MESOP Syria Update: December 9-16, 2014 – by: Christopher Kozak (ISW)

ISIS Increases Presence in Western Syria

A string of recent defections and rumored defections to ISIS in rebel-held areas of western Syria – including outer Eastern Ghouta, southern Dera’a Province, and northern Homs Province – signals some level of discontent with the current status quo among the Syrian armed opposition. Although the recent defections consist of relatively small numbers of fighters and face a hostile reaction from local rebel forces, ISIS will likely use this method over the short-to-medium term to expand its presence into areas near the regime and rebel heartlands of western Syria.

JN and Ahrar al-Sham Seize Wadi al-Deif and al-Hamidiyah Army Posts

The rapid success of the assault on the Wadi al-Deif and al-Hamidiyah army bases delivers a clear message regarding the ascendant power and influence of JN and other Islamist groups in northern Syria following the expulsion of the Western-backed Syrian Revolutionaries Front (SRF) from the province last month. JN and Ahrar al-Sham leveraged their unique tactical assets and operational planning abilities to conduct simultaneous, coordinated offensives which achieved an objective unmet by a rebel siege lasting nearly two years. JN’s use of at least one U.S.-provided TOW missile during the operation provides support to recent reports indicates that the United States ceased providing salaries and weapons to CIA-vetted rebel groups in Idlib and Hama Provinces due to recent JN seizures of TOW missiles from the SRF and Harakat Hazm.

Regime Forces Tighten Grip around Aleppo City

The capture of the al-Mellah farmland area brings the regime one step closer to severing supply lines leading to rebel-held areas of Aleppo city and the successful encirclement of Syria’s largest city, threatening the population with a siege-and-starve campaign similar to that experienced by rebels in the Old City of Homs from 2011 to 2014. However, it remains to be seen whether regime forces will be able to sustain their gains.