MESOP : Iraq Situation Report – August 28 – 31, 2015 – by: Sinan Adnan, Patrick Martin and ISW Iraq Team

Key Takeaway:   Indicators are emerging that security is deteriorating in Basra. Recent reports about targeting of journalists and demonstrators in combination with an increase of kidnappings for ransom and armed tribal confrontations constitute a warning that the state is losing control. The targeting of journalists had been a pattern that prevailed in Mosul before its fall to ISIS, leading to a media blackout on the city, which masked other indicators. The threat to Basra is not posed by ISIS, but by organized crime and Iraqi Shi’a militias. Tribal bandits have also been reported in the northern part of Basra province. These actors became entrenched in Basra province after the withdrawal of British forces in 2007, but the ISF and Coalition Forces launched a major operation to restore state-control over Basra in 2008. Conversely, the current deployment of most Basra-based ISF to the front lines against ISIS increases the challenge of maintaining security in Basra. Anti-corruption demonstrations will likely exacerbate the situation given the pressure they add on politicians in the province, who would likely act in their own interests rather than to try to curb security threats targeting journalists and protest organizers.

Meanwhile, ISIS continued its pattern of ground attacks against Haditha and Baghdadi. ISIS last attacked in the vicinity of the Haditha on August 24. The ISF and tribal militias successfully repelled the attacks, but ISIS maintains freedom of movement around these areas. The attacks nonetheless point to ISIS’s ability to maneuver in western Anbar despite coalition airstrikes. ISIS also maintained pressure upon Baiji, the target of a separate offensive by ISIS in recent weeks. ISIS likely intends to control both Haditha and Baiji ultimately. These attacks also indicate that ISIS is attempting to divert the ISF from its primary objective at Ramadi and to balance potential gains by the ISF in Ramadi with its own gains elsewhere. Unconfirmed reports that residents of Rutba held a large anti-ISIS protest in Rutba, which ISIS reportedly subdued with a mass execution, may indicate an internal security concern in one of ISIS’s assessed rear support areas. The explosion near the Trebil border crossing with Jordan, likely the work of ISIS, serves as a reminder that ISIS maintains interest in and access to the Jordanian border, which ISIS may attack with greater vigor if it fears the loss of its key Turkish border crossings in northern Syria. The presence of the ISF at the border also confirms that ISIS does not control the crossing, but rather maintains freedom of movement in the area from which to continue attacks.