MESOP INSIGHT : A Regime-Kurdish Link in the North?

MESOP NEWS “HISTORY REPEATS” : PKK/PYD(YPG) FORCES GOING TOGETHER AGAIN WITH WAR CRIMINAL ASSAD

Mutual Regime and Kurdish PYD-YPG Interest v. Turkey

February 28 – 2017 – In another twist in the four-way conflict in northern Syria, the main Kurdish militia are speaking of a link with pro-Assad forces which would reshape the economic and political situation.

The map has been redrawn in the past week in Aleppo Province by both Turkish-rebel and pro-Assad advances against the Islamic State, whose position is eroding. First, the Turkish-rebel assault captured the city of al-Bab, the last major ISIS position in the province. Then the regime’s military and allies took more territory just to the south, including the town of Tadaf and nearby villages.

An attack by Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army units failed to dislodge the pro-Assad force from Tadaf. Meanwhile, the regime’s gain reached the area controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces, led by the Kurdish militia YPG, near the city of Manbij.

SDF spokesman Talal Silo said on Monday, “On the trade front and on the civilian front it is seen as an excellent thing, because now there is…a link between the entire northern rural area.” The potential — provided that the regime can rebuild areas devastated in years of attacks — is of a trade connection between pro-Assad areas in the northwest and the farmlands and oil fields in the northeast.

Mutual Regime and Kurdish PYD-YPG Interest v. Turkey

However, the significance is far more than economic. The Assad regime is hoping to draw a line against a further advance by the Turkish-rebel offensive, which began last August with Turkey’s airstrikes, armored vehicles, and troops joining the fight against the Islamic State.

After taking a 55-km (34-mile) corridor along the Turkish-Syrian border, the offensive has moved south through Aleppo Province. It has now reached al-Bab, northeast of Aleppo city, re-occupied by pro-Assad forces in December.

The next objective could be Manbij, with Turkey wanted to drive the YPG, the military branch of the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party, back into northeast Syria. Ankara has set the Euphrates River as a “red line” for the Kurdish-led advance against ISIS, but the SDF crossed the river to the west in late 2015 and took Manbij in June 2016.

Turkey had hoped that political pressure, including from the US, would bring a withdrawal from Manbij, but Turkish officials have indicated that they will consider military operations.

Washington had no comment on the developments on Monday.

While they are not formally allied, pro-Assad forces and the YPG have co-operated at key points since early 2016, when the Kurdish militia fought rebels in northwest Syria near Aleppo city. This included attacks to establish the siege of the city in August 2016, helping lead to the fall of the opposition areas.

The PYD and YPG have hoped that they could connect the smaller canton of Afrin in the northwest with the Kobane and Cezire cantons in the northeast, but analysts believe they do not have the strength to do this without support from another faction in the civil war.

However, the regime’s military has periodically clashes with Kurdish forces in northeast Syria, particularly in the city of Hasakah, which is divided between the two sides. www.mesop.de