MESOP ANALYSTS & THE FUTURE OF ASSAD’S SYRIA
I) Rather than showing an irreversible tilt in favour of the regime’s forces, the latest fighting seems to have consolidated territories held by each side. True, Mr Assad faces a less imminent threat to his strongholds, but he lacks the manpower to extend any of his gains very far. Syria remains in effect partitioned into zones held by the government and a patchwork of opponents. Short of far more potent intervention by outside forces, it is hard to see any early military resolution to the conflict,” writes the Economist.
II) “The administration’s Syria strategy is largely one of avoidance: big money for humanitarian assistance, box-checking for the nationalist opposition, incautious rhetoric to issue warnings and broadcast concern. In terms of civilian protection, consequences for friends and allies, and Russian-abetted Iranian power projection, it is a strategy that has been risky in the extreme, and all in the name of risk-avoidance. Were Syria designated a core interest, options long on the table centering on the creation, multilateral support for, and defense of a governmental alternative in non-regime Syria would be pursued with discipline and determination. It is not too late to do so. It is too late only when we decide it is; when we decide to consign Syria’s fate to criminals and terrorists,” writes former ambassador Frederic C. Hof for the Atlantic Council.
III) “The National Coalition has been unable to provide credible political leadership and strategic direction, and it has failed to build effective administrative structures and a continuous presence in liberated areas of Syria. It has no prospect of overcoming these shortcomings in the future, given its dysfunctional internal dynamics and total dependence on continued recognition by the Friends of Syria for political status and survival. The coalition is living on borrowed time,” writes Yezid Sayigh for the Carnegie Middle East Center.
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