MESOP TODAYS ARGUMENTS & ANALYSIS I

“Will the Iran nuclear deal create a more stable Middle East? That all depends — on the United States” (Kenneth M. Pollack, Markaz)

“What could potentially cause Iran to change its behavior — for good or ill — are the policies the United States pursues in the region going forward. If the United States uses the JCPOA as an excuse to further disengage from the region, it is highly likely that Iran’s goals will become more expansive and its policies more aggressive, believing that the United States no longer has the will or the capability to stop it. On the other hand, if the United States reacts to the JCPOA by stepping up its engagement in the region and acting decisively — providing real, meaningful assurances to its Gulf allies that it truly is concerned with protecting their security interests and pushing back hard on Iran in other areas, particularly in Syria — then it is very likely that the Iranians will respond in the same way they always have the United States has flexed its muscles: by backing down. As always, the United States is master of its own fate to a much greater extent than any other country on earth, even in the turbulent and unpredictable Middle East.”