MESOPOTAMIA NEWS : BY MEIR AMIT INTELLIGENCE & TERRORISM INFORMATION CENTER – ISRAEL

Main events of the week

  • The Syrian army campaign to take over the ISIS enclave northeast of As-Suwayda is about to end. ISIS operatives have been repelled to the area of Al-Safa, their main stronghold, and are now surrounded and cut off from supplies. The expected takeover of the enclave marks the end of the Syrian army’s campaign in the south of the country and will enable it to turn its attention to the Idlib area, the last significant remaining outpost of the rebel organizations in Syria.

  • This week, the Syrian army continued to reinforce its troops in key areas around Idlib. At the same time, leaflets were dropped over Idlib and in towns and villages in the area, calling on residents to join local reconciliation arrangements, with the aim of driving a wedge between them and the rebel organizations. The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham, and possibly other organizations as well, recently launched a steadily increasing number of UAVs at the Russian airbase in Hmeymim (to date with no damage or losses). At the same time, diplomatic talks continue, mainly between Russia and Turkey, two key players in the Idlib region, in order to reach an agreed formula that will facilitate the Syrian army’s takeover of the area.
  • In Jordan, an IED was detonated this week against a security patrol southeast of the city of As-Salt. One member of the patrol was killed and six others were wounded. The terrorist squad that carried out the attack fled to a building in the nearby city of As-Salt. During the exchange of fire between the squad operatives and the Jordanian security forces, the building was blown up. Four other Jordanian security operatives were killed and about 20 security operatives and civilians were wounded. In the ITIC’s assessment, the modus operandi of the attack matches that of ISIS, but it has not claimed responsibility so far, possibly due to considerations related to the security of additional operatives who are wanted by the Jordanian security forces. This is the first terrorist attack in Jordan in around two years (the previous attack was carried out by ISIS in the city of Al-Karak, in southern Jordan, on December 18, 2016).
  • In Afghanistan, fighting continues between ISIS and the Taliban. Recently, ISIS appears to be in distress, manifested in the massive surrender of its operatives in the north of the country to the Afghan army (more than 150 operatives turned themselves in). In view of the above, ISIS called on Muslims around the world to volunteer and go to Khorasan (Afghanistan/Pakistan) if they are unable to go to Syria and Iraq. In the ITIC’s assessment, this call is an indication of the current set of priorities of ISIS’s activity in its various provinces around the world: Syria and Iraq continue to be the main focus of the organization’s activity, followed by Afghanistan and then the other provinces. This, in the ITIC’s opinion, requires international security cooperation to improve the supervision of young Muslims traveling to Afghanistan.
Russian involvement in Syria –  Increasing the frequency of UAV attacks against the Hmeymim base
  • The Russian Center for Reconciliation between the Warring Parties in Syria reported that between August 9 and August 13, eleven UAVs were launched from sites under the control of “illegal armed formations” in the Idlib region and in the northern part of the Latakia Province (where the Hmeymim base is located). It was reported that in all cases, the Russian air defense systems located the aircraft at a considerable distance from the base and destroyed them. There were no casualties and no damage was caused as a result of these attempted attacks (Russian Ministry of Defense Website, August 9-13, 2018).

Since the withdrawal of most of the Russian forces from Syria (November 2017), the Hmeymim airbase, one the main permanent bases of the Russian forces in Syria, has constituted a major target for attacks by the rebel organizations in the Idlib area, mainly the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham (formerly the Al-Nusra Front). Initially the attacks were carried out by firing rockets and mortar shells, and subsequently by UAVs launched at Hmeymim. In recent weeks, the attacks on the Hmeymim base have increased in frequency, apparently in view of the imminent Syrian attack in the Idlib area. In July, at least 25 UAVs reportedly attempted to enter the Russian base’s airspace (TASS News Agency, August 9, 2018). Some of the aircraft carried explosives and others were on reconnaissance missions. According to reports, in most of the attacks the aircraft were intercepted at a considerable distance from the Russian base, with no casualties or damage.

The Russian Foreign Minister’s remarks on the situation in Idlib during his visit to Ankara
  • On August 13-14, 2018, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Ankara and met with his Turkish counterpart. According to what Lavrov said at a press conference held by the two foreign ministers, the situation in the de-escalation zone in Idlib is more complex than in other areas due to the dominance of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham, whose operatives in the region are estimated at tens of thousands. He stressed that the key point is the ongoing difficulty in separating the “moderate” rebel organizations from the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham operatives, who are not displaying willingness to negotiate. Lavrov noted that in the past, the situation in the Idlib region had stabilized following the deployment of Turkish outposts in the area, but recently, “violent actions” have been carried out there once again, mainly by the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham. These actions include firing at positions of the Syrian forces and launching UAVs at the Russian base in Hmeymim on a daily basis. According to Lavrov, the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham should constitute a legitimate target for all forces fighting against the terrorist organizations and extremist organizations in Syria (Russian Foreign Ministry website, August 14, 2018).
Syria –  Syrian army’s attack against the ISIS enclave in As-Suwayda

On August 5, 2018, the Syrian army launched a ground attack against the ISIS enclave in the desert area northeast of As-Suwayda. The attack took place southeast, southwest, and west of the enclave. After fighting which lasted for about a week, the Syrian army took over most of the territory of the enclave. Now it is besieging the Al-Safa area, a volcanic, mountainous area which is considered ISIS’s main stronghold in the region (suwaida24.com, August 11, 2018). The Syrian army’s ground attack is carried out with the support of airstrikes and artillery fire. According to reports, many ISIS operatives are now being besieged in the Al-Safa area, encircled on all sides and cut off from supplies.

The Al-Safa area, where ISIS operatives are being besieged (marked in black). ISIS still controls this area (Muraselon, August 12, 2018)
The Al-Safa area, where ISIS operatives are being besieged (marked in black). ISIS still controls this area (Muraselon, August 12, 2018)

  • For three days, the Syrian forces advanced to a distance of 30 km into the eastern As-Suwayda Desert. The Syrian troops searched the areas which they had taken over. At the same time, fighter plane airstrikes and artillery fire at ISIS targets continued (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, August 9, 2018). On August 10, 2018, it was reported that the Syrian forces had reached the As-Safa area after fierce clashes with ISIS (Al-Masdar News, August 10, 2018). ISIS attacked with small squads the Syrian army troops and the forces supporting it. Those ISIS squads were partly hit by the army while trying to retreat to the Al-Safa area (suwayda24.com, August 11, 2018).
Syrian army column of forces moving in the As-Suwayda Desert (from a video of the Syrian Army’s Information Office) (Twitter account of Hezbollah’s Central Military Information Office, August 8, 2018)    Syrian army tank during activity against ISIS (SANA, August 8, 2018).
Right: Syrian army tank during activity against ISIS (SANA, August 8, 2018). Left: Syrian army column of forces moving in the As-Suwayda Desert (from a video of the Syrian Army’s Information Office) (Twitter account of Hezbollah’s Central Military Information Office, August 8, 2018)
  • On August 11, 2018, the Syrian army and the Syrian forces supporting it started to besiege the Al-Safa area. On August 12, 2018, the Syrian army announced that after fierce fighting, during which many ISIS operatives were killed, the army had completed its takeover of the As-Suwayda Province, except for the area of Al-Safa, which was besieged from all directions and cut off from supplies. Other ISIS operatives fled the area towards Jordan and the area of the Al-Tanf crossing, where a manhunt was carried out after them (SANA, August 12, 2018; Sama TV, August 12, 2018; Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, August 13, 2018).
 ISIS position on the outskirts of Al-Safa, seized by the Syrian army and the forces supporting it (Sama TV, August 12, 2018)   Syrian army armor forces on the outskirts of the Al-Safa area.
Right: Syrian army armor forces on the outskirts of the Al-Safa area. Left: ISIS position on the outskirts of Al-Safa, seized by the Syrian army and the forces supporting it (Sama TV, August 12, 2018)
Negotiations continue to release the Druze abducted by ISIS
  • Informal negotiations continue between ISIS and the Syrian regime and representatives of the As-Suwayda Province, to bring about the release of the 30 Druze abductees held by ISIS. The Syrian regime is trying to have them released in return for ISIS operatives and detainees affiliated with ISIS which are being held in Syrian prisons and detention facilities (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, August 9, 2018). Another option raised in the negotiations was allowing ISIS operatives besieged northeast of As-Suwayda to be evacuated to the Homs Desert in return for the release of the hostages (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, August 9, 2018).
The Idlib area

This week, the Syrian army continued to reinforce its troops in the Hama region and in other areas surrounding the rebels’ control area in the Idlib Province. The area north of Hama was reinforced with the “Tiger Forces” and with additional Syrian units (Al-Jazeera, August 11, 2018; Al-Arabiya Al-Hadath, August 10, 2018). This is carried out as part of the Syrian army preparation in advance of a campaign to take over the region (Nabras Al-Ard, a website supporting the Syrian regime; YouTube, August 5, 2018). At the same time, diplomatic negotiations mainly between Russia and Turkey continue with the aim of making it easier for the Syrian forces to take over the Idlib area and preventing unnecessary losses (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, August 10, 2018).

The control areas in the Idlib region (updated to August 10, 2018): The Syrian army and the forces supporting it (in red); The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and the rebel forces (in green); Russian and Turkish supervision posts (indicated by flags). The city of Idlib is marked with a red circle (Syrian NORS Institute for Strategic Studies, August 10, 2018)
The control areas in the Idlib region (updated to August 10, 2018): The Syrian army and the forces supporting it (in red); The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and the rebel forces (in green); Russian and Turkish supervision posts (indicated by flags). The city of Idlib is marked with a red circle (Syrian NORS Institute for Strategic Studies, August 10, 2018)

Leaflets dropped over the Idlib area calling on residents to join surrender agreements
  • On August 9, 2018, Syrian army aircraft dropped leaflets over the city of Idlib and other towns and villages in the area controlled by the rebels. The leaflets call on residents to join local reconciliation agreements (i.e., surrender arrangements) as soon as possible to stop the bloodshed and have security and stability reinstated by the Syrian regime (Muraselon, August 9, 2018; Al-Arabiya Al-Hadath, August 8, 2018).
Leaflets dropped by Syrian aircraft over the city of Idlib. The leaflet on the left uses photographs to compare the situation of the residents before the “beginning of terror” (i.e., the uprising against the Assad regime) and the situation after the regime’s victory over the rebel organizations (Muraselon, August 9, 2018)   Leaflets dropped by Syrian aircraft over the city of Idlib. The leaflet on the left uses photographs to compare the situation of the residents before the “beginning of terror” (i.e., the uprising against the Assad regime) and the situation after the regime’s victory over the rebel organizations (Muraselon, August 9, 2018)
Left and right: Leaflets dropped by Syrian aircraft over the city of Idlib. The leaflet on the left uses photographs to compare the situation of the residents before the “beginning of terror” (i.e., the uprising against the Assad regime) and the situation after the regime’s victory over the rebel organizations (Muraselon, August 9, 2018)
Eastern Syria – SDF forces prepare for the attack on the ISIS-controlled Hajin
  • On August 10, 2018, reinforcements of the SDF forces arrived from the area south of Al-Hasakah to the area of the ISIS-controlled city of Hajin, about 25 km north of Albukamal (Euphrates Post, August 10, 2018). The SDF forces are preparing to attack the city, thus completing the mopping up of the desert area between the Euphrates River and Iraqi-Syrian border.
Main developments in Iraq – ISIS activity
  • Following are the main activities carried out by ISIS during this week:
    • A shooting attack was carried out in a football stadium about 7 km north of Shirqat (Al-Sumaria News, August 10, 2018). ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack. According to ISIS’s announcement, seven people were killed and wounded in the attack (Amaq, August 11, 2018).
    • ISIS claimed responsibility for the detonation of an IED against a military vehicle of the Tribal Mobilization in the area of Shirqat, about 90 km south of Mosul, wounding three Tribal Mobilization fighters (Amaq, August 1, 2018).
    • ISIS claimed responsibility for destroying an Iraqi army vehicle by an IED in the Al-Anbar Province. Four soldiers were killed in the attack (Amaq, August 12, 2018).
    • ISIS announced that its operatives had killed an intelligence operative north of Baghdad by an IED planted near his vehicle (Amaq, August 12, 2018).
    • ISIS reported that its operatives had captured several Tribal Mobilization fighters near the city of Baiji (www.k1falh.ga ISIS-affiliated website, August 13, 2018).
    • ISIS announced that its operatives had detained several Tribal Mobilization fighters about 90 km south of Mosul. ISIS released photos showing its operatives executing several detainees (www.k1falh.ga ISIS-affiliated website, August 14, 2018).

Execution of the Tribal Mobilization fighters by ISIS operatives (www.k1falh.ga ISIS-affiliated website, August 14, 2018)
Execution of the Tribal Mobilization fighters by ISIS operatives (www.k1falh.ga ISIS-affiliated website, August 14, 2018)

The activity of the Iraqi security forces
  • Following are the main activities carried out this week by the Iraqi security forces:
    • An Iraqi Federal Police force killed two ISIS operatives southwest of Kirkuk. One of the operatives killed was wearing an explosive belt. The force uncovered a network of tunnels in the area, as well as four IEDs (Al-Sumaria News, August 9, 2018).
    • An Iraqi Border Police force killed five ISIS operatives and detained two others while thwarting an infiltration attempt north of the Al-Qaim District in Iraq, near the Iraqi-Syrian border (near the Albukamal area) (Iraqi News Agency, August 10, 2018).
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