MESOP NEWS MUSINGS ON IRAY BY JOEL WING – Iranian General Soleimani in Action
| Posted: 29 Jan 2017 10:42 AM PST – Iran is now concentrating upon the war in Syria, but from 2014-15 Iraq was its major focus. When the Islamic State swept through Ninewa, Salahaddin, and Kirkuk provinces in the summer of 2014, Tehran was the first to offer assistance to the Iraqi government. Military support was only part of Iran’s program however. It also launched a sophisticated propaganda campaign to promote itself as the savior of Iraq. This was carried out on social media mostly via Facebook, Twitter, and other platforms. At the center of this effort was Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander General Qasim Suleimani. He appeared on all the major battlefronts in Iraq again and again on the Internet. The success of this campaign was shown in a survey done of pilgrims to the Shiite shrine in Karbala.
Gen. Suleimani seen visiting the Tirkit front in 2015 (Al Alam) A group of three researchers working for the Massachusetts Institute of Technology interviewed 1,668 Iranians and 2,410 Iraqis during Arabaeen in Karbala in 2015. Those questioned overwhelmingly supported Iran’s policies in the Middle East. When asked what motivated Iran in the region the most popular response for Iraqis, 40.68%, was to protect Shiite communities. That compared to 27.33% of Iranians selecting that choice. That showed how effective Iran’s propaganda campaign was within Iraq. Iraqis felt like Tehran was helping them more than Iranians themselves. This was of course in the middle of the war with the Islamic State, Iraqis were still feeling vulnerable, and when Iran was pumping up its role in Iraq far above the U.S. led Coalition, which preferred having the Iraqis claim responsibility for their victories. Other factors shaping the response would be the negative view most of those interviewed had of America, as well as religious Shiites being more open to Iran’s role then others. In contrast, a plurality of Iranians, 39.28% believed that national security was the main driver of Tehran’s foreign policy.
SOURCES Christia, Fotini, Dekeyser, Elizabeth, Knox, Dean, “To Karbala: Surveying Religious Shi’a from Iran and Iraq,” Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 10/20/16 Christia, Fotini, Dekeyser, Elizabeth and Knox, Dean, “Mapping Shiite Opinion,” Foreign Affairs, 10/24/16 |
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| Mosul Campaign Day 103, Jan 28, 2017
Posted: 29 Jan 2017 10:41 AM PST January 28 was the fourth day with a pause in operations in the Mosul campaign. The biggest news however didn’t come from the battlefield, but on the political front. That came from the Joint Operations command that announcedan arrest warrant for ex-Ninewa Governor Atheel Nujafi. Nujafi already had a warrant out for him from October for his collaboration with Turkey. Previously, his unit the Hashd al-Watani also known as the Ninewa Guards worked with the 16thDivision and helped free nine villages and neighborhoods on the northern front, and was securing the Hadbaa neighborhood. Given that collaboration, the new warrant had to have come from political opponents. For example, one parliamentarian from Ninewa Ahmed al-Jabouri complained that turning over parts of Mosul to the Hashd al-Watani was a betrayal. Other politicians made similar statements the day before. Nujafi is extremely unpopular in Baghdad due to his alliance with Turkey and Kurdish President Massoud Barzani, and has rivals within Ninewa as well. Like the first warrant however, this new one is unlikely to be carried out as Nujafi can go back to Irbil where he has been based, and where orders from the central government are rarely carried out. Inside Mosul there was limited activity. The Iraqi Forces (ISF) continuedto shell west Mosul as it made plans to assault that side of the city. Mosul Mayor Hussein Hajim accusedthe Islamic State of making random arrests and executions in the west to maintain its control. There’s likely to be at least a week of inactivity while the Iraqi units rest and refit after their grueling battle to subdue east Mosul. After that an assault will be launched on the west. There was another reportthat IS still has access to Syria. The Voice of America had a story that IS was moving back and forth from Mosul to Syria. The Hashd reached Tal Afar to the west of Mosul in November and were tasked with cutting off all of the insurgents’ supply lines to Syria. That apparently has not happened. SOURCES Adel, Loaa, “Islamic State conducts random arrests and executions in western Mosul,” Iraqi News, 1/28/17 Buratha News, “Deputy for Nineveh: Delivery of left bank of Mosul to Atheel Nujafi a betrayal of the martyrs,” 1/28/17 Al Maalomah, “Parliamentary security said good preparation for the battle of the right bank of Mosul,” 1/28/17 Al Mada, “Joint operations Najafi’s popular crowd out of left bank of Mosul,” 1/28/17 Mostafa, Mohamed, “Iraqi forces shell Islamic State locations in western Mosul,” Iraqi News, 1/28/17 – “Joint forces to arrest former Nineveh governor if found in Mosul,” Iraqi News, 1/28/17 – “Photos: Mosul activists replace Islamic State graffiti with delightful murals,” Iraqi News, 1/28/17 Shafaaq News, “Najafi: political pressure managed to pry Nineveh Guard from Mosul,” 1/28/17 Al Sumaria, “Report confirms Daesh still able to move between Mosul and Syria,” 1/28/17 |
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