MESOPOTAMIA NEWS : A NEW MIDDLE EAST UNDER ISRAEL’S LEADERSHIP ? – Mapping the Middle East’s new alliance system
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN A new alliance system in the Middle East is emerging.
A WORKING PAPER 24 Nov 2020
The recent Israel peace agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have enabled the growth of a series of connections between states that share regional and strategic interests. This builds on existing ties. The new alliance system is not only one that unites countries against adversaries, such as some shared concerns about Iran or about Ankara’s current aggressive posture in the Eastern Mediterranean. It is also about wider strategy that links economic interests and security ties.
This new system is built on several existing alliances.
The Gulf, the ‘Sword of the Arabs’ training and Qatar crisis
The Gulf state system, led by Saudi Arabia, has included the Gulf Cooperation Council. This group includes Saudi Arabia long with Bahrain, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar. However the Gulf crisis of 2017 led to a break between Saudi Arabia and its close allies in Abu Dhabi and Manama, and Qatar. This accelerated a process that links Qatar to Turkey and their shared support for groups like Hamas and others linked to the Muslim Brotherhood. Unsurprisingly Riyadh and its allies, such as Egypt, have banned the Brotherhood and have encouraged countries like the US to label it a terrorist organization. Turkey-Saudi relations continued to sour in 2018 and 2019.
In addition Riyadh led its allies into Yemen to oppose the Iranian-backed Houthis. This has led to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including energy infrastructure near the UAE and also the Abqaiq facility. These same states have interests in Iraq and the Arar border crossing reopened after decades of closure.
Oman has sought to be a mediator with Iran, and has also hosted Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2018. Meanwhile Kuwait has tended to be more open to dialogue with Qatar. Jordan, which has colder relations with Netanyahu, seeks close cooperation with the Gulf. For instance the king of Jordan was in Abu Dhabi on November 17 along with the king of Bahrain. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Jordan and the UAE sent soldiers to Egypt for a week-long training, dubbed Sword of the Arabs, at the end of November 2020.
Since May 2019 there have been increasing tensions with Iran, including the mining of six ships off the coast of the UAE and Oman in May and June 2019. A US drone was downed. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has made high profile visits to the region, along with Washington’s envoy Avi Berkowitz, who flew with the Bahrain Foreign Minister to Israel on November 17.
Pompeo was in the Gulf on August 23 and in Greece at the end of September, sketching out this emerging alliance system through his trip, which included Sudan. He has condemned Iran’s aggressive actions during these trips and the US State Department condemned Turkey for hosting Hamas leaders twice this year. This all built on the May 21, 2017 summit that Trump held in Saudi Arabia, prominently meeting with the King of Saudi Arabia and Egypt’s leader Abdel Fatah al-Sisi.
The Greece-Israel-UAE connection
Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Cyprus and Greece entered into closer partnership through a gas forum that was created in the summer of 2020. In August the UAE sent F-16s to train with Greece. The Prime Minister of Greece came to the UAE on November 17 and signed an agreement cementing ties. It looks to lay the groundwork for more joint training.
F-35s can seal the deal
The US and Israel did three joint trainings this year with F-35s and the US wants to sell F-35s to the UAE, potentially creating an F-35