MESOP TODAY’S : Iraq Situation Report

MESOP TODAY’S : Iraq Situation Report

by: Sinan Adnan and Brian Fisher  by isw –  4 Nov 2014 – Key Takeaway:  ISIS escalated its attacks in the capital as Shi’a Muslims commemorated the anniversary of Imam Hussein’s death in what is known as Ashura, or the tenth day of Muharram. This religious anniversary is always marked by increased security measures in Baghdad aimed to protect the Ashura participants. The indirect fire launched on the northern part of Baghdad most likely originated from the outer northern belt, an area known for having ISIS presence even when it operated under the name of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI).

Although the attacks did not produce high casualties, the timing and location of the attacks can increase sectarian violence in the capital where Iraqi Shi’a militias enjoy freedom of movement. Meanwhile, no attacks were reported in Karbala, where the major Ashura celebration takes place. This is likely an effect of the recent ISIS defeat in Jurf al-Sakhar of northern Babil, which used to be the closest area of ISIS concentration to Karbala. Also, the Defense Minister, an Iraqi Sunni, visited Karbala which is a positive step toward decreasing sectarian tension. Moving north, although ISIS has launched numerous attacks on the Baiji Oil Refinery since June, the attack today shows that ISIS still has freedom of movement in the area despite the recent ISF and militia gains in Baiji district.