by: Patrick Martin and ISW Iraq Team –Key Takeaway: Two parallel security operations by anti-ISIS forces are underway in Iraq, one in Ramadi that is led by the Iraqi Security Forces with U.S.-led coalition support, and one that is led by Iranian agents in Baiji. The ISF are approaching Ramadi city from multiple sides, but no ISF forces have yet penetrated the city center, which ISIS has likely prepared with IED rings and other static defenses. If the ISF are unable to clear ISIS from Ramadi, it will undermine the credibility of U.S. support to Iraq at a time when Russia and Iran are competing with the U.S. for leadership of anti-ISIS operations in Iraq and Syria. Meanwhile, PM Abadi announced a major operation to recapture Baiji from ISIS on October 7 that is likely being led by Iranian proxy militias, based on the presence of several senior militia leaders and IRGC Quds Force commander Qassim Suleimani in the Baiji area before the start of operations. If the militias succeed in recapturing Baiji and the nearby refinery while the ISF-led operation in Ramadi flounders, PM Abadi will face immense pressure to continue permitting the proxy militias to take a leading role in operations. The failure of the ISF to reclaim Ramadi will also suggest not only the relative failure of the U.S.-led coalition as an effective partner for Iraq, but also a operational re-prioritization away from Anbar, which signifies a departure from a strategy to re-establish a unity Iraq.
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