MESOP WARNING ! – INTELLIGENCE UPDATE BAGHDAD

ISIS seeks to break down political boundaries in the Middle East by cultivating conditions for governmental failure, especially in Iraq. Baghdad represents an important location for ISIS to target. ISIS spokesperson Abu Muhammad al-Adnani stated on 11 June that ISIS’s intent to attack Baghdad and toppling the standing Iraqi government. Consistent, coordinated, and overwhelming attacks in Baghdad proper might sufficiently address the organization’s political strategic objectives. ISIS has apparently altered its military posture in Baghdad Province from that which had been witnessed since the fall of Mosul, possibly indicating a new move in this direction. Multiple attacks including SVESTs, coordinated VBIEDs, and indirect fire have occurred along avenues of approach to the capital and also within Baghdad proper. Most significantly, ISIS conducted a VBIED wave on 19 July. A VBIED wave is ISIS’s signature attack pattern and features six or more VBIEDs in a single day.

The VBIED wave on 19 July was the first ISIS has conducted since 13 May, representing the most dangerous element of the observed step change. The VBIED wave demonstrates ISIS’s high level of inter-cell coordination, its reach into Baghdad proper, and its ability for multiple teams to communicate, even in the context of Baghdad’s heightened security posture since the fall of Mosul. ISW assesses that ISIS is testing ISF and Shi’a militia responses to ISIS attacks in order to determine how to develop an attack plan that considers how opposing forces react and move. ISW also assesses that ISIS is reallocating resources in preparation for an ISIS main offensive in Baghdad.

ISIS may be pursuing its Baghdad campaign both inside the city and from the Baghdad Belts, the areas surrounding the city that have traditionally functioned as support zones for ISIS and its predecessor, al-Qaeda in Iraq. Previous ISW assessments hold that ISIS has robust presence and access to the northern, western, and southern Baghdad Belts. It is also possible that ISIS established sleeper cells Baghdad prior to or during the current northern offensive that have not yet activated. It is important to consider whether recent events in Baghdad illustrate how ISIS may be preparing to attack.