MESOP NEWS BACKGROUNDER : March 2017 By Genevieve Casagrande & Kathleen Weinberger (ISW)

Putin’s Real Syria / FULL TEXT

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) produced this report with the Critical Threats Project (CTP). The insights are part of an in­tensive multi-month exercise to frame, design, and evaluate potential courses of action that the United States could pursue to destroy the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) and al Qaeda in Syria. The ISW-CTP team recently released “America’s Way Ahead in Syria,” which details the flaws in the current U.S. approach in Iraq and Syria and proposes the first phase of a strategic reset in the Middle East

Key Takeaway: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s primary objective in Syria is to constrain U.S. freedom of action – not fight ISIS and al Qaeda. Russia’s military deployments at current levels will not enable the Iranian-penetrated Assad regime to secure Syria. Moscow’s deepening footprint in Syria threatens America’s ability to defend its interests across the Middle East and in the Mediterranean Sea. The next U.S. step in Syria must help regain leverage over Russia rather than further encourage Putin’s expansionism.

Russia’s intervention in Syria in September 2015 fundamentally altered the balance of the Syrian Civil War.1 Russia re-established momentum behind Syrian President Bashar al Assad and his Iranian allies at a moment when major victories by ISIS and Syrian rebels threatened to force the regime to contract into Syria’s central corridor.2 The capabilities Russia deployed were not limited to the airframes, artillery, and personnel needed to conduct a counter-terrorism or counter-insurgency mission, however. Russia deployed advanced air defense and ballistic missile systems, naval units, air superiority aircraft, and other capabilities in a display of major Russian force projection in the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin is altering the balance of power in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean through sustained Russian military operations and additional deployments of high-end capabilities.

Russian Force Projection

Russia ultimately seeks to expand its permanent naval and air bases on the Syrian coast in order to further project force into the Mediterranean and Middle East. Russia’s establishment of an anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) exclusion zone from its bases at Latakia and Tartous allows Russia to create de-facto no fly zones in the Eastern Mediterranean as well as over most of Syria. These A2/AD zones constrain U.S. freedom of movement and ultimately raise the cost of U.S. involvement in Syria.3 Russia deployed the naval version of the S-300 to protect the airspace over Latakia airbase in Syria in November 2015.4 Russia also deployed the S-400 in late November 2015 shortly after the Turkish downing of a Russian jet.5 Russia has since deployed an additional seven S-300 systems in an effort to build in redundancies, advance the integration of its air defenses, and provide more comprehensive coverage.6 The S-300 and S-400 systems are road mobile and interoperable, increasing the difficulty of neutralizing the systems. [See Appendix I]

Putin wants to challenge the U.S. and its allies by increasing Russian military and political influence in the Middle East. Russia has rotated a wide range of naval vessels to participate in the conflict in order to demonstrate the capabilities of these units and Russia’s willingness to deploy them in the Mediterranean. Russia has deployed some of its most advanced non-nuclear naval capabilities to the Eastern Mediterranean.7 Russian subsurface and surface vessels successfully engaged ground targets in Syria after launching Kalibr cruise missiles from the Mediterranean and Caspian Seas.8 Russia has shown it can undertake precision strikes with the nuclear-capable Kalibr cruise missile at significant distance.

2

Russia also maintains anti-ship capabilities in the Mediterranean, including the Bastion-P coastal defense system. Russia demonstrated the land attack capabilities of the Bastion in November 2016.9 Russia has also deployed battle cruisers that bring advanced anti-ship and air defense capabilities off the Syrian coast. Russia’s deployment of its much-ridiculed aircraft carrier the Admiral Kuznetsov nevertheless showcased its force projection capabilities and intent to exhibit its naval presence in the Mediterranean.10 [See Appendix II]

Putin has deployed air defense and anti-ship systems to Syria in order to threaten the United States. Russia does not need these systems to support the counter-terrorism campaign it claims it is waging against anti-Assad opposition groups in Syria. Those groups do not operate aircraft or naval vessels. Russia also deployed the nuclear-capable SS-26 ‘Iskander’ ballistic missiles to Syria and used the systems to attack opposition-held terrain.11 The Iskander missiles provide no meaningful additional advantage against the opposition. The only conceivable target for these advanced systems is the U.S. and its allies. [See Appendix III]

Constrain U.S. Freedom of Action

Russia has used its deployment to constrain U.S. freedom of action and limit American policy options in Syria. Russia deployed the S-300 and S-400 air defense systems to deter the U.S. from direct military action against the Assad regime through the unilateral establishment of a no-fly zone. Russia has also forward deployed assets beyond its air and naval bases on the coast in order to further complicate the prospect of direct U.S. strikes against the Syrian regime for fear of inadvertently hitting Russian troops. Sources estimated that Russia maintains between 1,500 and 4,000 military personnel in Syria.12 These personnel are primarily concentrated in Latakia, Aleppo, and Tartous Provinces, but are also active in Hama, Homs, Damascus, and Hasakah and include a wide range of units including air assault, tank, medical, naval infantry, and special operations forces. [See Appendix IV]

Russia has intentionally removed potential U.S. partners within the armed opposition from the battlefield in Syria. Russian airstrikes from October 2015 to March 2017 have primarily targeted the mainstream Syrian opposition – not ISIS – in order to ensure the opposition’s defeat through its submission, destruction, or transformation. The Russian air campaign has driven what remains of the mainstream opposition closer to Salafi-jihadi groups, which are stronger and better able to defend against intensified pro-regime military operations. Russia is also exacerbating radicalization through its deliberate, illegal targeting of civilians. Russia has consistently targeted hospitals, schools, and other critical civilian infrastructure throughout the sixteen months of its air campaign.

Russian Testing Grounds

Russia has also used sustained use of transport aircraft in Syria to exercise the Russian military’s overall combat readiness and force projection capabilities. Expeditionary logistics and force projection is difficult for militaries to exercise, in general. Russia is exercising expeditionary logistics by air and sea in Syria.13 Russia is refining its ability to deploy its military personnel and equipment rapidly at a large scale in order to message its ability to threaten the U.S. and its NATO and European allies. Russia announced its intent to prioritize the development of naval equipment for troop transport on March 8 in order to increase the Russian Navy’s ability to provide logistical support in Syria and in other coastal zones.14 Russia also re-supplies and provides combat support for 3

forces in Syria through frequent deliveries from Russian Il-76 and An-124 transport aircraft. As of October 2016, these transport aircraft were making multiple trips to Syria each month and it is likely that these aircraft continue to make regular trips to Syria. [See Appendix V]

Limitations of Russian Capabilities

Putin faces a number of economic and military constraints that limit the resources Russia can bring to bear in Syria. Russia’s economic crisis has forced Russia to balance limited resources across key theaters like Ukraine, the Baltics, the Middle East, and domestically in Russia. Putin has opted to pursue multiple, mutually reinforcing lines of effort using a diverse set of naval, air, missile, and ground capabilities in Syria. The overlap allows Russia to extract significant benefits with minimal cost. The Russian military has demonstrated its many shortcomings during its deployment to Syria, including frequent friendly fire incidents, losses of Russian aircraft, a poor performance by Russia’s aging aircraft carrier the Admiral Kuznetsov, and reports of mechanical failure of Russian equipment.15

The Russian deployment, at current levels, will be insufficient to grant Assad victory over the opposition, al Qaeda, or ISIS. Russia, Iran, and the regime have been unable to sustain significant simultaneous operations against ISIS and the Syrian opposition, despite Russia’s considerable airframe deployments. Russian airframes were unable to prevent ISIS’s recapture of Palmyra in December 2016 alongside a final pro-regime push to defeat the opposition in Aleppo, for example.16 Russia has instead used ‘cessation of hostilities’ agreements to drawdown its airstrikes against the opposition and surge its air campaign against ISIS for limited periods of time.17 Salafi-Jihadi groups have meanwhile begun to consolidate the opposition under more effective command-and-control structures, increasing rebels’ capabilities and resiliency.18 This dynamic will not only lead to a protracted and bloody civil war for the foreseeable future, but it ultimately raises the requirements for the U.S. to deal with the conflict.

Implications

Russia is both an unacceptable and ineffective partner against jihadists in Syria. The Russian deployment is inconsistent with Putin’s narrative that Russia intervened in Syria in order to combat terrorists. Many of its capabilities have no utility in the anti-ISIS fight. Putin instead seeks to use Russia’s deployment to subordinate U.S. military action and policies to Russian objectives in Syria. Russia’s aggressive deployment to Syria intends to deter the U.S. from intervening for fear of incurring significant costs. Russia has largely pursued its objectives in Syria with impunity. It has deprived the U.S. of freedom of maneuver, disrupted U.S. partnerships with key allies in the region, and facilitated Russia’s emergence as a geopolitical force in the region. Any potential partnership with Russia in Syria will further strengthen jihadists and force the U.S. to capitulate to a Russian vision for the broader Middle East that endangers America’s security interests.

Genevieve Casagrande is a Syria Analyst at the Institute for the Study of War.

Kathleen Weinberger is a Russia and Ukraine Analyst at the Institute for the Study of War.

Institute for the Study of War Twitter: @TheStudyofWar

Critical Threats Twitter: @criticalthreats4

APPENDICES:

The following charts outline the high-end capabilities Russia has deployed to Syria since the start of the Russian intervention in September 2015.

APPENDIX I: Long Range Anti-Aircraft Systems 5

APPENDIX II: Naval Capabilities6

APPENDIX III: Ballistic Missiles7

APPENDIX IV: Russian Personnel8

APPENDIX V: Air Assets9

 

NOTES:

  1. “Russian Deployment in Syria: Putin’s Middle East Game Changer,” Institute for the Study of War, September 17, 2015, http://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ russian-deployment-syria-putin’s-middle-east-game-changer; “Russia’s First Reported Air Strikes in Syria Assist Regime with Targeting Broader Opposition,” Institute for the Study of War, September 30, 2015, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2015/09/russias-first-reported-air-strikes-in.html
  2. Christopher Kozak, “Forecasting the Syrian Civil War,” Institute for the Study of War, September 17, 2015, http:// understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Forecasting%20 the%20Syrian%20Civil%20War.pdf ; Jennifer Cafarella and Christopher Kozak, “Likely Courses of Action in the Syrian Civil War June-December 2015,” Institute for the Study of War, June 12, 2015, http://understandingwar. org/sites/default/files/SYR%20COAs%20Backgrounder. pdf ; Anne Barnard and Hwaida Saad, “ISIS Fighters Seize Control of Syrian City of Palmyra, and Ancient Ruins,” New York Times, May 20, 2015, https://www.nytimes. com/2015/05/21/world/middleeast/syria-isis-fighters-enter-ancient-city-of-palmyra.html?_r=0; Jennifer Cafarella, “Assad Regime Loses Idlib to Jabhat al-Nusra and Rebel Offensive,” Institute for the Study of War, March 30, 2015, http://iswresearch.blogspot.com/2015/03/ assad-regime-loses-idlib-to-jabhat-al.html
  3. General Joseph L. Votel, “The Posture of U.S. Central Command,” statement before the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, March 9, 2017, http://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Votel_03-09-17.pdf
  4. IBTimes, “Russia deploys S-300 anti-aircraft missile system in Syria after Sinai plane crash,” IBTimes, November 5, 2015, http://www.ibtimes.co.in/russia-deploys-s-300-anti-aircraft-missile-system-syria-after-sinai-plane-crash-653450 ; RT, “Sneak peek: A look at Russian air shield in Syria, included guided S-300 missile cruiser and S-400.” 18 December 2015. http://www. rt.com/news/326381-cruiser-moskva-s-400-syria/
  5. “S-400 Missile Radius Map,” Institute for the Study of War, December 21, 2015, http://understandingwar. org/map/s-400-missile-radius-map ; Jonathan Marcus, “Russia S-400 Syria missile deployment sends robust signal,” BBC, December 1, 2015, http://www.bbc.com/ news/world-europe-34976537
  6. Chris Harmer and Kathleen Weinberger, “Russia Advances its IADS in Syria,” Institute for the Study of War, October 16, 2016, http://iswresearch.blogspot. com/2016/10/russia-advances-its-iads-in-syria.html
  7. Russia has deployed its advanced Kilo class, diesel-electric powered submarines to the Black Sea Fleet, which have taken part in offensives in Syria from the Mediterranean. Kilo-class submarines are equipped with nuclear-capable Kalibr cruise missiles. Russia launched strikes against targets in Syria using Kalibr missiles equipped with a conventional payload from the Rostov-na-Don Kilo-class submarine in December 2015 and from the Admiral Grigorovich frigate in November 2016. Surface vessels in Russia’s Caspian fleet had previously carried out similar strikes in November 2015.
  8. “Russian submarine with cruise missiles off Syria coast – reports – RT.com”. RT, 18 December 2015, https:// www.rt.com/news/325060-russian-kilo-submarine-syria/. “Russian Admiral Grigorovich Frigate Targets Terrorists in Syria.” Sputnik, 15 November 2016. https:// sputniknews.com/military/201611151047453617-frigate-syria-missiles/. Genevieve Casagrande and Jodi Brignola, “Russian Strikes in Syria: November 6-17, 2015,” Institute for the Study of War, November 18, 2015, http:// iswresearch.blogspot.com/2015/11/russian-airstrikes-in-syria-november-6.html
  9. Nicholas de Larrinaga, Sean O’Connor, and Neil Gibson, “Russia Reveals Bastion-P deployment, land attack role in Syria,” IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly , November 16, 2016, http://www.janes.com/article/65517/russia-reveals-bastion-p-deployment-land-attack-role-in-syria
  10. Chris Kozak, Kathleen Weinberger, Genevieve Casagrande and Jonathan Mautner, “Warning Update: Russia Escalates Its Air Campaign in Syria,” Institute for the Study of War, November 17, 2016, http:// iswresearch.blogspot.com/2016/11/warning-update-russia-begins-major.html ; Jonathan Mautner, Genevieve Casagrande, and Christopher Kozak with Omar Kebbe, Kathleen Weinberger, Franklin Holcomb, and Benjamin Knudsen, “Warning Update: Russia Prepares to Escalate Military Intervention in Syria,” Institute for the Study of War, November 4, 2016, http://iswresearch.blogspot. com/2016/11/warning-update-russia-prepares-to.html
  11. Lucas Tomlinson, “Russia sends Syria its largest missile delivery to date, US officials say,” Fox News, February 8, 2017, http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/02/08/ russia-sends-syria-its-largest-missile-delivery-to-date- 11

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us-officials-say.html ; Jonathan Mautner, “Russian Airstrikes in Syria: January 12 – February 7, 2017,” Institute for the Study of War, February 10, 2017, http:// iswresearch.blogspot.com/2017/02/russian-airstrikes-in-syria-january-12.html .

  1. The exact number of Russian military personnel in Syria is unknown. Open source reports estimate between 1,500 and 4,000 Russian troops remain in Syria. [See Appendix III]
  2. Jack Stubbs and Maria Tsvetkova, “Russia builds up forces in Syria, Reuters data analysis shows,” Reuters, October 7, 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-exclusive-idUSKCN1271YO
  3. Andrews Osborn, “Russia expands military transport fleet to move troops along distances,” Reuters, March 7, 2017, http://www.reuters.com/article/russia-navy-expansion-idUSL5N1GK470;

“Russian Defense Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu held another conference call,” Russian Ministry of Defense, March 7, 2017, http://function.mil(.)ru/news_ page/country/more.htm?id=12114155@egNews

  1. Gaith Ali, [“Russian airstrike targets the Jabla city for unknown reasons”], All4Syria, January 15, 2017, http:// www.all4syria.info/Archive/379639 ; Hwaida Saad and Eric Schmitt, “Syria Blames U.S. in Base Bombing, but Americans Blame Russia,” New York Times, December 7, 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/08/world/ middleeast/syria-airstrikes.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_ r=0 ; NOW Lebanon, “Errant Russia airstrike kills Hezbollah fighters: report,” NOW Lebanon, October 30, 2015, https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/566146- errant-russia-airstrike-kills-hezbollah-fighters-report ; Orient News, [“Friendly fire… Russian airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in Aleppo”], Orient News, December 14, 2016, http://www.orient-news.net/ar/news_show/12 8792/%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86- % D 8 % B 5 % D 8 % A F % D 9 % 8 A % D 9 % 8 2 % D 8 % A 9 – % D 9 % 8 2 % D 8 % B 5 % D 9 % 8 1 – % D 8 % B 1 % D 9 % 8 8 % D 8 % B 3 % D 9 % 8 A – % D 9 % 8 4 % D 9 % 8 5 % D 9 % 8 8 % D 8 % A 7 % D 9 ­% 8 2 % D 8 % B 9 – % D 8 % A D % D 8 % B 2 % D 8 % A 8 – % D 8 % A 7 % D 9 % 8 4 % D 9 % 8 4 % D 9 % 8 7 – % D 8 % A 8 % D 8 % A D % D 9 % 8 4 % D 8 % A 8 – % D 8 % B 9 % D 9 % 8 4 % D 9 % 8 9 – % D 8 % A E % D 9 % 8 4 % D 9 % 8 1 % D 9 % 8 A % D 8 % A 9 – % D 8 % A 7 % D 8 % A A % D 9 % 8 1 % D 8 % A 7 % D 9 % 8 2 -%D8%AD%D9%84%D8%A8 ; David Filipov and Andrew Roth, “Russian jets keep crashing, and it may be an aircraft carrier’s fault,” Washington Post, December 5, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russia-just-lost-its-second-warplane-in-a-month-of-syria/2016/12/05/ f8353be8-bad8-11e6-817f-e3b588251d1e_story. html?utm_term=.a24b417ff5d6 ; Thomas Gibbons- Neff, “Satellite images highlight potential problems with Russia’s lone aircraft carrier,” Washington Post, November 30, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost. com/news/checkpoint/wp/2016/11/30/satellite-images-highlight-potential-problems-with-russias-lone-aircraft-carrier/?utm_term=.393f55a93e34 ; Robert Beckhusen, “Why Russia’s Only Aircraft Carrier Might be Getting Ready for War in Syria,” The National Interest, July 5, 2016, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-russias-only-aircraft-carrier-might-be-getting-ready-war-16845 ; Enab Baladi, [“Explosion of Russian Military Vehicle Terrorizes Residents of Jabla and Banyas”], Enab Baladi, February 5, 2017, http://www.enabbaladi.net/ archives/129269
  2. Christopher Kozak and Alexandra Gutowski, “ISIS Recaptures Palmyra in Major Blow to Pro-Regime Forces,” Institute for the Study of War, December 13, 2016, http:// iswresearch.blogspot.com/2016/12/isis-recaptures-palmyra-in-major-blow.html
  3. Genevieve Casagrande, “Russian Airstrikes in Syria: Pre-and Post Cessation of Hostilities,” Institute for the Study of War, September 21, 2016, http://iswresearch. blogspot.com/2016/09/russian-airstrikes-in-syria-pre-and.html
  4. John Davison, “Syria Islamist factions, including former al Qaeda branch, join forces: statement,” Reuters, January 28, 2017, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-rebels-idUSKBN15C0MV ; Mariya Petkova, “Syrian opposition factions join Ahrar al-Sham,” Al Jazeera, January 26, 2017, http://www.aljazeera.com/ news/2017/01/syrian-opposition-factions-join-ahrar-al-sham-170126133928474.html
  5. The precise locations of the S-200 systems are not known, but they are likely deployed near the Syrian capital Damascus as well as near the Syrian coast in Tartous and Latakia Provinces.
  6. Jermey Binnie, “Syria now operating ‘restored’ S-200 SAMs,” IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, November 17, 12

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2016, http://www.janes.com/article/65557/syria-now-operating-restored-s-200-sams

  1. The precise locations of the additional seven S-300s deployed to Syria in November 2016 are not known, but they are likely also deployed to Damascus and Aleppo. John Reed and Nazih Osserian, “Israel said to target Damascus airport in second Syria strike in a week,” Financial Times, December 7, 2016, https:// www.ft.com/content/8d08632a-bc65-11e6-8b45- b8b81dd5d080; Leith Fadel, “Russia redeploys anti-aircraft missiles to Aleppo,” Al-Masdar News, November 15, 2016, https://www.almasdarnews(.)com/article/ russia-redeploys-anti-aircraft-missiles-aleppo/
  2. IBTimes, “Russia deploys S-300 anti-aircraft missile system in Syria after Sinai plane crash.”
  3. Vladimir Soldatkin, “Russia to upgrade its naval, air bases in Syria: Interfax,” Reuters, January 15, 2017, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-base-idUSKBN14Z0FQ
  4. MEHR, “Seven Russian S-300 air missile defense systems deployed in Syria,” MEHR, November 15, 2016, http://en.mehrnews.com/news/121364/Seven-Russian- S-300-air-missile-defense-systems-deployed-in-Syria
  5. “The Russian military deployed in Syria, seven anti-aircraft missile systems S-300,” Interfax Russia, November 15, 2016, http://www.interfax(.)ru/world/537117
  6. Kremlin, “Meeting with Defence Ministry leadership and defense industry representatives,” Kremlin News, November 15, 2016, http://en.kremlin(.)ru/events/ president/news/53256
  7. Jonathan Marcus, “Russia S-400 Syria missile deployment sends robust signal.”
  8. Sam Lagrone, “Kurdish Video Lends Credibility to Russian Navy Caspian Sea Strike Mission Claims,” US Naval Institute, October 7, 2015, https://news.usni. org/2015/10/07/kurdish-video-lends-credibility-to-russian-navy-caspian-sea-strike-mission-claims
  9. Nicholas de Larrinaga, “Russia launches sixth and final improved Kilo-class submarine,” IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, June 2, 2016, http://www.janes. com/article/60917/russia-launches-sixth-and-final-improved-kilo-class-submarine
  10. Naval Technology, “Russia begins scaling down military presence in Syria,” Naval Technology, January 9, 2017, http://www.naval-technology.com/news/newsrussia-begins-scaling-down-military-presence-in-syria-5712117
  11. “Russian Missile Cruiser Varyag Arrives in Mediterranean to replace Moskva cruiser off Syrian coast,” Youtube video, posted by “New Weapons”, January 3, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpjTcZegLb0
  12. Nicholas de Larrinaga, Sean O’Connor, and Neil Gibson, “Russia Reveals Bastion-P deployment, land attack role in Syria.”
  13. “”Admiral Grigorovich” became part of the permanent connection of the Navy in the Mediterranean Sea,” TASS, March 2, 2015, http://tass(.)ru/armiya-i-opk/4066526
  14. “Project 11356 lead frigate Admiral Grigorovich arrives at Sevastopol naval base,” TASS, June 9, 2016, http://tass(.)com/defense/881069
  15. “NATO Ships Accompanied the “Admiral Grigorovich” as it transited the Black Sea,” TASS, June 9, 2016, http:// tass(.)ru/armiya-i-opk/3352695
  16. “Frigate “Admiral Grigorovich,” arrived at the home base in Sevastopol,” RIA Novosti, June 9, 2016, https:// ria(.)ru/defense_safety/20160609/1444966479.html
  17. “Russian Warship Wipes out Terrorists with Kalibr Missiles in Syria,” TASS, November 15, 2016, http:// tass(.)com/defense/912598
  18. “Meeting with Defence Ministry leadership and defence industry representatives,” The President of Russia, November 15, 2016, http://en.kremlin(.)ru/ events/president/news/53256
  19. George Sandeman, “Royal Navy sends ships to shadow Russian fleet passing Britain,” The Guardian, October 19, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/19/ convoy-of-russian-warships-on-route-past-british-isles
  20. “Russian Admiral Kuznetsov Aircraft Carrier Returns Home After Syria Mission,” Sputnik News, February 8, 2017, https://sputniknews(.)com/ military/201702081050471393-admiral-kuznetsov-syria-russia/
  21. Nikolai Litovkin, “Russia’s Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier prepares for battle in Syria,” UPI, November 3, 2016, http://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2016/11/03/ Russias-Admiral-Kuznetsov-aircraft-carrier-prepares-for-battle-in-Syria/4171478188308/ 13

 

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  1. Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation Facebook Page, November 1, 2016, https://www.facebook. com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1823301954579219& id=1492252324350852
  2. “Russia’s state-of-the-art frigate Admiral Grigorovich sets off to Syria,” Pravda Report, November 3, 2016, http:// www.pravdareport(.)com/news/world/asia/syria/03-11- 2016/136065-russia_frigate-0
  3. Sean O’Connor, Indianapolis and Jeremy Binnie, London and Tim Ripley. “Russian carrier jets flying from Syria, not Kuznetsov.” IHS Janes 360, November 28, 2016. http://www.janes.com/article/65775/russian-carrier-jets-flying-from-syria-not-kuznetsov
  4. Jeremy Binnie, “Iskander missile launcher spotted in Syria,” IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, March 31, 2016, http://www.janes.com/article/59182/iskander-missile-launcher-spotted-in-syria
  5. Lucas Tomlinson, “Russia sends Syria its largest missile delivery to date, US officials say.”
  6. Lucas Tomlinson, “Russia sends Syria its largest missile delivery to date, US officials say.”
  7. Lt Col John R. Barnett, “The Costs of Russia’s Air Expeditionary Campaign,” Washington Institute, December 11, 2015, http://www.washingtoninstitute. org/policy-analysis/view/the-costs-of-russias-air-expeditionary-campaign
  8. Ruslan Pukhov, “Russian Air Campaign in Syria: First Conclusions,” Russia in Global Affairs, February 16, 2016, www.globalaffairs(.)ru/global-processes/Poligon-buduschego-17997
  9. Jonathan Landay, Phil Steward and Mark Hosenball, “Russia’s Syria force grows to 4,000, U.S. officials say,” Reuters, November 4, 2015, http://www. reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-russia-syria-idUSKCN0ST2G020151105
  10. “Russian Election Commission Inadvertently Reveals Russian Troop Numbers in Syria,” The Moscow Times, September 22, 2016, https://themoscowtimes.com/news/ duma-voting-figures-reveal-over-4000-russian-troops-in-syria-55439
  11. “Saudi Arabia against Iran: US offer a “cold peace”,” Strategic Culture Fund, March 20, 2016, http://www. fondsk(.)ru/news/2016/03/20/saudovskaja-aravia-protiv-irana-ssha-predlagaut-holodnyj-mir-39199.html
  12. Thomas Grove, “Up to Nine Russian Contractors Die in Syria, Experts Say,” Wall Street Journal, December 18, 2015, http://www.wsj.com/articles/up-to-nine-russian-contractors-die-in-syria-experts-say-1450467757
  13. Pierre Vaux, “Fontanka Investigates Russian Mercenaries Dying for Putin in Syria and Ukraine,” The Interpreter, March 29, 2016, http://www.interpretermag. com/fontanka-investigates-russian-mercenaries-dying-for-putin-in-syria-and-ukraine/
  14. Maria Tsvetkova and Anton Zverev, “Ghost soldiers: The Russians secretly dying for the Kremlin in Syria,” Reuters, November 3, 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-insight-idUSKBN12Y0M6
  15. Vaux, “Fontanka Investigates Russian Mercenaries Dying for Putin in Syria and Ukraine.”
  16. Thomas Gibbons-Neff, “New battlefield video shows how Russia’s elite KSO military unit is fighting in Syria,” Washington Post, December 13, 2016, https://www. washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2016/12/13/ new-battlefield-video-shows-how-russias-elite-kso-military-unit-is-fighting-in-syria/?utm_term=. deb26fc6e2f6
  17. Thomas Grove, “Russia said to Redeploy Special- Ops Forces From Ukraine to Syria,” Wall Street Journal, October 23, 2015, http://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-said-to-redeploy-special-ops-forces-from-ukraine-to-syria-1445636834
  18. Bill Gertz and Adam Kredo, “U.S. Spots Russian Commandos in Syria,” Washington Free Beacon, February 2, 2016, http://freebeacon.com/national-security/u-s-spots-russian-commandos-in-syria/
  19. Mark Galeotti, “The Three Faces of Russian Spetsnaz in Syria“, War on the Rocks, March 21, 2016. https:// warontherocks.com/2016/03/the-three-faces-of-russian-spetsnaz-in-syria/
  20. All4Syria, [“Russian Demining team arrives to Hmeimim and heads to Aleppo”], All4Syria, December 3, 2016, http://all4syria.info/Archive/367852
  21. All4Syria, [“Russia deploys reinforcements to Aleppo and opens training center for Syrian engineer troops”], All4Syria, February 1, 2017, http://www.all4syria.info/ Archive/384335
  22. “First group of Russian sappers arrive in Palmyra,” Al-Masdar News, March 10, 2017, https://www.14

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almasdarnews(.)com/article/first-group-russian-sappers-arrive-palmyra/

  1. Walid Ghanem, [“Special Chechen forces to protect Hmeimim in Syria”], All4Syria, December 8, 2016, http://all4syria.info/Archive/369246
  2. Zaman al Wasl, [“After fighting in Chechnya, special Russian forces to protect Hmeimim air base”], Zaman al Wasl, December 8, 2016, https://www.zamanalwsl.net/ news/75485.html
  3. “Sending Hundreds of Chechen Military Police to Syria on Video,” Youtube video, posted by “Information War,” December 6, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=jhXzpqsMnxc
  4. Zaman al Wasl, [“Chechen fighters rebel against being sent to Syria”], Zaman al Wasl, December 13, 2016, https://www.zamanalwsl.net/news/75583.html
  5. Nathan Hodge, “Russia Deploys Chechens to Win Hearts and Minds in Aleppo,” Wall Street Journal, February 1, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-deploys-chechens-to-win-hearts-in-aleppo-1485945005?mg=id-wsj
  6. Shaam News Network, [“Activists mock the presence pf Russian military police near Zabdani and Madaya”], Shaam News Network, February 24, 2017, http://www.shaam.org/news/syria-news/%D9%86 % D 8 % A 7 % D 8 % B 4 % D 8 % B 7 % D 9 % 8 8 % D 9 % 8 6 – % D 9 % 8 A % D 8 % B 3 % D 8 % A E % D 8 % B 1 % D 9 % 8 8 %D9%86-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%86%D 8%AA%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%­8 4 % D 8 % B 4 % D 8 % B 1 % D 8 % B 7 % D 8 % A 9 – % D 8 % A 7 % D 9 % 8 4 % D 8 % B 9 % D 8 % B 3 % D 9 % 8 3 % D 8 % B 1 % D 9 % 8 A % D 8 % A 9 – % D 8 % A 7 % D 9 % 8 4 % D 8 % B 1 % D 9 % 8 8 % D 8 % B 3 % D 9 % 8 A % D 8 % A 9 – %D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%B1%­D 8 % A 8 – % D 9 % 8 5 % D 9 % 8 6 – % D 8 % A 7 % D 9 % 8 4 % D 8 % B 2 % D 8 % A 8 % D 8 % A F % D 8 % A 7 % D 9 % 8 6 % D 9 % 8 A – % D 9 % 8 8 – %D9%85%D8%B6%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%A7.html
  7. El-Dorar, [“Russian soldiers deploy to Sarghaya after its residents flee”], El-Dorar, February 24, 2017, http:// eldorar.com/node/109127
  8. Shaam News Network, [“Russia deploys military police units to Hezbollah-controlled territories in al-Qalamoun”], Shaam News Network, February 24, 2017, http://www.shaam.org/news/syria-ne w s / % D 8 % B 1 % D 9 % 8 8 % D 8 % B 3 % D 9 % 8 A % D 8 % A 7 – % D 8 % A A % D 9 % 8 6 % D 8 % B 4 % D 8 % B 1 – %D9%83%D8%A A % D 9 % 8 A % D 8 % A 8 % D 8 % A 9 – % E 2 % 8 0 % 9 C % D 8 % B 4 % D 8 % B 1 % D 8 % B 7 % D 8 % A 9 – % D 8 % B 9 % D 8 % B 3 % ­D9%83%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9%E2%80%9D- % D 9 % 8 1 % D 9 % 8 A – % D 9 % 8 5 % D 9 % 8 6 % D 8 % A 7 % D 8 % B 7 % D 9 % 8 2 – % D 9 % 8 6 % D 9 % 8 1 % D 9 % 8 8 % D 8 % B 0 – % D 8 % A D % D 8 % B 2 % D 8 % A 8 – %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9% 84%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9 %8A-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82% D9%84%D9%85%D9%88%D9%86.html
  9. Jeremy Binnie, “ Russia swaps Su-24 for Su-25 aircraft in Syria,” IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, January 13, 2017, http://www.janes.com/article/66946/russia-swaps-su-24-for-su-25-aircraft-in-syria
  10. Bellingcat, “New Satellite Imagery Shows Russian Su-24 Jets at the Hmeimim Air Base,” Bellingcat Blog, January 20, 2017, https://www.bellingcat.com/news/ mena/2017/01/20/new-satellite-imagery-shows-russian-su-24-jets-hmeimim-air-base/
  11. Binnie, “Russia swaps Su-24 for Su-25 aircraft in Syria.”
  12. Bellingcat, “New Satellite Imagery Shows Russian Su- 24 Jets at the Hmeimim Air Base.”
  13. Dmitry Solovyov, “Russia beefs up its air force in Syria,” Reuters, September 30, 2016, http://www.reuters.com/ article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-idUSKCN12018U
  14. Dmitry Solovyov and Ellen Francis, “Russia said to send more warplanes to Syria, diplomacy ‘on life support’,” Reuters, October 1, 2016, http://www.reuters. com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKCN1201WN
  15. Bellingcat, “New Satellite Imagery Shows Russian Su- 24 Jets at the Hmeimim Air Base.”
  16. Bellingcat, “New Satellite Imagery Shows Russian Su- 24 Jets at the Hmeimim Air Base.”
  17. Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation Facebook Page, February 1, 2016, https://www.facebook. com/1492252324350852/photos/a.1492313031011448.1 073741828.1492252324350852/1703324969910252/?t ype=3&theater 15

 

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  1. Gaith Ali, [“Russia Delivers four fighter jets to the Hmeimim Air Base”], All4Syria, November 22, 2016, http://www.all4syria.info/Archive/364776
  2. Bellingcat, “New Satellite Imagery Shows Russian Su- 24 Jets at the Hmeimim Air Base.”
  3. David Cenciotti, “25 Russian long-range strategic bombers in action over Syria for the very first time,” The Aviationist, November 17, 2015, http://theaviationist. com/2015/11/17/russian-tu-22s-joined-the-syria-air-war/
  4. Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation Facebook Page, January 25, 2016, https://www.facebook. com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1700860780156671& id=1492252324350852
  5. David Cenciotti, “25 Russian long-range strategic bombers in action over Syria for the very first time,” The Aviationist, November 17, 2015, http://theaviationist. com/2015/11/17/russian-tu-22s-joined-the-syria-air-war/
  6. Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation Facebook Page, January 25, 2016, https://www.facebook. com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1700860780156671& id=1492252324350852
  7. Vladimir Soldatkin, “Update 1- Russia launches multiple air attacks on militant targets in Syria – defence ministry,” Reuters, November 17, 2016, http:// www.reuters.com/article/mideast-crisis-russia-syria-idUSL8N1DI5SR
  8. Luvas Tomlinson, “Russia’s long-range bombers strike for 1st time in a year, officials say,” Fox News, November 17, 2016, http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/11/17/ russias-long-range-bombers-strike-syria-for-1st-time-in-year-officials-say.html
  9. Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation Facebook Page, February 18, 2017, https://www.facebook. com/1492252324350852/videos/1880493205526760/
  10. Cenciotti, “25 Russian long-range strategic bombers in action over Syria for the very first time.”
  11. Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation Facebook Page, July 12, 2016, https://www.facebook. com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1768595163383232& id=1492252324350852
  12. “Russian Long-Range Bombers Conducted a Group of Air Strikes Against Terrorist Targets in the Vicinity of the Syrian City of Al-Mayadin,” Russian Ministry Of Defense, February 2, 2017, http://function.mil(.)ru/news_page/ country/more.htm?id=12110923@egNews
  13. Tom Demerly, “Six Russian air force Tu-22 bombers fly long range strike against ISIS from Russia,” The Aviationist, January 24, 2017, https://theaviationist. com/2017/01/24/six-russian-air-force-tu-22-bombers-fly-long-range-strike-against-isis-from-russia/
  14. David Cenciotti, “Russian Tu-142 appears over Syria for the first time,” The Aviationist, June 5, 2016, https:// theaviationist.com/2016/06/05/russian-tu-142-appears-over-syria-for-the-first-time-the-day-after-the-usn-launched-first-strikes-from-the-med-sea/
  15. “A Russian reconnaissance plane TU-142 spotted over rebel held territory in Idlib (Syria),” Youtube video, posted by “Stahlgewitter Syrien”, June 5, 2016, https:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=1B2JAkX8K84
  16. Thomas Gibbons-Neff, “Report: Russia flying early warning aircraft over Syria,” Washington Post, January 12, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ checkpoint/wp/2016/01/12/report-russia-flying-early-warning-aircraft-over-syria/?utm_term=.8d826cc9e3cd
  17. Anton Valagin, “Russia could use an A-50 airplane in Syria,” Rossiskaya Gazeta, January 14, 2016, https://rg(.) ru/2016/01/14/a50-site-anons.html
  18. Stubbs and Tsvetkova, “Russia builds up forces in Syria, Reuters data analysis shows.”
  19. Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation Facebook Page, March 16, 2016, https://www.facebook. com/1492252324350852/photos/a.1492313031011448.1 073741828.1492252324350852/1719440304965385/?t ype=3&theater
  20. As of October 2016, Russian Il-76 and An-124 transport aircraft were making multiple trips to Syria each month, according to data from Flightradar24.com. It is likely these transport aircraft continue to make regular trips to Syria as of February 2017.
  21. David Cenciotti, “Onling flight tracking provides interesting details about Russian air bridge to Syria,” The Aviationist, September 11, 2015, http://theaviationist. com/2015/09/11/ads-b-exposes-russian-air-bridge-to-syria/ 16

 

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  1. Stubbs and Tsvetkova, “Russia builds up forces in Syria, Reuters data analysis shows.”
  2. As of October 2016, Russian Il-76 and An-124 transport aircraft were making multiple trips to Syria each month, according to data from Flightradar24.com. It is likely these transport aircraft continue to make regular trips to Syria as of February 2017.
  3. Aqab Malek, [“With nighttime helicopters, Russia reinforces its presence in Hmeimim”], Zaman al Wasl, April 4, 2016, https://www.zamanalwsl.net/news/70057. html
  4. Stratfor, “Discerning Damage to a Crucial Syrian Air Base,” Stratfor, May 24, 2016, https://www.stratfor.com/ analysis/discerning-damage-crucial-syrian-air-base
  5. Aqab Malek, [“ Additional Russian reinforcements to al-Shaeerat airport in Homs”], Zaman al Wasl, September 30, 2016, https://www.zamanalwsl.net/news/73939.html
  6. Aqab Malek, [“Mi-25 jets in T4 Airbase”], All4Syria, December 6, 2015, http://www.all4syria.info/ Archive/275339
  7. Russian Mi-28 helicopters conducted regular airstrikes against opposition-held areas of northern Hama Province in late 2015. It is likely these helicopters were based out of the Hama Military Airport.
  8. Aqab Malek, [“Russia reinforces its troops in Homs Province”], Zaman al Wasl, September 18, 2016, https:// www.zamanalwsl.net/news/73649.html
  9. Tim Ripley, “Russian Mi-28N, Ka-52 attack helicopters spotted in Syria,” IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, March 17, 2016, http://www.janes.com/article/58863/ russian-mi-28n-ka-52-attack-helicopters-spotted-in-syria
  10. Omar Safar, [“How Russia establish its second biggest base in Palmyra”], Orient News, November 28, 2016, http://orient-news.net/ar/news_show/1 2 7 7 8 8 / 0 / % D 9 % 8 7 % D 9 % 8 3 % D 8 % B 0 % D 8 % A 7 – %D8 % A 3%D9%8 6 % D 8 % B 4 % D 8 % A 3%D8%A A – % D 8 % B 1 % D 9 % 8 8 % D 8 % B 3 % D 9 % 8 A % D 8 % A 7 – % D 8 % A 3 % D 9 % 8 3 % D 8 % A 8 % D 8 % B 1 – % D 9 % 8 2 % D 8 % A 7 % D 8 % B 9 % ­D 8 % A F % D 8 % A 9 – % D 9 % 8 4 % D 9 % 8 7 % D 8 % A 7 – %D8%A8%D8%B9%D8%AF-%D8%AD%D9%85%D9 %8A%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%85-%D9%81%D9%8A- %D8%AA%D8%AF%D9%85%D8%B1
  11. Ivan Nechepurenko, “Russia Military Helicopter Is Shot Down in Syria, Killing 5,” New York Times, August 1, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/02/world/ middleeast/russia-syria-helicopter.html?_r=0
  12. Jeremy Binnie and Sean O’Connor, “Russia forward deploys new attack helicopters in Syria,” IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, April 11, 2016, http://www.janes.com/ article/59389/russia-forward-deploys-new-attack-helicopters-in-syria
  13. Safar, [“How Russia establish its second biggest base in Palmyra”].
  14. David Cenciotti, “Russia to deploy KA-52 attack helicopters to Syria to protect Latakia air base,” The Aviationist, January 15, 2016, https://theaviationist. com/2016/01/15/russia-to-deploy-ka-52-attack-helicopters-to-syria-to-protect-latakia-air-base/
  15. “Russia’s state-of-the-art Katran helicopters to be used in battles in Syria” Pravda Report, July 4, 2016, http:// www.pravdareport(.)com/news/russia/economics/04-07- 2016/134915-russian_helicopters_syria-0/
  16. Jeremy Binnie and Sean O’Connor, “Russia forward deploys new attack helicopters in Syria.” www.mesop.de