MESOP MIDDLE EAST : FORECAST OF WAR BETWEEN ISRAEL & HEZBOLLAH

6.6.2014 – MESOP – Veteran Israeli military analyst Amos Harel on Thursday assessed that a future war between Israel and Hezbollah seems increasingly likely – his exact language was that the relative quiet that has existed along the Jewish state’s northern border “since the end of the Second Lebanon War nearly eight years ago… won’t necessarily last long” – and that Hezbollah may use the deterioration to launch a spectacular ground operation against Israel.

The suggestion is not a new one, and was being publicly analyzed by Israeli military experts well over a year ago. Harel unpacked a more recent anonymously penned analysis in Israel’s military magazine Maarachot – penned by N., a lieutenant colonel in intelligence – pointing to boasts by Hezbollah leaders about “conquering the Galilee” that may be reflective of genuine intentions. The article in turn described an August 2012 Hezbollah military exercise that involved 10,000 fighters and included attacks on targets deep in Israeli territory. The concerns come alongside other ones involving Hezbollah boasts – by and large backed by genuine capabilities – that the Iran-backed terror group intends to saturation-bomb Israeli population centers. Israeli leaders have for their part been explicit that they will take whatever measures are necessary to shorten a future conflagration with Hezbollah, and that Lebanese institutions and infrastructure used by the organization will not be immune.