MESOP MIDEAST WATCH: THE ISRAEL RIGHT WING GOFERNMENT & THE US
MESOP MIDEAST Review Netanyahu unlikely to upset US ties over Iran, LebanonNetanyahu / will avoid US backlash on Iran, Lebanon / AL MONITOR 5-11-22
Even if Benjamin Netanyahu succeeds in forming what may be the most right-wing government in Israel’s history, he is unlikely to unravel either the Israel-Lebanon gas deal or the US-Israel consensus on dealing with Iran.
The governing coalition that Netanyahu is likely to form will hold him hostage to the extremist Knesset members Bezalel Smotrich, chair of the Religious Zionism party, and Itamar Ben-Gvir, chair of the Jewish Power party. The two provide 14 seats toward the required 61 (out of 120) needed to form a government. With Jewish Power in his coalition, Netanyahu has 64 seats to work with.
“Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are expected to become senior ministers in Netanyahu’s government and even to serve in his security Cabinet,” writes Mazal Mualem. “Given their party’s size, they will also receive another two ministers at least. Netanyahu will need to find portfolios for them that do not cause too many problems with the international community and especially with the United States.”
Check out Adam Lucente’s explainer here on Kahanism, the ideology linked to Ben-Gvir and his followers.
However, the influence of the extreme right is unlikely to influence Netanyahu’s approach to Lebanon and Iran, at least in the short term.
Despite his critical statements about the Israel-Lebanon gas deal during the campaign as a sellout to Israeli national security, Netanyahu is unlikely to overturn it.
“Netanyahu’s geopolitical understanding remains keen,” writes Ben Caspit. He “knows the agreement is good for Israel. He realizes that abrogating it would harm Israel’s national security, its economic interests, the future of its Mediterranean gas exploration and its credibility.”
His approach to Iran may be more complicated. “Netanyahu raises it constantly in closed-door discussions,” reports Caspit. “But what is left for him to do? The current government has held off a reconstituted nuclear deal between Iran and world powers. Several brilliant maneuvers this past year by Netanyahu’s successors Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid (alongside other geopolitical developments) have so far succeeded where Netanyahu failed six years ago despite his best efforts. The 2015 deal with Iran was signed on his watch.”
“Netanyahu does not have anything to fix in terms of operational policy on Iran, either,” adds Caspit. “Bennett already shifted Israeli policy and freed it of its commitments to world powers, allowing it to operate within Iran, according to foreign media reports. Netanyahu abandoned the military buildup for a potential Iran strike and the Bennett-Lapid government revived it with significant budgetary allocations.”
Recipe for disaster for Israeli-Palestinian conflict
With regard to national security, Ben-Gvir and his followers will play their chit on the Palestinian issue.
“Rather than trying to contain the violence, to distinguish between terrorists and the general Palestinian population, Netanyahu’s partners will demand intensive action against the Palestinian residents of the West Bank,” writes Caspit.
This week Ben-Gvir tweeted, “It’s time to show them who is the boss.”
“It’s a recipe for disaster, and the last thing Netanyahu needs,” adds Caspit. “Nonetheless, he appears to have little choice.”
Ben-Gvir is also a leading advocate of Jewish prayer on Jerusalem’s Temple Mount, the site of Islam’s Al-Aqsa Mosque.
Israeli Knesset member Mansour Abbas, chair of the Islamist Arab Ra’am party, warned this week that if Jews are permitted to pray at the site, war will ensue.
Israel shifts siege from Nablus to Hebron
“Meanwhile, on Nov. 3, Israel announced that it would lift all restrictions imposed on movement and traffic in Nablus and the removal of all the checkpoints erected on the city’s entrances,” writes Mai Abu Hasaneen.
“The decision to ease the siege came after Israel killed Oct. 25 the leader of the Lion’s Den group, Wadih al-Houh, and after other group members turned themselves in to the Palestinian security services so that Israel would stop pursuing them,” adds Abu Hasaneen.
“Despite Israel’s success in killing the leader of the group, it continues to enjoy wide support among Palestinians due to its success in overcoming the internal Palestinian division, as the group includes fighters from all Palestinian factions — even Fatah and Hamas — at a time when the Palestinian factions have failed since 2007 to end the division,” Abu Hasaneen continues.
Lion’s Den fighters soon afterward attacked the Israeli settlement of Kiryat Arba, near Hebron, killing a settler. Israel responded by placing Hebron’s 220,000 citizens under siege, arresting the brother of the attacker, and preparing the home of the person accused of the attack for demolition. Another attack occurred on Israel.
“What is clear is that Palestinians in the occupied West Bank clearly have crossed the fear barrier and are carrying out more and more daring anti-Israeli attacks,” writes Daoud Kuttab in his weekly Palestine Briefing. “This has led to death and injuries to Israeli soldiers and settlers, as well as a much higher number of retaliatory deaths of Palestinians and harsh collective punishment.”
Stars aligned for Palestinian startups
“About 20 Palestinian startups traveled to Dubai this week to the fourth edition of the International Conference on Entrepreneurship in Palestine (ICEP), to pitch their business ideas to investors,” reports Salim Essaid, including video interviews with some of the entrepreneurs.
“As the world grows increasingly dependent on online payment systems and conducting business in environments such as the metaverse, Palestinian startups are finding new pathways to investment and more,” writes Essaid.