MESOP BACKGROUNDER : Independence of Iraqi Kurdistan likely ‘not if but when’, says U.S. general – U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart
24 May 2017 – WASHINGTON,— An Iraqi Kurdish push for independence from Baghdad appears likely to be a question of “not if but when,” in a significant challenge to Iraq’s stability, the head of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency said on Tuesday. The main Kurdish parties in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region announced in April a plan to hold a referendum on independence this year, after the defeat of Islamic State militants.
The DIA’s director, Lieutenant General Vincent Stewart, told a Senate hearing that the ability of Iraq’s Kurds to reach an understanding with the Shi’ite-dominated government in Baghdad would be essential to avoid renewed conflict.
“Kurdish independence is on a trajectory where it is probably not if but when. And it will complicate the situation unless there’s an agreement in Baghdad,” said Stewart, whose role is to provide intelligence assessments and not to craft U.S. policy.
“So this a significant referendum that comes up in October this year.”
“Once ISIS is defeated in Mosul, the greatest challenge to the Iraqi government is to reconcile the differences between the Shia-dominated government, the Sunnis out west and the Kurds to the north,” Stewart said.
“Resolving the Kirkuk oil field and the revenues associated with the oil fields, resolving the ownership of the city of Kirkuk, will be significant political challenges for the Iraqi government,” Stewart said.He warned of dire consequences should Baghdad be unable or unwilling to reach an understanding with the Kurds or the Sunnis.“Failure to address those challenges, coming up with a political solution, will ultimately result in conflict among all of the parties to resolve this and going back to what could devolve into a civil strife in Iraq,” he said.