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MESOP TODAYS HEADLINE : IT’S NOT AL COLD WAR – IT’S WORSE !
MESOP TODAY’S COMMENTARY : BY WASHINGTON INSTITUTE
RUSSIA’S SYRIA MOVE IS A MIXED BLESSING FOR IRAN
By Olivier Decottignies – October 5, 2015 – For all the praise (and relief) Moscow’s deployment is eliciting in Tehran, continued Russian involvement will likely cut into Iran’s influence. Read all: http://www.mesop.de/?p=65833
MESOP TODAYS COMMENTARY (II) : BEST BAD IDEA FOR AMERICA IN SYRIA
OP-EDS AND ARTICLES FROM THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY
By Andrew J. Tabler – CNN – October 5, 2015 – As Russia, Iran, and Assad fight to carve out their future spheres of influence in Syria, Washington needs to help its Sunni allies establish their own spheres and retake eastern territory from ISIS and al-Qaeda.In the spring of 2011, as Syrians were out in the streets demanding dictator Bashar al-Assad step aside, I worked with Obama administration officials on a set of economic and oil sanctions that would help force al-Assad to “step aside.” Back in those days, his regime was only using live gunfire on protestors. But I remember telling my administration interlocutor that it would take a lot more than sanctions to get rid of al-Assad, and the sooner it’s done, the better. Read all: http://www.mesop.de/?p=65847
MESOP OPINION BY JAMES JEFFREY – FORMER US AMBASSADOR IN TURKEY
RUSSIAN OVERFLIGHT OF TURKEY: MORE THAN MEETS THE EYE?
By James F. Jeffrey – October 6, 2015 – The province that Putin’s jets buzzed this weekend holds special demographic and historical significance, raising questions about the incident’s potential significance as a warning to Ankara.
Although modern military technology such as radar vectoring and GPS navigational aids make unintentional overflights of neighboring territory relatively rare, such incidents do occur in military operations. But what makes Russia’s October 3 overflight of Turkish territory potentially worrisome is its location. According to an October 5 Turkish Foreign Ministry press release, the Russian aircraft flew over the Yayladagi/Hatay region. While that area is close to the Syrian border and not far from fighting between Assad regime and rebel forces, it has dramatic significance for other reasons.Hatay is populated in part by ethnic Arabs of the Alawite sect of Islam — the same sect as Bashar al-Assad and most of his closest generals, advisors, and supporters. The province also has a convoluted history that could complicate Ankara’s calculus about the Russian intervention. Hatay was known as Sanjak of Alexandretta until the early twentieth century, and its mixed population of Alawite and Sunni Arabs, Turks, Turkmens, Circassians, Armenians, Levantines, and Kurds was not part of Turkey as established by the post-World War I Treaty of Lausanne. Rather, the area was mandated to France along with Syria and Lebanon. Read all: http://www.mesop.de/?p=65870
MESOP : TODAYS RELEVANT VOICES – Turkey Summons Russian Envoy Over Air Space Violation
Turkey summoned the Russian envoy for a second time following that a second Russian jet violated Turkish air space. NATO criticized Russian activity and said the incursion did not appear accidental (Guardian). Separately, Russian volunteer soldiers are expected to join (NYT) Syrian forces on the ground. On Tuesday, a Russian delegation will meet with Israeli officials for talks (Reuters) on how to avoid accidental clashes Syria. Expert Edward P. Djerejian discusses Russia’s military action in Syria in this CFR Interview. www.mesop.de
WEST KURDISTAN (SYRIA)
MESOP : OBAMA GOES WITH PYD/PKK KURDS & PUTIN GOES WITH BAGHDAD (IRAN) / A carnival of decisions
U.S. & PYD (PKK) Kurds preparing to open a major front in northeastern Syria
WASHINGTON — The American-led coalition fighting the Islamic State has begun preparing to open a major front in northeastern Syria, aiming to put pressure on Raqqa, the terrorist group’s de facto capital, according to military and administration officials. Read all: http://www.mesop.de/?p=65860
MESOP : UNITED STATES WARNS RUSSIA It’s not a cold war – it’s worse !
Russian jets entered Turkish for a second time, according to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, leading him to conclude the incursions are intentional. “It doesn’t look like an accident and we also have seen two of them, two violations of Turkish airspace,” Stoltenberg said in remarks in Brussels yesterday. “Intelligence that we have received provides me with reason to say it doesn’t look like an accident.” Both of the incidents took place over the weekend. Secretary of State John Kerry said the Obama Administration is “greatly concerned” about the violations of Turkish airspace, noting that “it is precisely the kind of thing that had Turkey responded under its rights could have resulted in a shoot-down.” U.S. officials now believe that Russia is making a concerted effort to target U.S.-supported Syrian rebels trained by the CIA instead of Islamic State targets. “On day one, you can say it was a one-time mistake,” a senior U.S. official told the Wall Street Journal. “But on day three and day four, there’s no question it’s intentional. They know what they’re hitting.”
Russia has reportedly included several strikes against the Islamic State in their air campaign. Syrian state media claims that Russian jets targeted Islamic State militants in Palmyra yesterday. In Iraq, the leadership of the Badr Brigade, a powerful Shia militia with ties to Iran, said they would “greatly welcome” Russian airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Iraq. www.mesop.de
MESOP : THE ARAB GULF STATE INSTITUTE IN WASHINGTON
Rushin’ to Syria: Riyadh Pledges to Counter Moscow’s Sudden Escalation / by Hussein Ibish
5 Oct 2015 – The civil conflict in Syria has been a major concern for many Gulf Arab states since the outbreak of the uprising against the Baathist dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad over four years ago. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait, among others, have been some of Assad’s leading regional opponents and strong proponents of regime change in Damascus. They have therefore reacted strongly to Russia’s escalation in Syria and are among the harshest critics of Moscow’s direct intervention into the conflict by conducting airstrikes against rebel groups and building up Russian ground forces. These developments will likely encourage a deeper engagement by Gulf Arab countries in the Syrian conflict in the coming months. Read all: http://www.mesop.de/?p=65828
MESOP SYRIA News Roundup: Tuesday, October 6 : ALL JOINTLY AGAINST RUSSIA
FSA, Jabhat a-Nusra ally in north Homs ahead of expected Russian-backed offensive
AMMAN: Free Syrian Army (FSA) affiliates have united with Ahrar a-Sham and Jabhat a-Nusra for the first time in north Homs to confront an expected regime ground offensive supported by the Russian Air Force, Nasir a-Nahar, a rebel commander with the Homs Legion told Syria Direct on Tuesday. “The Homs Legion, Ahrar a-Sham and Jabhat a-Nusra have joined to form a new operations room to fight the coming threat,” said a-Nahar. Read all: http://www.mesop.de/?p=65858
MESOP – RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES IN SYRIA: SEPTEMBER 30, 2015 – OCTOBER 5, 2015
Oct 6, 2015 – Genevieve Casagrande (ISW) – Click for Map
Russian airstrikes continue to primarily target Syrian opposition groups throughout northwestern Syria, including areas along the Turkish border in northern Latakia Province. Russian warplanes violated Turkish airspace and harassed Turkish F-16s in at least two separate incidents over Hatay Province of southern Turkey on October 3 and 4, prompting an emergency NATO meeting on October 5. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) also claimed airstrikes targeting ISIS-held positions northeast of Palmyra. The Russian MoD later clarified that the airstrikes did not hit positions within the city of Palmyra itself following contrary reports in Syrian state media. In addition, the Russian MoD claimed its first airstrikes in Damascus Province on October 5. However, local reporting has not yet substantiated these claims and, thus, ISW does not assess them at even a level of Low Confidence at this time. Read all + watch MAP: http://www.mesop.de/?p=65872
Abdallah al-Muhaysini, a Pivotal Figure in the Islamist Insurgency in Syria by Waleed Rikab
JOSHUA LANDIS BLOG ( CLICK FOR PICS)
for Syria Comment – 7 October 2015 – Abdallah al-Muhaysini came to Syria in 2013 to partake in the uprising against Bashar al-Assad. He presents a unique case of the outsized role a single person can play in the lawless world of the Syrian rebellion. He has positioned himself at the center of radical jihadist politics, fund raising, and legal opinion. Read all + watch pics : http://www.mesop.de/?p=65874
SOUTH KURDISTAN (IRAQ)
MESOP : FRAGILE STATE – FRAGE ECONOMY – GROWING MIGRATION
Iraq: The Fragile Economy of a Fragile State / BY NUSSAIBAH YOUNIS AND SALI MAHDY – The Atlantic Council – There is little to envy in the life of embattled Iraqi Premier Haider al-Abadi, who is struggling to finance a war against the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) even as the collapse of oil prices has crippled the Iraqi economy. As the Iraqi parliament begins to deliberate over the proposed budget for next year, Iraq’s escalating financial woes and the significant challenges that lay ahead make clear that lawmakers will have to reconsider Iraq’s budget strategy and elicit significant support from international actors to sustain its economic (and political) health in 2016.Iraq’s 2015 so-called austerity budget, which slashed spending by 16 percent and introduced sales taxes on vehicles, airline tickets, cell-phone credit, alcohol, and cigarettes, has failed to keep to the $22 billion deficit specified by the budget. One analyst forecasts that Iraq’s budget deficit for 2015 could reach an astonishing $35 billion—around 20 percent of Iraq’s GDP. Read all: http://www.mesop.de/?p=65830
NORTH KURDISTAN (TURKEY)
MESOP OPINION : TURKEY IS IN SERIOUS TROUBLE – By Soner Cagaptay
The Atlantic – October 5, 2015 – I am usually an optimist when it comes to Turkey’s future. Indeed, I wrote a whole book about “The Rise of Turkey” (http://washin.st/RiseofTurkey). But these days, I’m worried. The country faces a toxic combination of political polarization, government instability, economic slowdown, and threats of violence — from both inside and outside Turkey — that could soon add up to a catastrophe. The likelihood of that outcome is increasing amid Russia’s bombing raids in Syria in support of its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, which threaten to debilitate the moderate rebels and boost the extremists in Syria’s civil war, while leaving Turkey to deal with two unruly neighbors: Assad and ISIS. Read all: http://www.mesop.de/?p=65849
THE GERMAN KURDISH CHAPTER
MESOP : BUNDESREGIERUNG VERÖFFENTICHT KEINE FLÜCHTLINGSROGNOSEN/ZAHLEN MEHR
Germany Expects up to 1.5 Million Migrants in 2015 / The Telegraph. United Kingdom. – 7 Oct 2015
Turkey: 3 Million More Syrian Refugees May be Headed to EU
Ekathimerini. Greece. – 7 Okt 2015
Aus einer Million Flüchtlinge könnten sieben werden: So funktioniert der Familiennachzug –
www.focus.de – Jederzeit erreichen viele junge, männliche Flüchtlinge Deutschland. Viele von ihnen wollen ihre Familien nachholen. Deshalb zeigen die aktuellen Flüchtlingszahlen nicht das ganze Bild. In einem internen Bericht heißt es nun, dass aus 920.000 Flüchtlingen so 7,36 Millionen werden könnten. FOCUS Online…
MESOP : JENSEITS VON “PRO ASYL”
- Christen, Kurden und Jesiden werden in den Unterkünften von Muslimen mit zunehmender Regelmäßigkeit und Grausamkeit angegriffen.
- “Ich bin vor dem iranischen Geheimdienst geflohen, weil ich dachte, in Deutschland kann ich endlich meine Religion ohne Verfolgung leben. Aber ich kann in meinem Asylbewerberheim nicht offen sagen, dass ich Christ bin. Dann werde ich bedroht… behandeln mich wie ein Tier. Sie drohen mich zu töten.” – ein irakischer Christ in einer deutschen Flüchtlingsunterkunft.
MESOP : CRAZY – BUT TRUE !
Flüchtlings-Kooperation mit Türkei: So soll der “Merkel-Plan” die Krise beenden
n-tv.de NACHRICHTEN – 6 Oct 2015 – Der türkische Präsident Erdoğan bekommt in Brüssel einen Vorschlag vorgelegt, der den Durchbruch in der Flüchtlingsfrage bringen soll. http://www.n-tv.de/politik/So-soll-der-Merkel-Plan-die-Krise-beenden-article16075331.html
MESOP: ERDOGAN WILL NOT DO IT ONLY FOR THE MONEY – Erdogan will Hilfe der EU im Kampf gegen Kurden
6 =kt 2015 – DIE ELT – In der Flüchtlingskrise wollen die Europäische Union und die Türkei künftig enger zusammenarbeiten. Doch dafür verlangt Erdogan, dass die EU den Kampf gegen die PKK ernster nehmen soll. Es sei „traurig zu sehen“, dass einige Staaten die kurdische Arbeiterpartei PKK in der Praxis nicht als Terrororganisation behandelten, sagt der türkische Präsident Erdogan. http://www.welt.de/politik/article147245850/Erdogan-will-Hilfe-der-EU-im-Kampf-gegen-Kurden.html?config=print