MESOP ANALYSIS : IN POSTMODERN POSTTRUTH TIMES A CEASEFIRE IS NOT A CEASEFIRE

ERDOGAN UNDER PUTIN’S UMBRELLA  – Four important points stand out in the Putin Syrian ceasefire announcement:

  1. Syria cannot celebrate final peace – or even a total end of hostilities. Even if the 62,000 fighters of the seven main rebel groups and government forces truly lay down arms from Thursday midnight, the war against the big jihadist groups, the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda’s Syrian franchise, the Nusra Front, will go on.In the face of it, the situation of the jihadist groups has taken a turn for the worst, since the Syrian government army and its backers will now be free to focus on smashing them for good. On the other hand, some of the fringe rebel groups may reject the truce and peace deal on the table and prefer to carry on fighting in the ranks of the Islamist groups, bringing their arms with them.

 

  1. The incoming Trump administration in Washington is presented with a serious challenge in terms of world influence by the Russian president’s success in halting warfare in all parts of Syria after a breakthrough Russian-backed government victory in Aleppo. Russia has by these feats hauled itself up to a new, enhanced strategic standing in the Middle East. Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, said on Thursday that Trump’s administration would be welcome to join the Syrian peace process once he takes office on Jan. 20.

 

This was a patronizing invitation to the United States to come along to the historic peace event as just another player and not as a global superpower. Donald Trump is most unlikely to accept the invitation, unless he and Putin come to some quiet arrangement in advance.

 

  1. The continued presence of Syrian forces in Syria is an important issue in relation to foreign military participation in the war. Putin indicated that he was amenable to a partial Russian military drawdown Thursday when he met with his foreign and defense ministers to confer on the next steps in Syria. Defense Minister Andrew Shoigu is quoted as sayomg that Russia was ready to begin drawing down its deployment in Syria, which consists of several dozen fixed-wing aircraft, along with helicopters, ships and special forces soldiers.

“All conditions have been created for the reduction of the Russian group in Syria,” Shoigu said, without elaborating on how large the force reduction could be, or which forces may be withdrawn.

The Russians were pointing the way for Tehran to start withdrawing its own and Hizballah and other Shiite forces from Syria, a demand also made by Turkey, co-guarantor with Russia of the Syrian truce. Iran will most likely pretend not to hear these messages, at least in the early stages of the process of de-escalating the Syrian war.

 

  1. There is now no question that Bashar Assad remains in power in Damascus. Obama’s demand for his removal was never timely or realistic.

Courtesy DEBKA Files 30 Dec 2016 – www.mesop.de