MESOPOTAMIA NEWS : A SADR GOVERNMENT IN IRAQ – WHAT WILL IT BE ?
Sadr Prepares for Role as Kingmaker – 21 May 2018 – CIPHER BRIEF
The recent parliamentary vote in Iraq saw anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s political coalition emerge with the most seats. Al-Sadr, who is working to form a coalition government as his bloc didn’t win a majority of the vote, assured Iraqis this past weekend that the next Iraqi government will be “inclusive.”
We asked Cipher Brief expert John Nixon, a former senior leadership analyst with the CIA who regularly briefed the most senior levels of U.S. government, to comment on the recent elections and al-Sadr, who will likely be a kingmaker in Iraq’s political future. • “Muqtada al-Sadr’s seeming electoral victory in Iraq’s 12 May parliamentary elections overturned expert predictions of the outcome and has brought hope that he can bring good governance and stability to Iraq. Despite having outperformed all other lists, government formation relies on coalition building and Sadr’s victory is not necessarily assured at this point.”
- “However, the keys to understanding Sadr’s political career—that also suggest why he may come out on top after the government is formed—are his resiliency as a political player in Iraqi politics and his ability to evolve as a politician and adopt new tactics to advance his cause.”
- “Sadr’s ascent is still not assured currently. He will not head the government because he did not run as a candidate. It is likely he will choose Abadi to stay in the PM slot. To attract technocrats to his government, Sadr must reach across sectarian and party lines because his followers lack the skills and education to make the Iraqi government a success. Finally, Sadr will probably maintain an independent line between Iran and the US, both countries who see winning Baghdad’s allegiance as a zero-sum game.”
Read Nixon’s column.