000 Lebanese respondents in November 2018. The sampling procedure followed standard geographic probability techniques, with no weights applied to the resulting data. The statistical margin of error for each major sectarian subsample is approximately 4.5%. The Egypt survey was conducted with the same timing and methodology, involving 1,000 Egyptian respondents. The statistical margin of error was approximately 3%. The data are not weighted; the total sample comprised 94% Muslims and 6% Coptic Christians. Full methodological details are available on request.

David Pollock is the Bernstein Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of Project Fikra.

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