MESOP ACTUAL ANALYSIS WEST KURDISTAN / SYRIA – RELEVANT VOICES

“Syria is going through de facto partition, but the lines will keep shifting and areas will change hands, for many weeks to come. The regime will retreat, but it will defend its red lines vigorously and tenaciously,” writes Osama Al Sharif in Gulf News.

“However much Syria fragments, its ultimate fate could depend on the regional contest between Shi’ite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia, analysts say, meaning the war could go on for years. For now, the most hardline strain of Sunni jihadism, Islamic State, controls eastern Syria and much of western Iraq, and incites its followers to commit attacks such as last Friday’s attacks in France, Kuwait and Tunisia. At the same time, Shi’ite Iran is trying to consolidate another stronghold on the Syrian Mediterranean alongside its Hezbollah bastion in Lebanon,” writes Samia Nakhoul at Reuters.

“The regime has been enduring difficult times, since Jaish al-Fatah—a joint force comprised of a number of opposition forces such as Ahrar al-Sham, al-Sham Legion and Jabhat al-Nusra—spread its control over wide swaths of land in Idlib province March 18, from the city of Aleppo to Ariha, Jisr al-Shughur and the Mastouma military base. Jaish al-Fatah’s fast advance and the arrival of the rebels to the Syrian coast, which is the regime’s main stronghold and primary human resources’ reservoir, puts the regime at risk,” writes Mohammed al-Khatieb in Al-Monitor.