Erdogan, Syrian Rebels’ Leading Ally, Hesitates

October 17, 2013 – New  York Times –  Turkey’s Syria policy is also deeply unpopular among the Turkish public and has become a domestic political challenge for Mr. Erdogan, who has been in power for more than a decade and is considering a campaign for the presidency next year.

Nearly from the beginning of the Syrian uprising, Turkey has sought to shape its outcome by pushing Mr. Assad to liberalize the political process. But when the rebellion turned violent, Turkey opened its borders to Syrian refugees, whose ranks within Turkey have swelled to more than 500,000, earning the country praise from the international community but raising ethnic tensions in the border region.

In contrast to countries like Jordan, which has kept its border tightly controlled, Turkey initially allowed the free flow of fighters and weapons to support the opposition, which was dominated at first by moderate groups but eventually overtaken by more experienced, and more extreme, jihadist fighting groups.

“They weren’t necessarily arming Al Qaeda, but they just weren’t policing their borders,” Mr. Stein said. Kadri Gursel, a political analyst here and a columnist for the newspaper Milliyet, said, “Turkey continues to deny any support for the Al Qaeda rebels, but the fact that so few precautions have been taken against them, and no obstacles have been put into place, is support in and of itself.”

Referring to the strikes on Islamist militant positions in Syria, Mr. Gursel said, “With this latest move, Turkey is trying to rebuild the image of its Syria policy and show that no security threats will be tolerated from anyone.”

More broadly, many analysts here see the failure of Turkey’s policy to result in a peaceful outcome in Syria as a rebuke to the efforts by Mr. Erdogan’s Islamist governing party — the Justice and Development Party, known by its Turkish initials, A.K.P. — to present Turkey as a pivotal player in shaping regional affairs. Particularly when seen alongside events in Egypt, where the military overthrew a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government that had close ties to the A.K.P., many say the course the Syrian conflict has taken represents a severe blow to Turkey’s regional aspirations.

“It seems that Turkey’s influence in the region is not being viewed positively in the wake of the Syrian and Egyptian crises,” Fuat Keyman, a columnist, wrote this week. “The Turkish model is not being discussed anymore. And in the context of the Arab Spring and ongoing developments in the Middle East, that means Turkey risks losing its place and role in regional politics.”

Ceylan Yeginsu and Sebnem Arsu contributed reporting from Istanbul, and Alan Cowell from London.