MESOP COVERING SYRIA / IRAQ / KURDISTAN – ISW INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY: June 13-20, 2015 – Reviewing the Week

Compiled by Harleen Gambhir – ISW – This report is derived from open sources collected and processed at ISW during the reporting period. The report includes analysis on Iraq, Syria, ISIS.

Key Take-away: The U.S. and its allies face the prospect of escalating and intensifying security threats over the coming weeks now that the Islamic holy month of Ramadan began on June 17, 2015. Although ISIS suffered major losses to joint Kurdish and rebel forces at the Tel Abyad border crossing in northern Syria and to local Islamist militant factions in its Libyan stronghold of Derna, ISIS retains the ability to set the terms of an expected Ramadan offensive. In Iraq, a surge of ISIS VBIED and SVBIED activity likely indicates that ISIS may be preparing for a wave of complex, coordinated attacks across the country. ISIS also has the potential to launch a major offensive against areas held by the Assad regime or Syrian opposition fighters in western Syria.

Meanwhile, ISIS forces in the Near Abroad also achieved successes, including four simultaneous VBIED attacks against Shi’a targets in Yemen and a pledge of allegiance from the Chechnya subdivision of the al-Qaeda-affiliated Islamic Emirate of the Caucuses. ISIS is also positioned to exploit potential violence and disorder in Egypt following the reaffirmation of the death sentence for former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi. Nonetheless, U.S. efforts to address ISIS and other regional security threats suffered notable setbacks. U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter testified before Congress that U.S. train-and-equip programs for both Iraqi Security Forces and vetted Syrian rebels have struggled to obtain sufficient numbers of recruits, while the House Intelligence Committee passed a measure that could cut CIA covert support for moderate Syrian rebels by up to twenty percent. Regional tensions are also escalating now that the Kurdish forces have established a contiguous territorial stronghold in northern Syria along the Turkish border, amplifying concerns among both the Turkish and Iraqi governments with regards to growing Kurdish autonomy.

IRAQ: U.S. policy in Iraq to train and equip indigenous forces appears to be struggling. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter testified before the House Armed Services Committee that the U.S. training mission for the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) had only trained 9,000 new recruits out of an expected 24,000. Nonetheless, the U.S. Department of Defense authorized the mobilization of 450 additional U.S. trainers to Taqadum Airbase southeast of Ramadi to bolster the train-and-equip program in vulnerable Anbar province. This deployment occurs as ISIS attempted to position a wave of coordinated, complex attacks during the holy month of Ramadan. Between June 6 and June 19, 2015, ISIS reportedly deployed over forty VBIEDs and SVBIEDs targeting Baghdad, the Shi’a shrine cities of Samarra and Karbala, and ISF positions in Anbar and Salah ad-Din Provinces. Although the majority of these VBIEDs and SVBIEDs were intercepted or destroyed by ISF and Popular Mobilization forces equipped with Russian Kornet and U.S.-supplied AT4 anti-tank rockets, their heavy usage indicates that ISIS continues to dictate the terms of engagement across large swaths of Iraq. In contrast, the ISF also remains vulnerable to security deficits, as demonstrated by a security breach at the Imam Ali shrine in Najaf by an unidentified driver, as well as challenges to its operational goals from Popular Mobilization forces including Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi’a militias who have identified Fallujah as their next objective despite the Iraqi government’s sustained prioritization of Ramadi. Meanwhile, the Council of Ministers (CoM) approved a draft General Amnesty Law meant to enable the release of large numbers of detained Iraqi Sunnis and forwarded the draft to the Council of Representatives (CoR). Although the law will likely face resistance in the CoR, similar to the pushback against the National Guard Law, its passage by the CoM indicates that the government of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi is prioritizing a drive for national reconciliation. Finally, a resurgence of militant activity near the Disputed Internal Boundaries (DIBs) with Iraqi Kurdistan in Diyala Province has the potential to foment ethnic tension both between Peshmerga forces and Iraqi Arabs as well as between Iraqi Sunnis and joint ISF-Iraqi Shi’a militia forces. If they emerge, these tensions could open further opportunities for ISIS and other anti-government actors to exploit the seams between the various forces operating in the region.

See: “Iraq Situation Report: June 18-19, 2015“; “Iraq Situation Report: June 16-17, 2015“; “Iraq Situation Report: June 13-15, 2015“; “ISF Disposition in Anbar: May 15 – May 27, 2015,” by Theodore Bell and Patrick Martin, May 29, 2015; “The Fall of Ramadi Was Avoidable,” by Kimberly Kagan and Frederick W. Kagan inThe Washington Post, May 18, 2015; “ISIS Captures Ramadi,” by Patrick Martin, Genevieve Casagrande, Jessica Lewis McFate, and the ISW Iraq and Syria Teams, May 18, 2015. Direct press or briefing requests for Iraq analysts Sinan Adnan and Theodore Bell or ISIS expert Jessica Lewis McFate here.

SYRIA: Joint Syrian Kurdish YPG and Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebel forces, supported by U.S.-led coalition airstrikes, seized the ISIS-held border town of Tel Abyad in northern Syria on June 15, 2015, in a major strategic victory for the international anti-ISIS coalition. These gains severed the direct ISIS line of communication between the Turkish border and its stronghold of ar-Raqqa City, placing joint YPG-FSA forces in optimal position for a potential push south towards ar-Raqqa. The seizure of Tel Abyad has permitted Kurdish forces to establish a contiguous zone of territory stretching from Ayn al-Arab (Kobane) and the Euphrates River to Hasakah Province and the border with Iraq. However, the Turkish government regards the YPG as a “terrorist organization” and the viable contiguous Kurdish autonomous zone formed by these advances will likely escalate tensions in a manner which could drive Turkey to curtail its involvement in the wider anti-ISIS coalition. Meanwhile, other aspects of U.S. Syria policy continue to suffer from severe setbacks. The House Intelligence Committee voted unanimously to cut funding for a covert CIA operation to train and arm moderate Syrian rebels by as much as twenty percent, while U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter testified before the House Armed Services Committee that recruitment for the overt Department of Defense train-and-equip program for vetted Syrian rebels has been lackluster. Finally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on June 18, 2015, that the Israeli Defense Forces had been given “instructions to do what is necessary” to protect the minority Druze community in southern Syria amidst rumors that the Israeli government is considering a potential “safe zone” along the Golan Heights border. Although the Syrian Druze have attempted to chart a neutral course in the Syrian Civil War, the minority group has faced increasing threats over the past several weeks as ISIS, JN, and rebel forces escalated their operations in close proximity to major Druze enclaves in Suwayda Province and northern Quneitra Province. The fears held by Druze leaders have likely been compounded by regime attempts to withdraw heavy weaponry from Suwayda Province and other recent indicators which suggest that the regime may be forced to contract into its core terrain around Damascus and the Syrian Coast following several significant battlefield defeats across Syria.

See: “Control in Syria: June 19, 2015“; “The YPG Campaign for Tel Abyad and Northern ar-Raqqa Province,” by Christopher Kozak and Genevieve Casagrande, June 17, 2015; “Likely Courses of Action in the Syrian Civil War: June-December 2015,” by Jennifer Cafarella and Christopher Kozak, June 12, 2015; “The Jabhat al-Nusra and Rebel Campaign for Idlib Province,” by Jennifer Cafarella, May 29, 2015; “ISIS Control and Expected Offensives in Central Syria: May 29, 2015,” by Christopher Kozak and Jennifer Cafarella, May 29, 2015; “An Army in All Corners:” Assad’s Campaign Strategy in Syria, by Christopher Kozak, April 30, 2015. Direct press or briefing requests for Syria analysts Jennifer Cafarella or Chris Kozak here.