MESOP INTEL SPECIAL : COUNTERTERRORISM & INTELLIGENCE CONTRA ISIS IN SYRIA & MIDDLE EAST / INCLUDING PUTIN IN EASTERN EUROPE

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) team has continued to monitor and develop insights into key national security challenges that the United States and its partners must confront in the year ahead. ISW’s recent work focused on the war in Syria, the military campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), the Russian threat in Eastern Europe and beyond, and security in Afghanistan.

The following are highlights from ISW‘s recent publications.

  • ISW’s Lead Intelligence Planner Jennifer Cafarella explained that the forces battling the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad will continue to fight after Aleppo, with the jihadists among them emerging more emboldened. She warns the incoming U.S. administration that it must avoid two policy traps: staying out of Syria entirely and grasping for partners without fully considering U.S. interests, which include preventing the expansion of Iranian and Russian influence. Read further here and register to hear Cafarella discuss the fight against al Qaeda in Syria at a January 12 Atlantic Council panel.

  • ISW’s Syria Research Analyst Christopher Kozak detailed the situation in Syria, highlighting on an updated map the takeover of Aleppo by pro-Assad regime forces, ISIS’s gains in central Syria, and separate U.S.- and Turkish-backed campaigns in northern Syria. ISW’s Syria Research Analyst Genevieve Casagrande outlined the composition and limitations of the U.S.-backed forces in northern Syria. Kozak and ISW’s Jonathan Mautner mapped Russian airstrikes in Syria and concluded that Russia and Syria strengthened jihadists by prioritizing the defeat of the opposition in Aleppo City over defending terrain from ISIS. Read further here, here, and here.
  • ISW’s Non-Resident Counterterrorism Fellow Harleen Gambhir examined in a major report how ISIS employs information warfare as part of its overall strategy. She underscores the danger posed by a future “virtual caliphate” that empowers the global Salafi-jihadi movement and that operates independently of ISIS. Read further here.
  • ISW’s Iraq Research Assistant Emily Anagnostos and the rest of ISW’s Iraq Team summarized the latest developments in the US-backed operations to retake Mosul from ISIS. They assert that the protracted battle for Mosul and an escalating ISIS attack campaign will increase pressure on an already vulnerable government in Baghdad. Beyond Mosul, there is also a growing risk of a Sunni insurgency in the vacuum of control left by ISIS. Read further here and here.
  • ISW’s Russia and Ukraine Research Assistant Franklin Holcomb delineated the Order of Battle of the Ukrainian armed forces – a key component of security in Eastern Europe – and the challenges confronting them, identifying areas where the U.S. and its allies can bolster them. ISW’s Russia and Ukraine Research Assistant Kathleen Weinberger described Vladimir Putin’s global strategy, underscoring that the Russian president intends to compel the incoming U.S. administration to accept Russian faits accomplis at the expense of American interests. Read further here and here.