MESOP EXCLUSIV : THE ACTUAL OPINION POLL TURKEY NOVEMBER 2016
For what it’s worth, here are the results of a recent opinion poll by Turkish survey agency AKAM (Avrasya Kamuoyu Araştırma Merkezi), which hint that Erdogan’s post-coup measures have not been as affective as has generally been reported. Notably, trust in Erdogan appears lower than other sources have suggested, and the HDP appears not to have lost much of the broad support base it had in mid-2015.
Here is a brief summary of the findings:
A slightly lower percentage voters for the AKP (45,59 %) and a higher percentage for the main opposition party CHP (30,34 %). MHP and HDP would receive each a little more than 11% of the votes. For the HDP this means, that despite the massive propaganda in the mainstream media, its voter base remained largely intact.
A fall in support for President Erdoğan. Would there be presidential elections now, 36,5% would vote for him, 36,9 against, but 17,2 % is unsure. Erdogan was chosen in August 2014 with 52%.
TRUST IN STATE AGENCIES
Regarding the trust in state agencies: 61,7 % of the respondents does not trust the government, 54,9 % does not trust the president. The least trusted agency is the judiciary (97% does not trust judges), closely followed by the media (94,9 % does not trust them. Despite the coup attempt the army is still the most trusted state institution (51%). Strangely only 29,5 % of the respondents mentions the army among those responsible for the coup [!].
Overall there is strong pessimism regarding the future. Only 18,3 % thinks that Turkey will change for the better, 52,1 % believes its situation will grow worse.
KURDISH QUESTION AND THE PEACE PROCESS
Regarding the Kurdish question 45% of the respondents believe that it was right to arrest the HDP parliamentarians, 35,7% believes it was wrong. 74,4 % believes that the Kurdish question can be solved by dialogue and not with by force, while 58% believes that again a peace process should be started. For AKP voters only there was an extra question: “When the peace process restarts I will absolutely not give my vote to the AKP again”. Only 9,6 % answer “right”, 90,4 % says “wrong”.