MESOP DOCU : Terrifying Facts / Report – The regime’s military status After 1000 days of the war


Report: The regime’s military status – After 1000 days of the war

To read / print the report in original version in English :
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hp1FmVHsY8TFnfaZOwjJpRXZodZMT9zwc-O_Xd32cF0/edit?usp=sharing

 
To read / print the report in  original version in Arabic :

 https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Lyi9YiwrmJjBJssqY7HsQQjCE6f_KJiXIu4GUjk43U4/edit

 

Index
 
P.03             – Introduction.
P.04-07      – Table crisis.
P.07             – The Graphs – links.
P.08-P11   – Spots on the crisis.
P.11-P12   – Results of 1000 days of the regime’s war on the Syrian people.
P12-P.13   – Conclusion.
P.12-P.14   – Recommendations.

 

Report: The regime’s military status
After 1000 days of the war
 
Introduction:
These are approximate numbers and percentages been adopted in this report, the allowed rate of mistake in appreciation + 5% / – 5% at most in increase or decrease, to give an approximate objective professional picture to the public opinion supported by charts and comprehensive idea with some details about the horrific facts, and how danger the military situations that the military department reached, after its national path got changed; this military department which been founded by the hero martyr Yousef al-Azmeh, the first and the last Arab Defense Minister who died defending his land and country.
Hafez al-Assad since he reached the power, he worked throw studied plan to play with the combination of the army (used the national dimension of the step that made by the national leader Akram al-Hourani, who opened the army doors for the poor and farmers, which opened the door widely to the minorities) and tipped his loyalists from the coast* to ensures his staying in power and to keep giving it to who will be after. Assad deliberately opened the door for the people of the coast and the minorities, to restricting the rest categories of the Syrian society, and to keep holding the power by the army, security, and the government departments, he implicated the surrounded military personals in corruption to ensure their blind loyalty, the eighties events and Hama’s massacre had the essential role in the consolidation of the rule of Assad era (father then the son) in the terror republic over four decades ago.
The main purpose of this report is to give the real picture of today’s reality of Syria, this is a horrific and shocking realities included what have been destroyed of planes, tanks, gear, buildings, and public or private properties, the blood that has been bellowed is a Syrian blood, and who killed whether from the regime or the opposition is a Syrian. We should work all together to prevent Syrians blood shedding, and to fix the path of the military department to its national right path under the people will.
 
Fahad al-Masri, spokesperson,
Head of Central Information Department
Joint Command of the Free Syrian Army and the revolutionary forces

Report  : The regime’s military status

 
– Table crisis
Descriptions
Approximate number or percentage
Notes
1.
The search warrants at the military security include: defectors –retarded or deserters
189.000 Soldiers, which are 61% of the army
– 6000 Officer.
– 7500 Row officers.
– 175.500 Soldiers and elements from all comunitys .
2.
Deserters on the military service or wanted to precaution service
170.000 Soldiers, which are 55% of the army
From all comunitys .
3.
Defected officers inside special camps in Jordan and Turkey
Approximately 3000 officers.
From all comunitys.
4.
Defected officers inside Syria and fully collaborate officers who are not defected yet.
Approximately 3700 officers.
From all comunity .
5.
Soldiers who still fighting with Assad
Maximum 40.000 soldiers, which are 13% of the army
Most of them are Republic Guards and elite forces form the coast.*      
6.
Soldiers remain with the army but not fighting, who the regime cannot add them to battles fears from collective defection.
38.000 Soldiers
From all comunitys .
7.
The percentage of the un-defected officers and the percentage of the defected officers of the total officers
23% Defectors
70% Un-defectors
7% Killed, wounded, detained or deserter
The un-defectors are around 24000 officers, most of them are from the coast*
8.
Unaccounted for soldiers, and from all comunitys
More than 60.000 unaccounted for, which are 19% of the army.
Most of them are soldiers Killed and buried in collective tombs, detained, or unaccounted for.
9.
Detained officers in military and security prisons for refusing killing civilians orders
More than 3050 detained officers
145 Officers from the coast included*
10.
Row officers in military and security prisons for refusing killing civilians orders
More than 4500 detained row officers
From all comunitys .
11.
Detained soldiers and deserters in military and security prisons
65.000 Soldiers
From all comunitys .
12.
Killed from the army, Republic Guards and security apparatus.
More than 135.000 killed from the army and the security
68000 killed from the coast*, which are 51% of total
13.
Daily killed soldiers under torture in military and security prisons, buried in collective tombs as numbers not with their names
Between 40 to 50 martyr daily
From all comunitys .
14.
Wounded, maimed and disabled of the army, Republic Guards, security apparatus, popular committees and Shabiha
Between 125.000 and 130.000 wounded, maimed, and disabled
Between 90.000 and 100.000 from the coast, which are around 76% of the total number of wounded, maimed and disabled of the army, the security, the popular committees and Shabiha
15.
What still remains from the national defense army, popular committees and Shabiha
No more than 45.000 elements
These are most likely to be killed, because most of them are civilians and took some fast courses on how to use weapons
16.
Un-Syrian fighters with the regime from extremist Shiites
More than 40.000 fighters
Around 60% of them are civilians mercenaries received military training short and limited periods in Iraq, Iran, Lebanon and Syria
17.
– The destroyed aircraft: fighter aircraft and hovercraft.
– During three years, there were technical incidents in various types of planes resulted in its destruction in whole or in part:
During 2013, there were 18 incident
During 2012, there were 14 incident
During 2011, there were 12 incident   
277 plane, part of it destroyed on the ground of the airport
Syria used to have 340 fighter aircraft and hovercraft, what remain now are 63  jet of all kinds and 25 of Transport aircraft, non-combat helicopters and unmanned surveillance aircraft
18.
Military airports became out of service or sieged:
– Mangh airpot / Aleppo
– Quories airport / Aleppo
– Abu al-Dohour / Idlib
– Deir ez-Zor airpot / Deir ez-Zor
– al-Daba’a airport / Homs
– Airport and the headquarters of the Department of aerial reconnaissance in Marj al-Sultan / Damascus.
– al-Tha’leh airport / Swidea
7 Airports
– reservations giving details
– al-Tha’leh military airport in Swidea is disabled and with no planes. Considered as out of services airport and is using as military base.
19.
The full and the partially destroyed armored vehicles, tanks and other types, troop carrier, etc
2200
Syria used to have 3600 armored vehicles from various types, around 1400 still remain. Around 20% of it is out of service partially for technical reasons
20.
The air defense percentage, includes the radars bases and missiles bases; partially or fully destroyed – out of service
65%
Concentrate in the North, West and the South included the capital
– Air defense in the middle area partially
– Fully in the coast area
21.
The out of service air defense forces
55%
– reservations giving details
22.
The destroyed military bases, in general include gear and crews
65%
23.
The geographic space which is out of the regime’s control
69%
46% of it is under the fully control of the Free Syrian Army
10% of it are areas under the control of the FSA and other areas are under the control of outspread forces
13% of it is under the FSA control at night, and under the regime control at day, considered as fallen militarily in the point of view of both sides.
24.
The percentage of the destroyed buildings and became out of service
Between 65% to 70%
Included the buildings, gear, crews, and vehicles
 
* Alawite Syrians 

–  Spots on the crisis
– The tragedy of Daraa’s children by taking off their nails and pick off the skin of Hamza al-Khateeb, the Syrian revolution icon, was the base step that blew up the volcano of anger and popular atrophic resentment since decades that made the protests circle wider.
– The Syrian revolution stayed fully peaceful for seven months.
– The political solution for the crisis was possible in the beginning of the revolution, but the regime was thinking in success the military and the security solution as the regime did previous in the bloody eighties and Hama’s massacre in 1982, and thought that it is possible to kill the revolution in weeks, while Assad said to his close military leaders, who are against the political solution, that he as the cover and the green light.
– The bias of armies in Tunisia and Egypt to the people side was a concern for the regime from the react of the soldiers on using violence against the un-armed people, despite that the Syrian regime was knowing the essence and the combination of the security and military institutions, that Hafez al-Assad sets up according to the size and interest of Assad’s Family.
– Iran and Hezbollah have pushed the Syrian regime to use the most violent kinds to kill the revolution, as the experience of the Iranians by suppress the public protest and as they think that they are an indomitable power.
– Iran and its tools, as Hezbollah, have contributed in suppress the protests since the early weeks of the revolution, that there were Iranian and Hezbollah snipers been reported in Syria, to strengthen the militaries at the presidential and at the main military and security vital facilities.
– The military operations in hitting protesters in ascending: Using live bullets – helicopters – tanks – artillery – missiles launchers – warplanes – barrel bombs – phosphoric and vacuum bombs – Scud missiles – chemical weapons – using  scorched earth strategy – burning forests.
– Targeting civilians in ascending: Arresting – field executions – displacing – destroying civilian neighborhoods and shelling on the towns, villages, and cities.
– The regime has sought in vigorous attempts to inciting sectarian strife: Between the mount and the plain [Druze and Sunnis] – between Sunnis and Alawites [Homs and its suburbs, Hama and its suburbs, and the coast area] – between Sunnis and Shiites [Idlib and its suburbs and Aleppo and its suburbs] – attacking mosques [burning Quran, write signs makes Assad as god, and prostrate to Assad] – between Sunnis and Christians [attacking churches, attacking clerics, and abduct bishops.]
– The military operations synchronize with gradually releasing of prisoners, who sentenced to prison for long periods in pending criminal cases to help the security
apparatus and the military units to suppress the protests and do several crimes.
– In June, 2013, after less than three months of the revolution, the regime has released around 1500 Islamic extremist detained from Saydnaya military prison and around 500 detained from Palestine security branch, who considered as elements of terrorist organizations, such as al-Qaeda and its sisters.
– From the early months of the revolution, the security apparatus started to make several explosions in many different residential areas and against some security facilities, Baath Party centers, .. etc. to tell the media that extremist Islamic groups did these explosions and crimes, then Jabhet al-Nusra [Nusra Front] started to be in the news of the regime.
– With the growing of defections in the army, the Syrian regime started in cooperation with Iran and Hezbollah to work on pushing towards arming the revolution, to create reasons to keep doing the killing and destroying till the arming circle got wider to reach a higher level throw making it Islamic, which is throw takfiri extremist Islamic gangs for overseas. To attract Arab and foreigner fighters and Jihadists from outside, it had to give sectarian incentives about Hezbollah entering Syrian and Shiite fighters from Iraq and other different areas to the war field.
– To ensure the silence of the international community about the crimes and massacres, that the regime did, it was necessary to find a strong reason to continue killing, destroying, and trying to recapture areas which lost, the regime start to implant al-Qaeda in the province of ar-Raqqa, which they gave to the so called the Islamic State in Iraq and Sham (ISIS), then ISIS has supported with new fighters, the Iranian intelligence and Maliki government helped in their smuggling from Abu Ghraib in Iraq and helped to arrive Syria.
– ISIS and other extremist groups used a style throw religion and defending Sunnis to centralize in the northern Syria, and throw providing some humanitarian aid, but soon it got uncover about its agenda and that it is working for Iran and the regime interests to distort the Sunni Islam and the image of the revolution and the Free Syrian Army, to give the regime all reasons to recapture the reins and eliminate the revolution.
– Considering the FSA an unstructured revolutionary army, has no central unified leadership, and the fighters are mixed between militaries and civilians, the regime with Hezbollah were able to hacked into many Syrian and un-Syrian military and revolutionary forces and implanted many of its elements.
– Many regional and international forces doesn’t want or scared of the victory of the Syrian revolution, the international position was in line with positions, fear, and hesitation, so the Arab, regional, and international position towards the crisis was only in statements of conviction, condemnation and denunciation, without any real efforts to save the civilians, stop the violence and terrorism of the regime, but it just provide less than the minimum in aid and helping refugees in the neighboring countries. As some forces made the disaster of the Palestinians, they made the disaster of the Syrians.
– Some international forces ran after investing the Syrian file in other files and cases, that doesn’t relate to the Syrian people and his revolution (the West and the Iranian nuclear file – missile shield file in the Balkans – Hezbollah file – Hamas file – the Palestinian file – the Iraqi file – the Lebanese file …etc.)
– The unwillingness of the regional and the international forces to end the crisis and find a solution pushed to create the so called the National Council and then the General Staff of the Free Syrian Army from military forces who does not have any military influence on the land, and then a coalition of the opposition forces, which are all a gelatinous formations that does not have any roots on the ground and out of the womb of the revolution, driven by the interests of its creators, which is means that the so called international community does not want the regime to fall, but maybe just the head and some of its staff to reedit the regime’s behaviors.
– ISIS latest crimes on the people and the rebels before Geneva II, which is driven by the regime, is to push the America-Russian sponsor on the priorities of fighting terrorism and not make serious changes in the regime or entering the transnational period with either Assad or the devastation and terror.
– The regional and the international forces succeed in its positions, hesitant, and silence to push Assad to destroy his army, country, and displace his people.
– The regional and the international forces in a standard period of time and as a result, succeed in transfer Hezbollah from a friend and an ally of the Syrians to the first enemy for the Syrians, Arabs, and Muslims, and Hezbollah is losing its public support among Sunnis in Syria and the Arab and Islamic world for its intervention by killing the people of Syrian and made the historic killing sin by transferring the gun path and the deplete of its military and humans capabilities.
– The battle of al-Quseir, which Hezbollah went throw was as its death instrument on the moral, political, and future levels, Hezbollah reached an end as military striking force, and is likely to redraw the shape and features of Hezbollah on new bases and tracks without any military arms and without the known leaderships faces and to reorganize the Lebanese house.
– After Assad used the chemical weapons, the regional and the international forces succeed in pushing him to deliver part of his chemical arsenal, which was supposed to be as deterrence and regional balance weapons.
– During the 1000 days of war, the regional and the international forces used the Syrian crisis to pull the regional papers that is assigned to Assad’s regime (father then son) to redistribute it again and to draw the tracks according to the new regional balances after Syria has changed to a loser country.
– The stalemate status – the status quo – between the regime and the armed opposition and the military balance is an order by some regional and international forces, which want
to continue in investing in the Syrian file, and don’t want more victory to the regime and more lose to the opposition, but continue in deplete the powers of all conflicted sides on the ground after adding foreign elements to be filtered on the Syrian territories, and this is on the expense of the blood, security, and stability of the Syrians.
– All should not ask about why the Syrian revolution did not achieve victory yet, but should think about how Syrians stayed 1000 days and still going.
– The outside directives and the political money played a main negative role in the opposition’s behavior and in changing the revolution path.
 
 
 
–  Results of 1000 days of the regime’s war on the Syrian people:
 
– Syria’s arrival to the highest and utmost danger levels, which threatens the national unity and the territorial integrity.
– Deplete the capacities and the Syrian military and human experiences.
– Destroying the Syrian Arab Army (after it have been changed of its national path) which has founded by the hero martyr Yousef al-Athmeh, the first and the last Arabic defense mistier dying defensing his land.
– Assad and his small circle have transferred part of the militaries to gangs of killers and criminals who are killing their people and destroying their town and villages.
– Assad has transferred the military and the security department from institutions which supposed to secure the national and the civilian’s security to armed militants to keep him in the power and in control on the country’s economic capabilities.
– Compromising on the national sovereignty and Iran penetration for the benefit of its regional project.
– Made Syria a destination for Arab foreigner, and un-Syrian armed organizations, such as al-Qaeda.
– Made Syria a center of violence, terrorism, and extremism.
– Released killers and criminals.
– Released terrorists and extremists from the Syrian prisons.
– Give Shabiha the green light to rape and steal private properties and made the so called “Sunnis markets”
– The return of “Muslims” Brotherhood demons to penetrate in Syria and implant their military arms.
– Harsh strikes on the civilians, who half of them have displaced to become refugees, destroying cities and villages, and the destruction of infrastructure.
– Displaced around 10 million Syrian to become refugees.
– Sieging and starving civilians to death.
– Horrible massacres.
– Mass graves.
– Kill, arrest, and sieging our families of the Palestinian refugees.
– Syrian citizens are subjected to humiliation in some asylum countries.
– Kidnapping, killing, arresting clerics, doctors, journalists and aid workers.
– Threaten the civil peace and coexistence.
– Arrest, kill, and wound around million Syrian.
– Depriving nearly three million children of education for the third consecutive year.
– Using internationally prohibited weapons on civilians, such as chemical weapons and Scud missiles.
– Make the danger of the chemical weapons wider, after what has exported throw border to Lebanon – to Hezbollah and Iran.
– Using missiles and barrel bombs on residential towns and villages.
– Abuse of Syrian relations with neighboring countries and Syria’s international, regional and Arab relations.
– The theft of antiquities and the destruction of many archaeological and historical sites partially or completely.
– Causing the collapse of the economy and the Syrian pound and the high cost of living
– Destroying the Syrian industry.
– Destroying forests, fields, and agricultural crops.
– Fleeing capitalists, traders and businessmen.
 
–  Conclusion:
– The gradually disintegration and collapse of almost 75% of the military and the security institutions.
– The regime’s army will no more going to withstand, despite the Iranian-Russian support.
– The disintegration and collapse of the military department is just a case of countable months, it depends on the military and field development, and the weapons that the FSA and other armed factions might have from some donors or from the weapons warehouses which can be grasped.
– Without the intervention of the non-Syrian (Iran and its tools) Assad would has fallen by at least a year.
– Without the military reinforcements by Hezbollah and the Iranian support, the inevitable downfall of the regime was possible between March and June 2013.
– Who lead the war in Syria is the military experience of the Iranians and the Russians.
– The Syrian military system is a defense system, not an offensive, almost fully based on the Russian arming before the fall of the Soviet Union, which means that most of the Syrian military system is out of service partially or completely, as a result of lack in spare parts, repairs, maintenance, or the end of its military powers, the regime mayors to fill this gape to rely on the development of missiles system in collaboration with Iran.
– There is no comparison between the huge military, financial aid that the regime is taking with the limited aid that the Free Syrian Army is receiving; the regime has its allies who gives all power reasons and several kinds of support, while the FSA is not receiving only the minimum of the minimum elements of steadfastness not victory.
– There is no comparison between the aid that the FSA is receiving with what ISIS and Jabhet al-Nusra is receiving secretly from the Syrian regime and Iran.
– There is no comparison between the military aid that the FSA is receiving with what the Muslims Brotherhood is receiving of financial and military aid in Syria to help it building its military arms.
– With the collapse of the official military institution, Syria entered under the foreign guardianship because it lost its solid constituents of stability (army – security – economy – international Legitimacy), the lack of national decision, and the dependence of the outside.
– The army will not return to its previous status, it will be established after the end of Assad era as a weak army, has no constituents, only adjust the internal security and border security.
 
–  Recommendations:
– If there is no fast solution to save Syria, so the disintegration and fully collapse of what still remains of the military institution is inevitable, which warns the breakdown of the remaining official institutions, part of loyal militaries will be transferred to leaders of sectarian gangs, and entering the chaos.
– The political solution is the only possible solution to start to get out of the crisis tunnel and to stop the violence storm and shaded blood.
– The minimum that can be accepted by the Syrian people as a way out at the current stage is the departure of Assad and his small group, who gave orders to kill and destroy.
– The only guarantee to effectively fight terrorism and extremism, fight and dismantle the terrorist gangs, and return the national, regional, Arab and international security and stability is the departure of Assad and his small group.
– The guarantee to the departure of all Arab fighters and foreign mercenaries is the departure of the non-Syrian organizations from Syria, such as Hezbollah and the extremist Iraqi Shiite militants.  
– The getting started with these Recommendations is grunter the gradually return of the refugees to their cities and villages, and to build camps inside the Syrian territories as a temporary solutions, while starting of the reconstruction.  
– Support the alternative, that the Joint Command of the Free Syrian Army and the revolutionary forces adopted throw creating a joint presidential council from military leaders and number of civilians, and a high council for security and defense to rebuild the structure of the two armies (Free and regular) and the security institution on a national bases to be helped by an experts government to lead the transnational period.
________________________________
For more info:
Joint Command of the Free Syrian Army and the revolutionary forces
Fahad al-Masri, spokesperson, Head of Central Information Department