MESOP NEWS ISRAEL INTEL OVERVIEW : Spotlight on Global Jihad (December 14-20, 2017)

• Following President Putin’s announcement about the removal of a “substantial portion” of the Russian forces in Syria, the evacuation process began this week. According to Russian media reports, warplanes, various ground forces and military equipment have been removed from Syria. The Pentagon spokesman said in response that the US had not noticed a significant reduction in the size of the Russian force in Syria. However, according to the spokesman’s announcement, US and Coalition forces will continue to support the “local forces” in order to stabilize the situation in the liberated territories and complete the victory over ISIS.
• In the campaign for the takeover of Idlib, battles continued between the Syrian forces and the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham in the area northeast of Hama. ISIS, on its part, continues to carry out acts of terrorism and guerrilla attacks in various parts of Syria. Prominent among them were the attack on the positions of a militia affiliated with the Syrian regime in a neighborhood on the outskirts of Damascus, which included the use of suicide bombers, and the killing of two Revolutionary Guards commanders in the rural area of Deir ez-Zor. Throughout Iraq, clashes continue between the Iraqi security forces and ISIS operatives, as Iraqi forces continue to carry out mopping-up operations in the various provinces.

• Abroad, ISIS’s terrorist campaign continued, with noteworthy attacks in the Khorasan Province (Afghanistan/Pakistan). This week there was a combined attack which included the use of suicide bombers against the training center of the Afghan National Directorate of Security in the capital Kabul; In Pakistan, ISIS suicide bombers carried out a mass-killing attack in a church; In Egypt, a missile hit Al-Arish Airport during a visit by the ministers of defense and interior. A lieutenant colonel and a colonel were killed. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack (December 20, 2017). In St. Petersburg, Russia, a suicide bombing attack in a church (Kazan Cathedral) was foiled following information given to the Russians by the CIA. The Russian President thanked his American counterpart.

Russia and the United States

Incident between Russian and American planes in the area of the Euphrates River

• A senior Pentagon official confirmed that on December 13, 2017, a pair of American warplanes fired warning flares at a pair of Russian warplanes that had strayed from their course and were flying east of the Euphrates River over a “safe zone” agreed upon between the two sides. After the warning flares were fired, the two Russian planes left the area (Washington Examiner, December 14, 2017). The Russian Ministry of Defense denied these reports, which were published in the US and British media. According to its version, the two planes were escorting a “humanitarian aid convoy” near the city of Al-Mayadeen, on the west bank of the Euphrates River. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the US planes disrupted the flight of the Russian planes, but when another Russian plane was sent to the area, the US planes left (Facebook page of the Russian Ministry of Defense, December 14, 2017).
• Lt. Col. Damien Pickart, a spokesman for the US Air Force Central Command, noted that according to an oral agreement between the US and Russia from early November, the Russian forces would operate on the western side of the Euphrates River and the US forces on the eastern side (where the SDF forces operate). According to him, the Russian forces violated this agreement several times in the past and moved to the eastern side of the Euphrates River without advance warning. US Defense Secretary James Mattis said that it was not yet possible to determine whether this and similar incidents in the past had been caused by an error, lack of coordination between the sides, or for some other reason (CNN, December 15, 2017; US Department of Defense website, December 15, 2017; Radio Liberty, December 16, 2017).

The evacuation of the Russian forces in Syria

• On the orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the evacuation of the Russian forces in Syria has begun. According to a report by the Russian Ministry of Defense, after completing their mission in Syria, the Su-34 aircraft stationed at Hmeymim Base returned to Khurba Air Force base in Russia. Members of engineering units, including sappers, experts and field engineers, also returned to Russia (TASS News Agency, December 14, 2017, and December 17, 2017). In addition to the engineering units, weapons, armored vehicles, robotic systems and special heavy machinery were also sent back to Russia (TASS News Agency, December 17, 2017). On the other hand, Alexey Borodavkin, the Russian envoy to the Geneva talks, said that the Russian army would remain at Hmeymim Base and in Tartus in order to support the Syrians in the fight against terrorism, and especially against the Al-Nusra Front (the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham), which is still active in Syria (TASS News Agency, December 15, 2017).

    Pentagon Spokesman Major Adrian Rankine-Galloway said that the US had not noticed a significant reduction in the size of the Russian forces in Syria since President Putin’s declaration (December 11, 2017). However, he added that the withdrawal of the Russian forces would not affect US priorities in Syria and that the Coalition forces would continue to operate and support the “local forces.” This is in order to complete the military victory over ISIS and stabilize the situation in the liberated territories (Radio Liberty website, funded by the US government, December 13, 2017).

Evacuation of Russian civilians from Syria and Iraq

• Concurrently with the evacuation of military forces from Syria, Russia is evacuating its civilians from the areas of the former Islamic State. Over the past four months, over 90 women and children, including citizens of Chechnya, Dagestan and other regions of the Russian Federation, have reportedly been evacuated to Russia.
• On December 14, 2017, Ramzan Kadyrov, Head of the Chechen Republic, announced on his Telegram page that on President Putin’s orders, he would continue the efforts to bring Russian citizens back from Syria and Iraq. Kheda Saratova, a member of the Human Rights Council of Chechnya, said that Chechnya plans to evacuate 104 women and children from Syria and Iraq. According to Saratova, most of these women and children are from Russia and Kazakhstan. According to her, around 700 people have expressed their desire to return to their home countries and are in need of assistance (TASS News Agency; Kremlin website, December 14, 2017).

Main developments in Syria

ISIS’s guerrilla activity in the Deir ez-Zor area continues

•  ISIS’s news agency reported that two Iranian Revolutionary Guards commanders had been killed in clashes with ISIS operatives in the Deir ez-Zor rural area. The commanders, whose photos had been released, are Mahdi Qarah Mohammadi and Mahdi Imani (Haqq, December 15, 2017).

The campaign to take over Idlib

Preparations of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham in advance of the campaign in Idlib

• Upon the beginning of the campaign for the takeover of Idlib, the Sharia Council of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham (formerly, the Al-Nusra Front), the dominant organization in the region, announced a general mobilization in order to halt the advance of the Syrian forces. The Syrian troops reportedly crossed the border of the Idlib Province, with the interim objective of reaching the military airfield of Abu Ad-Duhur (Al-Mayadeen, December 14, 2017). The Abu Ad-Duhur airfield, southeast of Idlib, is probably the first interim target of the Syrian forces.
• According to a source of the Shura Council of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham, efforts are being made to set up a joint operations room of most rebel organizations in northern Syria. According to the source, a meeting was held to this end with the participation of Abu Mohammad Al-Julani, commander of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham, and other commanders. During the meeting, a reconciliation agreement was reached between the organizations (Zaman Al-Wasl, December 13, 2017). In the wake of the agreement, on December 14, 2017, the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham reportedly released most of the Ahrar Al-Sham operatives whom it had detained (Al-Durar Al-Shamiya, December 14, 2017).

Clashes with the Syrian regime forces

• According to reports by the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham, on December 15, 2017, there were clashes between the Syrian forces and the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham in several sites southeast of Idlib (northwest of Hama). Battles took place around the village of Al-Mushayrifa, about 61 km southeast of Idlib, and elsewhere. According to Syrian sources, the Syrian army took over the town (SANA, December 16, 2017). A day later, it was reported that the forces had been forced to retreat for fear of losses of soldiers and military equipment. Russian Air Force planes carried out several airstrikes against targets in the town, in preparation for its takeover once again by the Syrian regime troops (Al-Bawaba News, December 18, 2017).

Clashes between the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and ISIS operatives

•  While at war with the Syrian army, the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham is also fighting against ISIS operatives in an enclave about 50 km northeast of Hama (see map). Thus, even when the operatives of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham are fighting for their own existence, hostility between them and ISIS, the rival jihadi organization, persists, finding expression in clashes in the rural area northeast of Hama.

Senior Chechen commander killed

• A senior military operative codenamed Salah al-Din al-Shishani (i.e., the Chechen) was reportedly killed in the clashes between the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and ISIS. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the Chechen commander was killed in a Russian airstrike (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, December 17, 2017; Mourassiloun, December 18, 2017).
•  Salah al-Din the Chechen has been the most senior among the commanders from the Caucasus operating in Syria. In 2014-2015, he headed a military unit called Jaysh Al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar, which was subordinate to the Al-Nusra Front’s command (the latter subsequently became the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham). One of the groups of this units, headed by Omar the Chechen (who has since been killed), broke away and joined ISIS, and Salah al-Din the Chechen followed suit and joined ISIS as well. In 2014, he tried to convince ISIS to join forces with the Al-Nusra Front in fighting against the Syrian regime, but ISIS refused. Subsequently, Salah al-Din the Chechen headed a military framework called Jaysh Al-‘Usrah, comprising jihadists from the Caucasus who seceded from Jaysh Al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar. It seems that the group that he headed tried to remain neutral in confrontations been the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and the rebel forces on the one hand, and ISIS on the other (Al-Bawaba, December 19, 2017; Enab Baladi, December 18, 2017).

ISIS’s suicide bombing on the outskirts of Damascus

• On December 13, 2017, ISIS operatives attacked positions of the National Defense Militia, affiliated with the Syrian regime, in the Tadamoun neighborhood in south Damascus, near the Yarmouk refugee camp (which is under ISIS’s control). Three suicide bombers, who arrived in the neighborhood in a bullet-proof vehicle, blew themselves up with explosive belts. Other operatives, who were making their way on foot, took over buildings of the National Defense Militia for a short while. Five militia operatives were killed and several others were taken prisoner. The ISIS operatives retreated after the Syrian army and the militias supporting it sent reinforcements (Orient News, December 16, 2017).
• ISIS’s Damascus Province released photos where its operatives are seen attacking the positions of the Syrian militia. According to ISIS, at least two Syrian army soldiers were killed in the attack, and weapons were seized (Haqq, December 15, 2017).

   
Right: ISIS operatives on their way to attack the Syrian militia positions in the Tadamoun neighborhood in south Damascus. Left: Some of the weapons seized by ISIS (Haqq, December 15, 2017)

Main developments in Iraq

Disarming the Shiite militias

• Following Iraqi Prime Minister Haydar Al-Abadi’s announcement on the complete liberation of Iraq from ISIS, Muqtada Sadr, a senior Iraqi Shiite leader, announced that the war against ISIS was over. He instructed his forces to surrender their arms and dismantle most of their outposts (Al-Nahar, December 11, 2017). Qais Al-Khaz’ali, the leader of Asa’eb Ahl Al-Haqq movement, also announced that he was placing his operatives under the Iraqi prime minister’s command and that he contented himself with the organization’s political arm as a political party (RT, December 14, 2017).

ISIS guerrilla warfare and terror attacks and Iraqi counterterrorist activities

• Following are the main events of the passing week:
  • Al-Ramadi area: At least 17 ISIS operatives, including foreign fighters, who were hiding in a tunnel around Wadi Al-Qadhf, were killed in an airstrike carried out by an Iraqi aircraft. Hitting the target was made possible through intelligence received (Iraqi News Agency, December 17, 2017).
  • Diyala Province: The Headquarters of the Iraqi Army Ground Forces reported that 25 villages on the border between the Diyala and the Salah Al-Din provinces had been cleared from ISIS presence. Units of the Popular Mobilization (Iranian-affiliated umbrella framework of Shiite militias) also took part in the operation. The Iraqi forces detonated 15 IEDs and destroyed three tunnels. The Iraqi Air Force, which provided the troops with air support, destroyed two motorcycle bombs (Al-Sumaria News, December 17, 2017).
  • The city of Kirkuk: The counterterrorism forces detained two ISIS operatives and seized vehicles and weapons. The detentions were carried out only minutes after ISIS operatives had attacked a security forces outpost and the headquarters of the Iraqi Turkmen Front in the neighborhood of Al-Musalla in Kirkuk (where there is Turkmen majority) (Al-Sumaria News, December 16, 2017).^[1]
  • The border between Iraq and Syria: ISIS announced that its operatives had set fire to three positions of the Popular Mobilization operatives and took over three additional positions near the Iraqi-Syrian border, close to the Tell Safouq border crossing in northern Iraq. According to ISIS’s message, seven Popular Mobilization fighters were killed and several others were wounded. A number of APCs were hit (Haqq, December 17, 2017).
  • The Mosul area: An ISIS suicide bomber who tried to blow himself up near the apartment of the province officer was killed when a hand grenade that he held in his possession exploded. He was wearing an explosive belt. The incident took place in the village of Rafaylah, about 46 km south of Mosul (Iraqi News Agency, December 17, 2017).
  • The border between the Diyala Province and the Salah Al-Din Province: The Popular Mobilization announced that its forces, along with the Iraqi security forces, had mopped up the Al-Mutaybeejah Basin area from ISIS operatives. This area is situated about 66 km north of the city of Baqubah (north of Baghdad). They then headed to the nearby villages to complete the mopping up (Popular Mobilization website, December 17, 2017).
  • On December 17, 2017, ISIS announced that its operatives had detonated several IEDs in the Al-‘Urayj area, about 13 km south of Mosul. Thirteen Popular Mobilization operatives were killed and wounded (Twitter, December 17, 2017).