MESOP : GLOBAL JHAD – Islamic State becoming ‘dominant voice’ among global jihadists
Matthew Olsen, director of the US National Counterterrorism Center, said on Sept. 3 that the Islamic State (IS) “threatens to outpace al-Qaeda as the dominant voice of influence in the global jihadist movement.”
Author Week in Review – AL MONITOR – September 7, 2014 Bruce Riedel writes this week that al-Qaeda’s leader, Ayman al-Zawahri announced in his latest video the formation of al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and avoided reference to the Islamic State and what is happening in Iraq and Syria. Riedel notes that Zawahri’s stance “makes sense now that [IS leader Abu Bakr] Baghdadi and IS are so successful, at least for the moment, in Syria and Iraq. In any case, IS and al-Qaeda are now competitors for command of the global jihad.”
US President Barack Obama announced a more assertive strategy against the Islamic State and foreign fighters at the NATO summit in the past week, including a core alliance of states in the region and increased support for Iraqi military and moderate Syrian opposition forces to battle IS.
Key to this strategy will be Turkey, which is dealing with new pressure from the US and NATO allies to finally crack down on foreign fighters and supply lines to terrorist groups operating in Syria.
Semih Idiz writes that Turkey may be hostage to IS, which continues to hold 49 Turks captive at the Turkish consulate in Erbil. This column has repeatedly warned of blowback for Turkey from not shutting down the flow of foreign fighters and supplies to terrorist groups operating in Syria.
US lawmakers plan to draft legislation to authorize the use of force against IS before adjourning to campaign for the Nov. 4 midterm elections, as Julian Pecquet reports.
While Obama has not yet made a decision whether to launch airstrikes against IS inside Syria, a recent YouGov poll showed that 63% of Americans would support US military force in Syria against IS. A year ago, 62% of Americans opposed US airstrikes against the Syrian government.
The administration continues to grapple with how to reconcile the urgency of defeating IS, which it has declared as a threat to US homeland security, with the US policy of supporting a political transition in Syria that does not include Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Syria and Iraq are the two counties most directly threatened by IS and other jihadist groups. The Syrian military, which launched air attacks against IS bases in the northeastern province of Raqqa this week, is a potentially more effective lethal force against IS than the Iraqi military, the Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga and the Syrian Free Army. Obama said the moderate Syrian opposition coalition has “been, to some degree, outgunned and outmanned, and that’s why it’s important for us to work with our friends and allies to support them more effectively.”
In response to a question from Al-Monitor’s Barbara Slavin, Olsen said, “As long as Assad is in that position — a ruler with no legitimacy in his own country — we have seen that Syria is a magnet for extremism. Part of the broader strategy over the long term is a political transition in Syria.”
How the US might engineer a “political transition” that does not include Assad, while at the same time defeating IS, which is “outpacing” Al-Qaeda, remains unclear, as this column reported last week. The collapse of the Geneva II process should be case in point. And there are the humanitarian consequences of a prolonged war on Syrian territory, including the potential for more refugees and internally displaced people.
Antoun Issa reports that some Western countries are quietly exploring means of cooperation with the Syrian government to deal with the threat from IS.
Issa adds that in Syria, “IS’ gains have not gone unnoticed by [Syrian] regime supporters, many of whom were outraged at the defeat at Tabaqa [strategic airport] and are demanding action and accountability for the loss.”
Syrian government forces, meanwhile, are on the verge of sealing off the capital of Damascus from surrounding rebel-controlled areas. Khaled Attalah speaks to Hafez Nabil, a retired Syrian brigadier general who reports, “The regime is trying to secure the capital. It is establishing a security cordon around it, whether through the settlements concluded with opposition fighters, as in Barzeh, al-Qadam and al-Asali neighborhoods, or through major military operations, as in al-Maliha and now in Jobar.”
Assad’s new Cabinet
Jean Aziz writes reports on the changes in Assad’s new Cabinet:
“No changes had been made in the ministers of foreign affairs, defense, interior, media and national reconciliation. Changes were made in 10 main ministries in the economic and services sector: the ministries of internal trade, communications, water resources, housing, employment, transport, health, economy, culture and higher education. … What does this dual policy of preserving political portfolios, while changing economic ministerial posts, mean? It is obvious that Assad was trying to kill two birds with one stone: first, reconciling both economic currents and overcoming his adversaries, and second, shifting from liberalism or socialism to another national issue, namely, fighting corruption. It is as if the Syrian president believes he has overcome all political, military and security challenges, and is facing new obstacles in terms of the economy, reconstruction and the challenge to reactivate production in Syria and meet the people’s needs for general services and social justice.”
Israel’s Syria dilemma
Responding to two different incidents on its border with Syria this past week, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reportedly did not engage a fighter jet, likely belonging to the Syrian government, but did shoot down an unidentified drone.
The incidents suggested to Ben Caspit that Israel is in a quandary over whom to support in Syria:
“How can Israel know which side it should prefer? Should it choose the murderous Assad — an ally of Iran and Hezbollah but also a man of his word under whose regime the Golan Heights remained quiet for 40 years — or a mixed bag of gangs, some of which are secular and pragmatic but most of which are jihadist and completely off their rockers?”
While Caspit suggests that Israel’s current attitude is to echo Prime Minister Menachem Begin during the Iran-Iraq war and wish “success to both sides,” it is clear that Syria represents what the IDF calls “a highly complex reality.”
Jihadists in Sinai
Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, an Egyptian group which has been linked to IS, has beheaded four people in the Sinai in a continuation of its terror campaign.
Al-Monitor’s correspondent in the Sinai writes that a defector from the jihadist ranks confirms that these operations are “an attempt at international psychological warfare and to send messages to the world that they are still on the scene, as well as to spread rumors that there is no security stability in Egypt. This means delivering economic and security blows to the government in the form of retaliation.”
Egyptian authorities have recognized the potential instability in the Sinai and have deployed forces to stop any spread of IS-like organizations.
Egypt’s ‘Marriot cell trial’
Mahmoud Salem writes this week on the trial of journalist Mohamed Fadel Fahmy, who has been a contributor to Al-Monitor and other publications. Fahmy is facing a seven-year sentence for alleged involvement in a Muslim Brotherhood cell that aimed to tarnish Egypt’s reputation. Salem writes:
“The ridiculousness of the trial has also prompted a local campaign to release him, started by film star Khaled Abu el-Naga and film producer Mohamed Hefzy, despite the state of political fear paralyzing the country, and the stigma that the name ‘Al Jazeera’ still has in Egypt. Incredibly, Fahmy’s defense currently has testimony by Amr Moussa, who is a bulwark of the current regime, Naguib Sawiris — who is no fan of either Al Jazeera or the Muslim Brotherhood — and Farouk Elbaz, attesting that he is not a member of the Brotherhood and demanding his release.
It’s important to note that given his status of ‘ringleader’ of the ‘Marriot cell,’ if he is cleared of the charges, the entire case should technically legally crumble. Nevertheless, law and evidence have little to do with this case, so it remains to be seen if any of this will be effective in overturning the sentences or releasing Fahmy and his co-defendants. Law has died in Egypt with this trial; it remains to be seen if political pressure and logic died alongside it as well.”