MESOP : THE KIRKUK TAKEOVER

Kurds’ Takeover of Iraqi City of Kirkuk Strengthens Their Hand / Nejmaldin Karim – Van Wilgenburg

By Joe Parkinson / Wall Street Journal –  June 20, 2014 – KIRKUK, Iraq—As thousands of Iraqi soldiers fled this oil-rich province in the face of advancing Sunni jihadists last week, the region’s Kurdish Gov. Nejmaldin Karim met behind blast walls with his security chiefs.

Their decision: to order Kurdish forces, the Peshmerga, to advance from nearby cities, occupy Iraqi bases and secure the Kirkuk oil field. “It was very quick,” said Mr. Karim, a 30-year former resident of Washington. “To describe the last week as a change is an understatement. Things have turned upside-down.”

In the days since the extremist Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, or ISIS, seized swaths of Iraqi territory, the implications of their startling advance is only starting to come into focus. But one thing is clear: The Kirkuk operation brings the Kurds, who make up 20% of Iraq’s population, closer than ever to their dream of an independent state.

The gambit expands the sway of the semiautonomous Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government in the north and shows how Iraq’s current conflict is altering the political landscape in ways that could be difficult to reverse.

The Kurds’ gains, which analysts say expand their territory by more than a third, have also brought challenges barely imaginable just days ago. Peshmerga forces are now defending a new 620-mile border against Sunni insurgents.

But the gains also have fostered a palpable sense of optimism and pride here among Kurds, who view Kirkuk as their cultural and political capital. “I feel like the time has arrived for Kirkuk to rejoin the Kurdistan region,” said Shorsh Khalid Ahmed, a 30-year-old government employee. “The time for Kurdistan’s independence is closer than anytime before.”

Other ethnic groups who contest this city aren’t pleased. Sunnis and Turkmen are threatening to revolt if the Kurds refuse to share the city’s administration and its oil revenue. The main Turkmen political group said it rejected unilateral Kurdish rule and would form its own militia. Any declaration of independence could face opposition from neighboring Turkey, which has cultivated strong ties with the Kurds in Iraq but is concerned about the precedent such a move might set for its own restive Kurdish population. The U.S., too, is against over any splintering of Iraq and neighboring Syria along ethnic lines.

“The Kurds are getting closer to independence but the obstacles mean they will likely try to continue to incrementally build autonomy,” said Wladimir Van Wilgenburg, an analyst at the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington-based think tank. “They appear to have momentum.” Senior Kurdish and Iraqi government officials explained how the Kurds cemented their control over Kirkuk amid the chaos of the Iraqi army’s retreat.

Panic began to seize the Iraqi military on June 12 after ISIS captured the city of Mosul, opening a southbound route toward Kirkuk, Kurdish officials said.

“It seems the army saw what happened in Mosul and were gripped by a psychological panic and a herd mentality,” said Jabar Yawar, chief of staff at Kurdistan’s Peshmerga ministry. “Things got out of control very quickly.”

On June 13, Mr. Karim said he called the first of his emergency meetings with security chiefs to discuss options to defend the Kirkuk region against a possible attack. At that point, Muhammed halaf al-Dulaimi, commander of the Iraqi army’s 12th battalion stationed on the edge of Kirkuk, was insisting his troops would stay to defend the city, people at the meeting said.

The facts on the ground contradicted that. In Kirkuk, city police chief Jamal Taher Baker watched with alarm as officers in neighboring towns called to report that the soldiers were ditching their uniforms and fleeing. “One police commander called me and told me everyone was panicking and the army was leaving,” Mr. Baker said. “Shortly afterward, 400 police followed them and fled to Kirkuk city.” By evening, Mr. Karim said it was clear the Iraqi army was rapidly disintegrating, with bases, checkpoints and guard posts being looted of arms. “The heads of the brigades were emotionally defeated,” he said. “I talked to one of them more than 10 times that night, but it was clear we would have to take other measures.”

By Thursday morning, thousands of Kurdish reinforcements, including the 2nd battalion led by Commander Eyub Yusuf Said, arrived in Kirkuk to help secure the region. Kurdish commanders instructed units to move into Iraqi bases and fan out to secure the surrounding Kurd-dominant villages and towns.

Mr. Said instructed his men to take control of the Iraqi army base at Kirkuk’s military airport, a strategic with radar and U.S.-made armored Humvees.”We got there at around 1 p.m. and the remaining army officers were waiting for us on the road in their cars,” Mr. Said said. “We walked into the base and they sped off.”

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki doesn’t dispute that his troops abandoned their posts, and even threatened troops them with execution for doing so. “Frankly, this was our chance to get rid of those cowards and weaklings,” he said in a televised address. “This is our opportunity to improve the army and purify it from these elements.”

Some Turkmen and Arab members of Kirkuk’s provincial council say the ease with which the Kurds took control of the region suggests they made a secret pact with ISIS. Kurdish officials reject that accusation. Mr. Karim says the Kurds protected the city from insurgents and didn’t make a land grab because they were already dominant in many city institutions. In the week since the Kurds took control, Kirkuk city has been mostly calm, but clashes with Sunni fighters continue and are in some cases are intensifying, suggesting Kurdish forces could be in for a long fight. “We’re worried because the terrorists have captured better weaponry and may use it against us,” said Sarhad Qadar, the head of Kirkuk’s regional police force. “I’m from Kirkuk and I’m ready to die to protect it.” http://online.wsj.com/articles/kurds-takeover-of-strategic-city-strengthens-their-hand-1403238922